2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[CyclonicFury]

With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.

is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?

Not really, but it is uncertain.

[NotSparta]

With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.

is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?

Long range EPS keeps it around for about a month, could change though

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for May,June and July is out and looks bad for those who like to track many systems.Maybe a factor for this model to show very high pressures in Atlantic may be the forecast for ENSO of warming conditions at Niño 3.4.

[CyclonicFury]

The ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for May,June and July is out and looks bad for those who like to track many systems.Maybe a factor for this model to show very high pressures in Atlantic may be the forecast for ENSO of warming conditions at Niño 3.4.

The Euro has a known high bias for Atlantic SLP. It’s also interesting to note that over half of the Euro ensembles still have ENSO negative by July.

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s the March 2017 Euro Pressure Outlook for the JAS period for anyone looking to see how thinks were shaping up last year.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Here’s the March 2017 Euro Pressure Outlook for the JAS period for anyone looking to see how thinks were shaping up last year.

Kinda make one want to laugh (from a misguided data perspective, certainly NOT given the very contrary results of the 2017 Atlantic Season destruction and fatalities). I'll give all the kudos to the EURO for its mid range modeling, but I just don't give much credence to any of the Global's anymore when viewing their long long long range projections. As for present ENSO and leaning toward possible NINO projection, I'd only buy into the belief that ENSO temps will likely wane toward less cool and near average. Even if ENSO continues to gradually track into the warm bias a little, assuming that we do not see a significant spike before August then I would not anticipate any significant impact to Atlantic cyclone development. Remember this too, there does seem to be a several week to month delay from appreciable ENSO conditions to affect the Atlantic. Even if we were to see a more significant El Nino begin to develop Sept/October, I don't believe the Atlantic would feel significant impact until possibly mid October/November. Just my thoughts, anyway.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/967893075786952704




 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/967898012512079872

[stormlover2013]

not good for the gom!!

[cycloneye]

Is very warm in GOM that is over +1.3C, but there will be swings up and down as it always occur so let's see how are things when it counts after June 1.

[Alyono]

we really shouldn't spend that much time worrying about SST anomalies in late February. We've seen many times that these things can flip quickly as we enter into May

Think we're just adding extra stress to our lives worrying about February anomalies. They mean nothing in terms of if we will see an active season

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/969706566524944384

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/969706566524944384

Wonder if it'll stay that way or if it's because of winter.

[NDG]

Regarding the ECMWF's MSLP forecast for the Atlantic this early on in the year it has been most times biased with higher pressures than what it has turned out to be in years when it has had a difficulty forecasting the ENSO.
IMO.

[cycloneye]

Nice graphic on second tweet.

@MichaelRLowry
Last week the Gulf of Mexico recorded its warmest weekly anomaly on record at 1.5°C above the 1982-2011 average. That's some serious warmth.





 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/970789803586449409




@MichaelRLowry
And for those who prefer the bouncing ball, here's how this week's anomalous Gulf warmth compares to all other weeks on record.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/970820758623617024

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Negative NAO has erased the below average anomalies in the MDR as expected:



By the way, 'the Euro shows above average sea pressures across the Atlantic for peak, could be a slow season' could be copy and pasted for every season since 2012. It's best not to pay it any mind.

[wxman57]

SST anomalies are still well below-normal in the MDR east of 35W. Even though temps are well above normal in the Gulf, I see no temps as high as 80F yet. An "X" degree anomaly in early March doesn't necessarily translate to an "X" degree anomaly in August-September.

[CyclonicFury]

Negative NAO has erased the below average anomalies in the MDR as expected:

https://i.imgur.com/xZszlw9.png

By the way, 'the Euro shows above average sea pressures across the Atlantic for peak, could be a slow season' could be copy and pasted for every season since 2012. It's best not to pay it any mind.

I’m currently leaning to a slightly above average season since most of the models are showing ENSO remaining neutral for peak. There just doesn’t seem to be enough time for a significant El Niño to develop by the peak of hurricane season.

[wxman57]

My cold-mongering coworker and I were looking over Pacific/Atlantic SST anomalies of the past (since 1981) to try to find a good analog for what's out there now. The best analog, SST-wise, appears to be 2014, mainly from the central Pacific through the east Atlantic. Can't find any other year that even looks close. Of course, this doesn't mean that we'll only have 8 named storms this season. SSTs are only one factor.

[CyclonicFury]

March NMME shows a “not bad, not great” setup for he Atlantic. ENSO-Neutral without a strong AMO signature. Also shows mostly near average precip anomalies across the MDR.

[Kingarabian]

My cold-mongering coworker and I were looking over Pacific/Atlantic SST anomalies of the past (since 1981) to try to find a good analog for what's out there now. The best analog, SST-wise, appears to be 2014, mainly from the central Pacific through the east Atlantic. Can't find any other year that even looks close. Of course, this doesn't mean that we'll only have 8 named storms this season. SSTs are only one factor.

[img]http://wxman57.com/images/compare.JPG[img]

Also both years had very similar warm pools at the sub-surface.