Morale boosting NHC Discussions

[recmod]

Hurricane Epsilon's "Energizer Bunny"-like tenacity resulted in a number of humorous statements in the NHC discussions. It seems like the forecasters let their hair down and had a little fun with a system they knew would impact no one:

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

...THE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY.
SSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO
GET. THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
EPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE. THE MOST
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON
WAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM
EPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS
CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE
AGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE
SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE
COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS
MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY
MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS
AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE
FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. HI-RES DATA FROM
THE 2037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME VERY REASONABLE-LOOKING 60 KT
VECTORS IN MUCH OF THE EYEWALL...AND ALLOWING FOR THE HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE STILL
SOME 65 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO STILL 65 KT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE
ON AND DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS
SWEEPING EASTWARD...AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE EPSILON IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SHEAR AWAY THE CONVECTION...LEAVING EPSILON AS A REMNANT LOW TO BE
ABSORBED WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE.
AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I
HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10
KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS
IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

FORECASTER AVILA

[recmod]

Tropical Storm Zeta also provided a couple humorous comments:

TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE
ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR
FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD
NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE
GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA
SUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ACCORDING
TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.


FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE
WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION
AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL
SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW
TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER AVILA

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING
STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER
LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS
A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT
THINGS TO SAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE
TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT
32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT. ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG
53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
"SHOULD" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION
REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

--Lou

[yzerfan]

Avila had a good series on Epsilon.

Cue the Monty Python voice:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT
EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...
MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS
CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON
NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT
MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD
VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN
SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO
LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR
EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT
HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY
KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE
THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB

[yzerfan]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU DEC 08 2005

...EPSILON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...IT IS ABOUT TIME...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1115 MILES...1795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...26.4 N... 40.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

[yzerfan]

A couple from Vince:

HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE
SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T
NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY
LONGER IS UNWARRANTED.
AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW
OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR
ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO
PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[caneflyer]

AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW
OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR
ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


I wonder how many people got the Hemingway reference?

[yzerfan]

WTNT44 KNHC 220221
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...DESPITE A DECREASE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. A 21/1914Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE DEPRESSION HAD A SURFACE WIND FIELD ENVELOPE AT LEAST 500 NMI IN DIAMETER...WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS LOCATED IN THE DRY SLOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE LACK OF INNER CORE CONVECTION ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...BASED ON A 10-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION USING PASSIVE AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF TD-4 WAS SOUTH OF 12N LATITUDE AT THAT TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL AND THE BAM MODELS...REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY... THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCELLENTLY WRONG THUS FAR. TD-4 IS CURRENTLY AT LEAST 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE 18Z GFS FORECAST POSITION FOR 22/00Z...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE BUILDING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IF TD-4 DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS 20N LATITUDE WITHIN 4 DAYS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MISS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

FORECASTER STEWART

[yzerfan]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT.

(snip)

FORECASTER AVILA

[NFLDART]

Absolutley Fantastic....

[Hurricaneman]

WTNT44 KNHC 220221
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...DESPITE A DECREASE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. A 21/1914Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE DEPRESSION HAD A SURFACE WIND FIELD ENVELOPE AT LEAST 500 NMI IN DIAMETER...WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS LOCATED IN THE DRY SLOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE LACK OF INNER CORE CONVECTION ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...BASED ON A 10-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION USING PASSIVE AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF TD-4 WAS SOUTH OF 12N LATITUDE AT THAT TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL AND THE BAM MODELS...REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY... THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCELLENTLY WRONG THUS FAR. TD-4 IS CURRENTLY AT LEAST 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE 18Z GFS FORECAST POSITION FOR 22/00Z...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE BUILDING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IF TD-4 DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS 20N LATITUDE WITHIN 4 DAYS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MISS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

FORECASTER STEWART

Excellently wrong

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks guys, that was very entertaining and a nice break for this impending storm! Appreciate it!

[Josephine96]

Maybe I'll try to find 1.. These are funny.. My favorite has to be.. "franklin, the storm not the forecaster" [/i]

[Frank2]

Yes, sometimes they inject funny comments to put a human spin on things, but, they can't do it too often, because the TCD is a product that is distrubuted to the aviation and marine community, and, is only supposed to contain factual (objective) information or terminology.

I know it sounds dry, but, that's how it needs to work for all to understand it, since many read the products who are in other countries...

Frank

[GulfBreezer]

Wow, that was the first time in a long time that I have read a full thread devoted to the tropics and seriously had a good belly laugh the whole way through!! Keep them coming.......these are priceless!!

[westmoon]

This is just what the doctor ordered. Thanks

[x-y-no]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

...

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[yzerfan]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

EVEN AS FLORENCE SHOWS SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE CENTER REMAINS MADDENINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AROUND A PRESUMED BUT INVISIBLE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER TO ITS WEST. AN 18 HOUR AVERAGE GIVES 295/8 FOR THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...SO I'LL JUST PLAGIARIZE THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE MAJOR CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY IS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER THE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
WESTWARD...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORENCE IN THREE DAYS OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE IN MAKING FLORENCE A MAJOR HURRICANE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wc is my initials]

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

EPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS.

How can anyone forget that?

[Jim Cantore]

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

EPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS.

How can anyone forget that?

you can't I'll never forget thinking, "My god, how the heck is this strengthening"

[SouthFLTropics]

I couldn't help but add this piece from today's 9/8/06 11:00AM discussion regarding Florence...

NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.
IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE
PREVAILED.