Uh Oh.....we got a Deep Red CDO

[tracyswfla]

got to back ron on this one.Even a depression has a CLOSED circulation.A developing system would have a CLOSED wall of convection but that doesn't mean its going to go boom but that its CHANCES of it doing so are increasing and even then explosive development isn't a gaurantee

Agreed, I just like to give Ron a hard time

[Brent]

Well it's still 45 mph ...

officially as of 8pm, yes.... are you going to be able to stay awake for the 11?????

I'll be up til the 2am hopefully...

[Trader Ron]

Well it's still 45 mph ...

officially as of 8pm, yes.... are you going to be able to stay awake for the 11?????

Ha ha..The 11 comes out around 10:45. Anytime you want to have a race in the pool, let me know.

[shaggy]

i work graveyard shift tonight so i'll get to see the next 3 advisories but since it is not coming here i probably won't pay as much attention to it

[jrod]

You can see the center of circulation, what may be an eye on the NWS Miami's radar. You cant miss it on the loop, it is just east of the south end of Abaco Island. It appears to be moving due west or even slightly south of west to me. I think it will be a hurricane and if it slows down enough before Florida then it will be more than a minimal hurricane. I think Boca Raton will see the eye pass over them.

Link to still:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Link to loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

[JMascalino]

to really see this thing get its act together, it will need to maintain that CDO for several hours, and even expand it. This storm has a very small core of strong convection right now, and not much else due to wrapping in of dry air (probably due to the proximity of that ULL moving W into the Gulf now). If it can mix that air out, per the 5 p.m. discussion, then you'll likely see pressures fall and winds pick up ... but I doubt it will be a huge "bombing" out of the system unless its forward speed slows dramatically between now and landfall. There just isn't much water between Katrina and the FL east coast.

-Mike

That little blob looks like what was left of Dennis when he came off of Cuba... good news is time is on our hands....... Geeeez just looked at that 524mb ridge.... I would bet the farm this storm does not make a northern movement going foreward wobbles yes, but that ridge axis is sitting at 27