Tropical Wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[LarryWx]

The 00z surface analysis has the wave axis at 23W.

https://i.imgur.com/ykMDfVe.jpg

How's the SAL there now?

I found the SAL. This pic shows that this wave/low is on the back edge of this particular SAL outbreak:



It is easier to see here:

[Teban54]

Interesting that some barbs are showing different directions.

https://i.imgur.com/cYGJe9I.jpg

Imagine if this closes off faster than PTC4

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS is weaker/flatter and further south than the 18Z with this as of hour 132.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for gradual development of this system while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the
early to middle part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

TWD.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from
23N southward, through a 1010 mb low over the southeastern Cabo
Verde Islands at 16N23W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between
22W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development for the next five days.

[Kingarabian]

Well the 00z Euro towards the end of its run, started to organize this wave while having it moving due west towards Florida.

Its a long way out, but the synoptic pattern as showed by the models poses a SECONUS risk or Greater Antilles risk, especially if waves take more time to develop.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro… Likes this wave, look at the size of the moisture envelope as it nears Caribbean and towards SFL. Starts developing in SE Bahamas. The NHC has this area as a lemon for a reason. It’s only @5 days from NE Caribbean!

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d3thHkWJ/ecmwf-mslp-pwat-watl-fh108-240.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vZt2VD1G/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh168-240.gif [/url]

00z Euro… Likes this wave, look at the size of the moisture envelope as it nears Caribbean and towards SFL. Starts developing in SE Bahamas. The NHC has this area as a lemon for a reason. It’s only @5 days from NE Caribbean!

Very dangerous area for the SE United States especially if the development happens west of 60.

[jlauderdal]

Well the 00z Euro towards the end of its run, started to organize this wave while having it moving due west towards Florida.

Its a long way out, but the synoptic pattern as showed by the models poses a SECONUS risk or Greater Antilles risk, especially if waves take more time to develop.

Last week the models had stout ridging for the 2nd half of august into September, which appears to be holding up as we move forward. Earlier this week we had an EC trough for the first time since June, but that has been replaced by the Bermuda High which looks to stick around for a while. The 1935 Labor Day Storm in the Keys was legendary, there is a monument in Islamorada, check it out if you are in the keys.

[skyline385]

Interesting that some barbs are showing different directions.

https://i.imgur.com/cYGJe9I.jpg

Imagine if this closes off faster than PTC4

With how this season has been going, good luck with that

[Blown Away]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… Trend is to show increased moisture.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

TWD 2 PM.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25/26W
from 09N-22N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 180 nm W and 60 nm E of the wave axis from
14N-18N. Scattered showers are within 300 nm W of the wave axis
from 08N-12N. Recent altimeter data near this wave show seas of
7-8 ft from 06N-15N between 22W-28W. This system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development within the next five days as it
continues moving westward to west-northwestward at a similar
forward speed.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Curious as to why NHC still has this labeled, let alone at 0/20. Model support has fallen off a cliff over the past few suites. At the very least I would have lowered odds to like 0/10 and reduced the formation area. The next wave appears be more intriguing.

[LarryWx]

Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that this weak low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this AEW is at 26W.
What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW?

[Category5Kaiju]

Curious as to why NHC still has this labeled, let alone at 0/20. Model support has fallen off a cliff over the past few suites. At the very least I would have lowered odds to like 0/10 and reduced the formation area. The next wave appears be more intriguing.

I agree; that next wave does seem interesting, perhaps this current AOI may just be sacrificial?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro and GFS have this as a weak low well NE of the Northern Lesser Antilles heading NW, Both models now recurve and develop this in the long-range once it is out of the MDR and in the subtropics with a possible threat to Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

The weak low is now to the west of the CVs, which can clearly be seen here at 18Z/2 PM EDT approaching 30W and is just SE of the end of this MDR SAL outbreak as both move westward: