GFDL says Cat2 hurricane heading toward LA???

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drezee
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#41 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:05 pm

Image
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Derek Ortt

#42 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:12 pm

GFDL only uses GFS initial conditions. Forecast fields from the GFDL are from the GFDL
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Rainband

#43 Postby Rainband » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:30 pm

After Jeanne. The Nogaps is what i will watch :wink:
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#44 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:51 pm

Too much shear and the system is too large to develop rapidly IMO. Could be a rain maker though.
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drezee
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#45 Postby drezee » Fri Oct 08, 2004 6:03 am

looks possibel this morning!! What a blowup!!!
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kevin

#46 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:22 am

An insanely cold blowup!
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LAwxrgal
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#47 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:45 am

I take my statement back...something is going on down there...someone mentioned the GFDL calling both Frances' decrease in intensity and Ivan's increase in intensity going toward the islands... this deserves a BEAR WATCH...I hope and pray this doesn't verify...I'm hoping for just a soaker here... the last thing we need down here is a Cat 2 cane bearing down on us...
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CaneCurious
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#48 Postby CaneCurious » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:06 pm

Some are now saying that we won't get the effects we thought... we need the rain and a little excitement without the devastation would be nice.
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#49 Postby Derecho » Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:12 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:I take my statement back...something is going on down there...someone mentioned the GFDL calling both Frances' decrease in intensity and Ivan's increase in intensity going toward the islands... this deserves a BEAR WATCH...I hope and pray this doesn't verify.



The GFDL intensities, bad in general even for a classical normal hurricane, are COMPLETELY worthless for a badly sheared hybrid piece of garbage, as the thing in the GOM is now.

The GFDL is designed for and basically assumes a normally-structured tropical system.

I'd completely ignore GFDL intensities for 95L. And even for a "normal" hurricane GFDL intensity forecasts are considered quite poor and a real disappointment, overall.
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