AtlanticWind wrote:I just saw the NAM has development of this system.
That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model
Incoming 200 kts system
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AtlanticWind wrote:I just saw the NAM has development of this system.
That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model
skyline385 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:I just saw the NAM has development of this system.
That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model
Incoming 200 kts system
Category5Kaiju wrote:skyline385 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:I just saw the NAM has development of this system.
That closes the deal with me as I think we can all agree that it is the best tropical forecasting model
Incoming 200 kts system
I genuinely wonder how bonkers that model would get if we actually did get a sub-900 mbar hurricane. Would it be forecasting a system with a sub-800 mbar core?
skyline385 wrote:Hammy wrote:skyline385 wrote:Agreed, the GFS while overtuned does catch every system. All the systems which have formed so far, GFS was the first to detect them.
The EURO in particularly has been so bad with intensity forecasts at genesis that the NHC verification plot isn't even able to compare it with the rest of the models (out of range) which is absolutely hilarious.
For Caribbean systems especially, it might actually be ideal to go with the Canadian model--it's been the sane middle ground of sorts between the Euro's south and west bias (which makes a world of difference where land interaction is involved) and the GFS's tendency to lift north too much and over-intensify. The last batch of upgrades have done wonders in correcting it's tendency to blow up literally ever cloud into a hurricane--a mantle the GFS now carries.
That the GFS does pretty much develop everything makes the fact that it catches everything quite unremarkable, and essentially useless as a forecasting tool.
Calling it useless because of a few false flags 120+ hours in the future (which no one should be looking at seriously) is a stretch when it was the best track model last year and did good intensity wise as well, only behind the hurricane models.
skyline385 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:TS genesis is not a strengh in any models , the GFS is usually over aggressive and the EURO misses a lot
of systems and so does the UKMET.
But last year the GFS was superior to all the models on track , which is one of the most important (along with intensity
on developed storms) to the NHC.
I think since it recent upgrades it is generally the most reliable of all the models now but of course none are
Infallible and why a blend of models provide the best forecast.
In the case of this system I think the GFS has sniffed out a decent development chance, but the intensity is
likely overdone . JMO
Agreed, the GFS while overtuned does catch every system. All the systems which have formed so far, GFS was the first to detect them.
The EURO in particular has been so bad with intensity forecasts at genesis that the NHC verification plot isn't even able to compare it with the rest of the models (out of range) which is absolutely hilarious.
Spacecoast wrote:12z Euro ensembles: - no mucho
https://i.ibb.co/2t9HcLj/ecma.jpg
tropicwatch wrote:The upper level winds will need to calm down for anything to really happen.
https://i.imgur.com/V68DueY.gif
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