Will the recurving pattern in Atlantic continue thru Sept?

[gatorcane]

It's quite possible this pattern with the stubborn western Atlantic trough may recurve all three systems we have out there currently. As I mentioned when Danielle was in her seminal stages in the far eastern Atlantic....we will likely look back at this season and thank that pesky trough as we see major hurricanes recurve.

[wxmann_91]

Something to keep in mind: climatologically, 1 in 6 CV-origin storms ultimately makes landfall in the U.S.

So if you ask me, yes, chances are that CV storms thru Sept will continue to recurve. May one slip through? Yeah, and 97L/future Fiona has the best shot of doing that.

[jinftl]

It's all about location location location....a pattern of troughs approaching the east coast could pull a system in the western carribean up over florida like wilma. All comes down to where: 1) storm is, 2) where trough and ridge are, and 3) what's in that steering path...

From NHC report on Hurricane Wilma:

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida.

[gatorcane]

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Looks like pesky trough will have curved all 3 August systems away from the U.S before all is said in done. I think Earl may get close to the US but still believe the worst of it stays offshore. The trough was not strong enough to spare the islands though, even though the islands did not get the brunt of Earl as the worst of it stayed north as well.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think there is anything pesky about a trough keeping storms away from the coast and we are nowhere near done with Earl. He could still come very close to the coast. It's no surprise that the system behind Earl will go out to sea. It's way too close to Earl.

[weatherSnoop]

Impact Weather webinar suggested increased activity in Caribbean and Gulf after 9/12. That is when the troughs get pesky

[KatDaddy]

Joe B has stated the same on his pay-per-view site this morning. An active GOM on the way by mid-September

[Recurve]

Any thoughts on the steering setup and tracks of Felix and Dean, as I remember it the way they stayed south and just kept driving west was unexpected, as in, it was expected they would head northwesterly and just kept going. Was the Atlantic high just that strong, broad and far south, and if that was the case, how come the tracks, if I remember right, were not anticipated very well, at least at the beginning?

[Frank2]

Very possible, if not from the polar trough that's been nosing the subtropical high eastward most of the summer, it'd be due to the Fall cold fronts that are already beginning to move off the east coast, so very possible, because with Fiona we'll now have three systems recurving through the trough, and like the 1981 season that's a pattern that often does not change quickly and in fact sometimes deepens with each recurving system...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1981_ ... on_map.png

[gatorcane]

The recurving pattern seems as though it continues well into September. I'm basing this statement on what the global models are showing for heights across the western Atlantic. A large trough looks like it will setup shop by this time next week it appears. That should keep a large and powerful igor at sea. Things can change with the models but so far they have shown this trough run after run. The euro shows some more ridging than the gfs but only one run so we will see if that continues in future runs.

[psyclone]

Gatorcane,you may very well be correct but this matters less and less (at least for us Floridians) as we head into mid september. it's getting to the time for us to look south, not east, for our threats. that east coast troughy pattern could quickly turn from a storm deflector to a storm magnet as we move into the second half of the season.

[Steve]

>>The euro shows some more ridging than the gfs but only one run so we will see if that continues in future runs.

In a lot of years, it's been right with the GFS always looking to recurve at 45, 50, 55, 60, etc. But this year the Euro has definitely overplayed western ridging since July. It's a weaker signal, but most of the models at 500 continue to show off and on low pressure in the NE alternating with the occasional ridge moving through the Westerlies. I think there will be a reinforcing shot coming off the east coast, but it doesn't appear permanent. At the same time, estimated future heights also continue to fall in the Caribbean and Gulf over the upcoming 30 day period (at least the runs through this past weekend). But I'm more or less settling in the camp that most systems developing east of 65 will probably end up being fish with the initially weaker stuff bringing the potential farther west. That's the way the quick rule of thumb usually works, but with this season obviously not stopping anywhere near 9 named storms, there will probably still be CONUS threats.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon what the NHC is forecasting this year, I'm sure there will be a monster hurricane that will slam into the USA somewhere, the question is where and when will this monster happen???

Although the flooding in Dallas from the last Storm has been terrible, the USA has been very very lucky that we we haven't been visited by a monster cane this year yet. As the clock ticks on, our luck is about to run out....

[Stormcenter]

The clock is ticking folks on possible "major" U.S. hits.

I'm not saying it won't happen but only that possibility decreases everyday
that goes by. IMO

You can't fight climo. The troughs will only get stronger and stornger.

[Weatherfreak000]

The clock is ticking folks on possible "major" U.S. hits.

I'm not saying it won't happen but only that possibility decreases everyday
that goes by. IMO

You can't fight climo. The troughs will only get stronger and stornger.

What's with the sensationalism? We still have at least two solid months of hurricane risk for landfall in the U.S. I think its a little early to be saying the possibility is at all decreasing. I'd say wait a month.

[KWT]

Stormcenter...thats the FEAR...we are heading closer and closer to the time when the cAribbean lights up in La Nina years and you really don't want troughing because all that will do is create systems that will lift out of the Caribbean and right into the Gulf states...

No doubt though this season patterns has been very constant with even the NHC now noting it as well...I doubt any other systems from the CV systems comes close to the US...Earl was the one that broke through in the end...the main threat comes from closer to home people!

[wxman57]

Yes, the clock is ticking. The eastern Atlantic will be quieting down and development will shift west into the Caribbean and Gulf, most likely.

[gatorcane]

Well the GFS is showing potentially 3 Cape Verde system out there by this time next week -- and all of them seem to be recurve candidates (though its long-range and things can change).

[Category 5]

I'm wonder if anyone has a statistic, what percentage of storms that form east of 30W recurve?

[Scorpion]

Not a slam dunk everything recurves... Euro seems to be sniffing at a pattern change