Hurricane Hilary at EPAC
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cycloneye
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300
WTPZ43 KNHC 201457
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT AT A FAIRLY RAPID
PACE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED BENEATH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... AND THE
MODERATE TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SEEMS TO BE GIVING WAY TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB... AND RECENT ODT ESTIMATES... HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...
WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY... AND HILARY MIGHT
HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING. LITTLE
SEEMS TO STAND IN THE WAY OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION... WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK... AND THE OCEAN
IS MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH. COMBINING THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS WITH
THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS... GFDL... AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALL FOR 90 KT BY 48 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN HILARY SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS.
LACKING ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO REFINE THE POSITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER... THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON
CONTINUITY AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/16. HILARY IS BEING STEERED
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF MEXICO AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK OF HILARY TO THE RIGHT...
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... MAINLY DUE TO THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND GFDL.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 14.3N 104.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 15.1N 106.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.9N 111.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 118.5W 60 KT
She is going to be a strong hurricane.
WTPZ43 KNHC 201457
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT AT A FAIRLY RAPID
PACE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED BENEATH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... AND THE
MODERATE TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SEEMS TO BE GIVING WAY TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB... AND RECENT ODT ESTIMATES... HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...
WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY... AND HILARY MIGHT
HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING. LITTLE
SEEMS TO STAND IN THE WAY OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION... WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK... AND THE OCEAN
IS MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH. COMBINING THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS WITH
THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS... GFDL... AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALL FOR 90 KT BY 48 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN HILARY SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS.
LACKING ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO REFINE THE POSITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER... THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON
CONTINUITY AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/16. HILARY IS BEING STEERED
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF MEXICO AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK OF HILARY TO THE RIGHT...
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... MAINLY DUE TO THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS
PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND GFDL.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 14.3N 104.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 15.1N 106.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.9N 111.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 118.5W 60 KT
She is going to be a strong hurricane.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion
By the way, per the Eastern Pacific TWO, Andy Dufresne and Red might be getting some high surf in a couple of days (hopefully they'll take that restored fishing boat out of the water) - click on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1008.shtml to view.
Frank
P.S. In case some are wondering what I'm talking about, it's in reference to the TWO's mentioning Zihuatanejo, Mexico, and the move, "The Shawshank Redemption".
Frank
P.S. In case some are wondering what I'm talking about, it's in reference to the TWO's mentioning Zihuatanejo, Mexico, and the move, "The Shawshank Redemption".
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cycloneye
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TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THINNED OUT A LITTLE LATE THIS
MORNING... BUT BURSTS CONTINUE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 55 KT... AS IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. EVEN
THOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELLED OFF SINCE THIS MORNING... THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR... AND SSTS GREATER THAN 29C... ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING TO RESUME SOON AND TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND THE INTERPOLATED GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HILARY HAS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARED TO BE MOVING JUST
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND LITTLE LESS QUICKLY... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/14. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HILARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HILARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND LATER THE NORTHWEST...
INTO AN EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH HILARY
WILL TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A
DUE NORTH MOTION TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE GFS AND GFDL
SHOW MUCH LESS OF A TURN AND INSTEAD A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.4N 103.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.8N 105.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 112.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 60 KT
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THINNED OUT A LITTLE LATE THIS
MORNING... BUT BURSTS CONTINUE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 55 KT... AS IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. EVEN
THOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELLED OFF SINCE THIS MORNING... THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR... AND SSTS GREATER THAN 29C... ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING TO RESUME SOON AND TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND THE INTERPOLATED GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HILARY HAS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARED TO BE MOVING JUST
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND LITTLE LESS QUICKLY... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/14. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HILARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HILARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND LATER THE NORTHWEST...
INTO AN EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH HILARY
WILL TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A
DUE NORTH MOTION TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE GFS AND GFDL
SHOW MUCH LESS OF A TURN AND INSTEAD A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.4N 103.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.8N 105.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 112.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 60 KT
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cycloneye
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20/2345 UTC 14.4N 104.2W T4.0/4.0 HILARY -- East Pacific Ocean
Well according to SSD Dvorak Technique 4.0 T number has been given to Hilary meaning a 65kt hurricane.But I will wait for the model guidance that will come out very soon before I change the title of this thread to Hurricane Hilary.
Well according to SSD Dvorak Technique 4.0 T number has been given to Hilary meaning a 65kt hurricane.But I will wait for the model guidance that will come out very soon before I change the title of this thread to Hurricane Hilary.
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
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WHXX01 KMIA 210043
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE HILARY (EP082005) ON 20050821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 0000 050821 1200 050822 0000 050822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 104.0W 15.2N 107.4W 15.9N 110.7W 16.5N 113.6W
BAMM 14.4N 104.0W 15.4N 107.4W 16.3N 110.8W 16.9N 114.0W
LBAR 14.4N 104.0W 15.2N 107.1W 16.3N 110.4W 17.3N 113.7W
SHIP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 93KTS
DSHP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 93KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 115.9W 19.3N 119.0W 21.0N 121.5W 21.9N 123.7W
BAMM 17.3N 116.6W 18.7N 119.1W 21.0N 120.3W 23.0N 123.2W
LBAR 18.4N 116.9W 20.5N 122.4W 21.7N 123.4W 22.5N 124.8W
SHIP 93KTS 87KTS 76KTS 63KTS
DSHP 93KTS 87KTS 76KTS 63KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 101.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 98.2W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 90NM
There you go, Hurricane Hilary it is!
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE HILARY (EP082005) ON 20050821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 0000 050821 1200 050822 0000 050822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 104.0W 15.2N 107.4W 15.9N 110.7W 16.5N 113.6W
BAMM 14.4N 104.0W 15.4N 107.4W 16.3N 110.8W 16.9N 114.0W
LBAR 14.4N 104.0W 15.2N 107.1W 16.3N 110.4W 17.3N 113.7W
SHIP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 93KTS
DSHP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 93KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000 050826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 115.9W 19.3N 119.0W 21.0N 121.5W 21.9N 123.7W
BAMM 17.3N 116.6W 18.7N 119.1W 21.0N 120.3W 23.0N 123.2W
LBAR 18.4N 116.9W 20.5N 122.4W 21.7N 123.4W 22.5N 124.8W
SHIP 93KTS 87KTS 76KTS 63KTS
DSHP 93KTS 87KTS 76KTS 63KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 101.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 98.2W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 90NM
There you go, Hurricane Hilary it is!
Last edited by WindRunner on Sat Aug 20, 2005 7:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Yep I changed the title of thread that now says Hurricane Hilary. 
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cycloneye
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004
WTPZ43 KNHC 210229
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE
SUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE
FROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
BE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS
AROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED
STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON
ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK
BUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE
GFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A
BACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT
WTPZ43 KNHC 210229
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE
SUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE
FROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
BE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS
AROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED
STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON
ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK
BUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE
GFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A
BACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT
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WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148499
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WeatherEmperor wrote:hurricane already? hmm
<RICKY>
This system has intensified very rapidly since this morning as excellent conditions has favored that.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
That island looks rather close on the maps NHC Track
WTPZ43 KNHC 210833
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE IS SLOWLY INCREASING...WITH A VERY
COLD CDO ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...WERE 77 AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. HILARY HAS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL
WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS SHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE PARAMETERS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN
THE STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...SUCH AS AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERE... ARE PRESENT.
CURIOUSLY... HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
MICROWAVE FIXES FROM SSM/I...AMSU...AND WINDSAT...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL
IN LOCATING THE CENTER. USING THESE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...280/11...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT
48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA. IN
RESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT...HILARY IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT 4-5 DAYS IN COMPARISON TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 14.6N 105.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.2N 107.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.9N 109.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.7N 112.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 114.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 55 KT
WTPZ43 KNHC 210833
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE IS SLOWLY INCREASING...WITH A VERY
COLD CDO ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...WERE 77 AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. HILARY HAS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL
WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS SHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE PARAMETERS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN
THE STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...SUCH AS AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERE... ARE PRESENT.
CURIOUSLY... HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
MICROWAVE FIXES FROM SSM/I...AMSU...AND WINDSAT...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL
IN LOCATING THE CENTER. USING THESE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...280/11...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT
48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA. IN
RESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT...HILARY IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT 4-5 DAYS IN COMPARISON TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 14.6N 105.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.2N 107.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.9N 109.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.7N 112.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 114.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 55 KT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148499
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ43 KNHC 211432
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
TWO MICROWAVE PASSES...A TRMM PASS AT 0950Z AND AN AQUA PASS AT
0907Z...SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY NOT BE QUIRE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS
IT WAS OVERNIGHT. THE TRMM PASS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN EROSION OF
THE BANDING OR EYEWALL-LOOKING FEATURE WITH A CENTER NORTH OF OUR
PREVIOUS TRACK. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM
6 HOURS AGO...ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUR THE CENTER
LOCATION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT PENDING VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND HOPEFULLY SOME MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE. HILARY IS MAINTAINING VERY COLD CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME AND HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE HILARY
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER DECAY OVER THE
COLD WATER...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.
THE MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PRIOR
TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11. HILARY IS SOUTH
OF A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT WILL SHORTLY
BYPASS THIS WEAKNESS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY AND STILL APPEARS TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE PRESENT ESTIMATE OF 11 KT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE MOTION
THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A
FAIRLY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 15.6N 106.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 107.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.3N 110.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
TWO MICROWAVE PASSES...A TRMM PASS AT 0950Z AND AN AQUA PASS AT
0907Z...SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY NOT BE QUIRE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS
IT WAS OVERNIGHT. THE TRMM PASS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN EROSION OF
THE BANDING OR EYEWALL-LOOKING FEATURE WITH A CENTER NORTH OF OUR
PREVIOUS TRACK. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM
6 HOURS AGO...ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUR THE CENTER
LOCATION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT PENDING VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND HOPEFULLY SOME MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE. HILARY IS MAINTAINING VERY COLD CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME AND HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE HILARY
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER DECAY OVER THE
COLD WATER...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.
