HUGE PROBLEM WITH NHC

[Scott_inVA]

Two points:
1. There is not going to be civil unrest if a large hurricane hits. There was no panic during Floyd, Isabel, Lili or Opal.
2. No. The elections on Tuesday have nothing to do with it, Heather. I just take exception to trying to avoid a "panic".
3. The fact this may hit S. Fla is out there on the internet. The NHC isn't exactly keeping a secret, if they do.

Floyd was a huge circle-jerk.

Inland hotels where I am filled up with people from coastal VA, NC, MD, even SC.

Largest peace-time evac in US history. Thousands of vehicles needlessly filled with people leaving Florida who were NOT in evac zones. While it was generally known Floyd would not be a direct hit on Florida, if the storm did come inland over central or northern FL, God only knows how many would have been killed in vehicles trapped on roads. My gravest concern was/remains Frances spins up to a Cat-5 early week and by Thursday night appears to track directly to Florida as a 4. It's Labor Day Weekend and I guarandamntee this will be a huge mess.

Scott

[c5Camille]

you are so right scott...
and the media would fave a field day...

there are gonna be a lot of "beach hotel"
cancelations come tuesday and a lot of
"inland hotel" resevations being made...

[JTD]

Let it be stressed my argument is more that NHC is not holding anything back right now but should never hold back anything.

However, the 11 pm forecast track is highly suspicious.

[Patrick99]

Or, the 11PM forecast track could simply reflect their current thoughts. I have been screaming that there's not going to be enough of a ridge to hit S. FL. Maybe they now feel the same.

[c5Camille]

and what are your suspicions, Jason?

[JTD]

Well, Camille this is tough. I think Max Mayfield, Ed Rappaport, Stacey Stewart are the best forecasters NHC has ever had (among the best) and are great with the media, public, etc. But with the model guidance this evening trending WEST and the NHC forecast trending NORTH, it's pretty clear what they are doing. (making a forecast track based on the politically correct thing to do-NOT reality).

How could this track possibly be where they have it at 120 hrs when the models are pointing in the other direction?

[SwampDawg]

The amazing thing is that some people bash the NHC, but they still go looking for the next advisory that comes out. It's almost like hating the police and calling 911 for help.

**Just my 2 cents**
I survived Adrew, but my house didn't

[JTD]

When the NHC does it's job like they did at 11 am and 5 pm, I have no trouble.

But the 11 pm package was, IMHO, garbage.

[Derek Ortt]

jason,

I will say it again, you didnt see all of the 0Z data. They ar eleft of much of the guidance

[Guest]

Would just like to say, NHC is being rediculed just a lil too much. They have the communities best interest in mind and are just as concerned as the next man as to where danger will strike. However, too much is being expected of the NHC. They are a government sponsered agency broadcasting to a large following, in essence the same as a large group of people in a convention hall. They, just like the general public, are held accountable for yelling fire in a public place. Now if your intrested in weather forecasting that is specific to your needs, that is where the private weather sector comes into play. However, it will cost you money! Dr. Aaron Williams, or better known as Dr. Bill Willams from the University of South Alabama runs a private weather organization, tayloring forecasting to the local businesses that subscribe to his service. His business is called Coastal Weather Research.

http://www.southalabama.edu/cwrc/

Besides, we have way too much data at our disposal and great people like MWatkins to give us all we need to make informed decisions.

Brian