Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

[Steve]

I do not think this season is struggling too much. It is behaving as expected. A near normal season. Sure not every invest is developing but this is not 2005 where every single spin is going to become a TS or hurricane. By the end of this season we should have an average amount of storms. We already have 8 storms and 4 hurricanes.

Agreed. There are always aggravating and mitigating circumstances in every season including 1933 and 2005.

[gatorcane]

Peak of season and count them - 3 upper-level lows - one in the Gulf, one off SE Coast of US and one by 93L near Puerto Rico - so there is shear basically just about over the entire Gulf and SW Atlantic right where these invests are so for now we go into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow with no real threat from any hurricanes to the islands or to the United States. Seems like we still have some lingering "El Nino" effects this season even at the peak on top of a lot of mid-level dry air that was noted across the basin even months before the peak.

[psyclone]

Something worth keeping in mind... peak season is tomorrow during which there is a 90% historical likelihood of having a named storm somewhere within the Atlantic basin. It looks like this year stands a good chance of being the 1 in 10 year where there is not a named storm (cue the loser horns). By any measure, that is a pitiful peak season display.

[TheStormExpert]

Peak of season and count them - 3 upper-level lows - one in the Gulf, one off SE Coast of US and one by 93L near Puerto Rico - so there is shear basically just about over the entire Gulf and SW Atlantic right where these invests are so for now we go into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow with no real threat from any hurricanes to the islands or to the United States. Seems like we still have some lingering "El Nino" effects this season even at the peak on top of a lot of mid-level dry air that was noted across the basin even months before the peak.

The year of the TUTT! I think the last season I've seen this many ULL's during an individual season was 2010, though didn't it clear out in time for the peak of the season which explains the 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

[Steve]

Just the same, there are 2 orang areas and a yellow.


Gator,

Go back and look at some of the analog seasons with western bias. The upper level lows aren't lhe deep half basin wide TUTTs you see in El Niño years. They are usually concentric and part of the overall pattern though there may also be deep basin troughs. In neutral years, sometimes they stay whole and back off west or southwest, and sometimes they split. Often in La Niña years they back west and split. I don't see them as an absolute negative.

[Hammy]

I think we need to look at the season as a whole, and where we are so far, rather than focusing on a single day of the year (September 10) and judging the season's activity based on that. Lets use 2000 for instance, we had one very short-lived storm between August 24 and September 11--a fairly active season with nothing in the peak of the season, with struggling storms (moreso than this year) preceding the middle of September. And the season ended at 15/8/4, and was only at 5/2/1 so far (vs this year's 7/3/1 even if you exclude Alex).

[Steve]

I think we need to look at the season as a whole, and where we are so far, rather than focusing on a single day of the year (September 10) and judging the season's activity based on that. Lets use 2000 for instance, we had one very short-lived storm between August 24 and September 11--a fairly active season with nothing in the peak of the season, with struggling storms (moreso than this year) preceding the middle of September. And the season ended at 15/8/4, and was only at 5/2/1 so far (vs this year's 7/3/1 even if you exclude Alex).

Agree 100%. It's a very interesting year thus far, and I'd lay money we are nowhere near over with. But you know how people are these days. Many are chatty and just want to say something and others have no patience. Still others want to guess and be right. Whatcha gonna do? :shrug:

[psyclone]

I think we need to look at the season as a whole, and where we are so far, rather than focusing on a single day of the year (September 10) and judging the season's activity based on that. Lets use 2000 for instance, we had one very short-lived storm between August 24 and September 11--a fairly active season with nothing in the peak of the season, with struggling storms (moreso than this year) preceding the middle of September. And the season ended at 15/8/4, and was only at 5/2/1 so far (vs this year's 7/3/1 even if you exclude Alex).

I don't disagree and I suspect we're going to end up with at least an average season when the dust finally settles but to have no named storms on 9-10 is noteworthy. it just is. I'm cognizant of the fact that different regions of the basin have higher risk at certain points. For my region, the highest risk period is mid Sept through October so I'm just entering the most dangerous time. For Florida (peninsula) October features a very high risk overall. We stop looking east and start looking south. And while the western Caribbean has been dead in October in recent years, there's potential every year. You can bet I'm paying attention.

