When will Fred form?

[Stormybajan]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Still no Fred at 5 pm...which means the August 1st-10th group are on their last fingers and chewing rapidly

[ElectricStorm]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Still no Fred at 5 pm...which means the August 1st-10th group are on their last fingers and chewing rapidly

Actually they're done unless there's a special advisory before 0z which isn't going to happen

[Stormybajan]

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Still no Fred at 5 pm...which means the August 1st-10th group are on their last fingers and chewing rapidly

Actually they're done unless there's a special advisory before 0z which isn't going to happen

Yep...HURDAT rules even if PTC6 is named tonight at 8pm AST, it would be at 00z August 11th UTC in the hurricane database. Happy to say I wasnt the only person wrong with my prediction lol

[aspen]

Recon recorded TS winds, so we can say that we got our first TS-force system since Elsa in the August 1st-10th time frame.

[zhukm29]

I love it when storms decide to form on the border of these polls. Now we get to go through the nitpick of whether we are considering the time zone the storm is in, or UTC, or when recon first found TS winds, or when the storm was first designated by the NHC, etc.

[StormPyrate]

I love it when storms decide to form on the border of these polls. Now we get to go through the nitpick of whether we are considering the time zone the storm is in, or UTC, or when recon first found TS winds, or when the storm was first designated by the NHC, etc.

Pretty much everyone but a few got this one wrong

[AnnularCane]

RIP me and the 38 other people who voted for late July. The suppressive MJO was more formidable than I anticipated.

RIP me also, but with NONE of the global models showing development for the next 2 weeks, August 1st-10th people might also start chewing their nails right now
Surely this was one of the stronger suppressive MJO signals we've seen to cause such a lengthy break possibly. Maybe this incoming enhanced MJO phase will be the opposite end of the spectrum, right in time for peak season

Still no Fred at 5 pm...which means the August 1st-10th group are on their last fingers and chewing rapidly

Just imagine if there was money involved.

[tolakram]

Who were the other 2, besides me? Winners!

[AlphaToOmega]

Who were the other 2, besides me? Winners!

Not me, but RIP the people who said August 21 and later

[aspen]

Who were the other 2, besides me? Winners!

You also correctly predicted that the next development in the Atlantic would most likely be in the western half of the basin, following the path of the MJO similar to 2017 (west Atlantic with Franklin, then a little further east with Gert, and finally Irma near Cape Verde a few weeks later).

[Category5Kaiju]

RIP me, one of the 39 late July folks. I literally had zero idea that we would see absolutely no NSs then, even if it was a quick spin up , slop storm.

[Ubuntwo]

Who were the other 2, besides me? Winners!

I always like going with the outlier vote.

[cane5]

Who were the other 2, besides me? Winners!

I always like going with the outlier vote.

Freddie is flaring up a bit. Still has to go through the straits so we might see something a bit stronger if the low in South Florida dies out.