Tropical Depression Otis Advisories
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Scorpion
I remember back in '97(the last time Arizona got impacted by EPAC storms I think) and I saw Hurricane Nora and we were in the cone. I was amazed that we could get a hurricane in Arizona(I was very young so I didnt realize that they weaken rapidly over land). Needless to say I was quite dissapointed at the 2 hour long shower event we got out of it. This looks to be quite similar.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OTIS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
235 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OTIS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
235 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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cycloneye wrote:BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OTIS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
Looks like they'll be issuing a corrected version soon.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ35 KNHC 012040
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ45 KNHC 012048
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A
LIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI
NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65
KT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76
KT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS
ONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75
KT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS
OF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE
COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER
HAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE. OTIS IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
OTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3.
THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST
THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL
EARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A
LIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI
NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65
KT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76
KT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS
ONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75
KT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS
OF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE
COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER
HAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE. OTIS IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
OTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3.
THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST
THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL
EARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS MOVING LITTLE...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 190 MILES... 310 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS MOVING LITTLE...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 190 MILES... 310 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ25 KNHC 020230
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
TCMEP5
HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.9W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ45 KNHC 020253
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF
OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS
MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF
THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77
KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE
DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF
OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS
MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF
THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77
KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE
DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...OTIS DRIFTING NORTHWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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-
tornadochaser86
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 197
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:19 am
- Location: University of South Alabama
- Contact:
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
KNHC 021148
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL
STOM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HTROPICAL STORM OTIS OTIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...195 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD
TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL
STOM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HTROPICAL STORM OTIS OTIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...195 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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WTPZ35 KNHC 021431
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO
LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES... 185 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER
OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO
LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES... 185 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER
OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
021734
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS LOCATED FATHER
SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z...
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...210 KM...WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...230
KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT OTIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...112.2 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS LOCATED FATHER
SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z...
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...210 KM...WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...230
KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT OTIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...112.2 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES... 245 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES... 245 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS
ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY
BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A
TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS
ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY
BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A
TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ35 KNHC 022351
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR
VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR
VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST TO THE WEST
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES... 260 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR
VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...112.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
...OTIS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST TO THE WEST
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. AT 2 PM
PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER
COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES... 260 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR
VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...112.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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fasterdisaster
- Category 5
- Posts: 1868
- Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
- Location: Miami, Florida
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:A eye appears to be clearing out...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg
HOLY CRAP. What is that thing off SW Mexico?
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fasterdisaster
- Category 5
- Posts: 1868
- Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
- Location: Miami, Florida
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:A eye appears to be clearing out...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg
HOLY CRAP. What is that thing off SW Mexico?
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