[gatorcane]

Yeah I am still thinking we will get a whopper in the Western Caribbean when all is said and done and it could be October that we see it.

[Hammy]

I did a bit of digging, and I'll add that 1985 (which several have pointed to as a possible analog) had no storms for the two weeks following Elena--only two short-lived depressions between Sept 4-17.

[wxmann_91]

I think we need to look at the season as a whole, and where we are so far, rather than focusing on a single day of the year (September 10) and judging the season's activity based on that. Lets use 2000 for instance, we had one very short-lived storm between August 24 and September 11--a fairly active season with nothing in the peak of the season, with struggling storms (moreso than this year) preceding the middle of September. And the season ended at 15/8/4, and was only at 5/2/1 so far (vs this year's 7/3/1 even if you exclude Alex).

Eh, 2000 was a La Nina year, which tend to favor back-heavy seasons. Not the best analog to this year. 1985 might be a decent comparison though.

[centuryv58]

I think its stopped struggling.

[chaser1]

I think its stopped struggling.

Now, THAT is some good tropical cyclone humor LOL! I suppose there's something about a tropical systems that virtually develops over land, that helps quelch discussion regarding "tropical cyclones not being able to form".

[abajan]

I think its stopped struggling.

You got that right. Two storms and a TD (likely to become a storm later today) simultaneously, plus the fact that we're already up to the letter J, can hardly be characterized as "struggling".

[cycloneye]

In terms of ACE the North Atlantic basin is below normal despite there have been 10 named systems. So far it has been quantity over quality.

[Steve]

I do not think this season is struggling too much. It is behaving as expected. A near normal season. Sure not every invest is developing but this is not 2005 where every single spin is going to become a TS or hurricane. By the end of this season we should have an average amount of storms. We already have 8 storms and 4 hurricanes.

Good post. But I don't think it's going to be average except maybe IH and H. Named storms will be much higher than the long term average.

[Kazmit]

While the number of storms in this season will be above-normal, the ACE and overall strength in storms will probably be below average. A lot of the storms have been short-lived and weak (think Colin and Danielle). With 10 storms the Atlantic has only managed to produce a single major so far. But we'll see what happens.

[JaxGator]

Yep, again, just like that, we have 3 Tropical Cyclones at once. That's the weather for you. And some posters have been saying this the season of naked swirls and the Atlantic sucks but the weather makes the final say. Just a few examples.
Earl:
http://video.newsserve.net/v/20160804/1 ... update.jpg

Gaston:

http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hir ... espowe.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/08/ ... 216756.jpg

https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/20 ... 409&crop=1

http://www.livescience.com/images/i/000 ... size=660:*

Hermine:
http://news.justinweather.com/wp-conten ... 20x202.jpg

[JaxGator]

I think we need to look at the season as a whole, and where we are so far, rather than focusing on a single day of the year (September 10) and judging the season's activity based on that. Lets use 2000 for instance, we had one very short-lived storm between August 24 and September 11--a fairly active season with nothing in the peak of the season, with struggling storms (moreso than this year) preceding the middle of September. And the season ended at 15/8/4, and was only at 5/2/1 so far (vs this year's 7/3/1 even if you exclude Alex).

Agree 100%. It's a very interesting year thus far, and I'd lay money we are nowhere near over with. But you know how people are these days. Many are chatty and just want to say something and others have no patience. Still others want to guess and be right. Whatcha gonna do? :shrug:

Those are good points Hammy and Steve. 2000 didn't have a storm in July and yet it was above-average. And I'll admit when I'm wrong too. I don't try to be right. Just putting an opinion out there, with some facts if there are some. And that's true too, it's been a interesting year for sure.

[Hammy]

I'll add to this thread, that this is the first time since 2012 that we've had three systems of storm intensity or greater active at the same time, so by all parameters, this year is doing better than the last three.