THE MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PRIOR
TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11. HILARY IS SOUTH
OF A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT WILL SHORTLY
BYPASS THIS WEAKNESS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY AND STILL APPEARS TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE PRESENT ESTIMATE OF 11 KT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE MOTION
THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A
FAIRLY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WEST OF ACAPULCO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 15.6N 106.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 107.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.3N 110.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Hilary at least 75kt at 5pm.
WHXX01 KMIA 211838
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE HILARY (EP082005) ON 20050821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 1800 050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 107.1W 17.6N 110.0W 18.6N 112.9W 19.3N 115.5W
BAMM 16.4N 107.1W 17.9N 110.1W 19.0N 113.3W 19.3N 116.3W
LBAR 16.4N 107.1W 17.7N 109.5W 18.8N 112.0W 19.7N 114.7W
SHIP 75KTS 84KTS 88KTS 89KTS
DSHP 75KTS 84KTS 88KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 1800 050824 1800 050825 1800 050826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 118.0W 19.5N 121.8W 19.9N 123.6W 21.1N 126.3W
BAMM 18.9N 118.8W 18.6N 120.2W 21.5N 121.0W 24.3N 125.6W
LBAR 20.5N 117.1W 22.2N 121.5W 22.8N 126.0W 22.5N 129.6W
SHIP 88KTS 76KTS 62KTS 50KTS
DSHP 88KTS 76KTS 62KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 107.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 104.7W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM
WHXX01 KMIA 211838
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE HILARY (EP082005) ON 20050821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050821 1800 050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 107.1W 17.6N 110.0W 18.6N 112.9W 19.3N 115.5W
BAMM 16.4N 107.1W 17.9N 110.1W 19.0N 113.3W 19.3N 116.3W
LBAR 16.4N 107.1W 17.7N 109.5W 18.8N 112.0W 19.7N 114.7W
SHIP 75KTS 84KTS 88KTS 89KTS
DSHP 75KTS 84KTS 88KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050823 1800 050824 1800 050825 1800 050826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 118.0W 19.5N 121.8W 19.9N 123.6W 21.1N 126.3W
BAMM 18.9N 118.8W 18.6N 120.2W 21.5N 121.0W 24.3N 125.6W
LBAR 20.5N 117.1W 22.2N 121.5W 22.8N 126.0W 22.5N 129.6W
SHIP 88KTS 76KTS 62KTS 50KTS
DSHP 88KTS 76KTS 62KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 107.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 104.7W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148499
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRMED THAT
HILARY INDEED HAD MOVED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ALONG A RAPID CYCLONICALLY CURVED ARC THAT ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE BENDING BACK TO THE LEFT AND SLOWING. THE OVERALL
MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS IS 295/13. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...WHEN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AS TO HOW
HILARY WILL RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
TURNING HILARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. IN CONTRAST...THE
GFDL AND GFS SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN HILARY AND THE
TROUGH...AND INDEED TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 96
HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. SAVE FOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET/NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL BALL OF -80C
CONVECTION...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS NEAR THE CORE IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL BANDS FARTHER OUT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOT
CLOSE...90 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS ABOUT 80 KT...T4.7...WHILE
AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN
ALL THE ABOVE...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY A LITTLE...TO 75 KT. ONLY MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS
APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HILARY SHOULD
HAVE AT LEAST 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SHIPS APPEARS TO
DECAY THE CYCLONE TOO SLOWLY OVER THE COLD WATER...WHERE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR MANZANILLO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.6N 107.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRMED THAT
HILARY INDEED HAD MOVED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ALONG A RAPID CYCLONICALLY CURVED ARC THAT ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE BENDING BACK TO THE LEFT AND SLOWING. THE OVERALL
MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS IS 295/13. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...WHEN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AS TO HOW
HILARY WILL RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
TURNING HILARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. IN CONTRAST...THE
GFDL AND GFS SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN HILARY AND THE
TROUGH...AND INDEED TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 96
HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. SAVE FOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET/NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL BALL OF -80C
CONVECTION...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS NEAR THE CORE IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL BANDS FARTHER OUT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOT
CLOSE...90 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS ABOUT 80 KT...T4.7...WHILE
AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN
ALL THE ABOVE...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY A LITTLE...TO 75 KT. ONLY MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS
APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HILARY SHOULD
HAVE AT LEAST 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SHIPS APPEARS TO
DECAY THE CYCLONE TOO SLOWLY OVER THE COLD WATER...WHERE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
RAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR MANZANILLO. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
HILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.6N 107.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212240
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING TRANSMITTED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND TO EXPAND
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO
MEXICO WITHIN THE PAST HOUR INDICATE SUSTAINED 35 KT WINDS ARE
REACHING THE COAST WITHIN AN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HILARY... AND
TWO SHIPS JUST OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2230Z 16.9N 108.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT
WTPZ43 KNHC 212240
TCDEP3
HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING TRANSMITTED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND TO EXPAND
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO
MEXICO WITHIN THE PAST HOUR INDICATE SUSTAINED 35 KT WINDS ARE
REACHING THE COAST WITHIN AN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HILARY... AND
TWO SHIPS JUST OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2230Z 16.9N 108.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W 30 KT
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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