Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[wxman57]

The environment in its path is quite hostile all the way to the western Caribbean. It's dominated by considerable dry air in the mid levels due to widespread subsidence.

[SFLcane]

Would have to stay south if it wants chance to develop stable air just to its north. Not expecting much to develope

[TheStormExpert]

Euro runs

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=024

Thanks!

[blp]

Nice rotation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[blp]

The environment in its path is quite hostile all the way to the western Caribbean. It's dominated by considerable dry air in the mid levels due to widespread subsidence.

Wxman57, the GFS and CMC have it staying north of the Carribean and most of dry air. I am with you if it takes a route into the Carribean it is toast.

[TheStormExpert]

Mid-Level Dry Air does not seem to be as big of an issue as the SAL that is in it's path.

[cycloneye]

TAFB at the 12z surface analysis adds a low. Maybe NHC starts to mention it later today at the TWO's

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: If this were to develop it looks as if a strong trough would be waiting off the E. Coast to turn it out to sea being only a potential threat to Bermuda, MAYBE Canada. Seems like the pattern may be switching to one very similar to the one present during the 2010/2011 seasons?

It does look like there will be a another large trough over the Western Atlantic next weekend as advertised by all the global models but chances are this system probably won't develop beyond a weak low anyway because of the unfavorable environment further west.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows this low fizzling out by 48 hours. Conditions appear too hostile plus it is early to be expecting development out that far anyway. These waves should start have more of a chance in the MDR about 3-4 weeks from now.

[TheStormExpert]

What is the overall steering pattern going to be like for the next 2-4 weeks?

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Pouch 03L looks good today and is beginning to rotate. It only has until Monday/Tuesday before it is affected by SAL. We will see..



Synopsis for Atlantic and other basins: http://goo.gl/FxWsKm

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[blp]

12Z ECMWF shows this low fizzling out by 48 hours. Conditions appear too hostile plus it is early to be expecting development out that far anyway. These waves should start have more of a chance in the MDR about 3-4 weeks from now.

I agree it is early. There may be an invest in the next day or two and then it will get crushed by the dry air that is already present past 40W.

This is a good indicator IMO though that the MDR activity may be closer to Normal this year.

[northjaxpro]

12Z ECMWF shows this low fizzling out by 48 hours. Conditions appear too hostile plus it is early to be expecting development out that far anyway. These waves should start have more of a chance in the MDR about 3-4 weeks from now.

Totally agree. Conditions are simply too hostile out there in the MDR and I won't start paying attention out there until about a month from now.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

[Dean4Storms]

Somewhat impressive TW, drawing the ITCZ further northward for mid-late July.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has our TW with a low in 72 hours...

[cycloneye]

The future for pouch 03L doesn't look too bright as you can see as dry air is dominating the MDR.The wave has some precipitation rate high but not a lot to protect it from the dry air.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan

[TheStormExpert]

Was starting to wonder why the NHC couldn't at least show this area with at least a 0% chance of development over the next 2-5 days. Don't see the chances getting any higher than 10-20% though.

[floridasun78]

will nhc make this invest?