Non-tropical Low over W. Atlantic

[Cainer]

Shear is low over the system:


The latest ASCAT descending pass shows a very elongated area of low pressure, but with some 35 MPH barbs


None of the models seem too keen on tropical development, only the GFS gives it a (very shallow) warm core, probably due to the fact that it has it sitting over the GS longer than the other models. Not much convergence with the system, and that could be a significant hindrance as it tries to make the transition to a warm core. Still, the waters are warm enough to support a subtropical storm, so it's something to keep an eye on nonetheless. We're forecast to get some decent rains from this system this weekend in Nova Scotia, which is great news because we're in the middle of a moderate drought. That on top of the obnoxiously warm temperatures of the past week have made working outside all day in jeans more than a little uncomfortable!

[HURAKAN]

Nice vorticity

[tolakram]

Made 'landfall' briefly, now heading back southeast it appears.



Satellite loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[OuterBanker]

FYI, we are under the dead center. Blue sky surrounded by beautiful tropical clouds. Winds ssw around 20. Dew point around 75 temp around 80 (same as water temp). Perfect day, except for the occasional much needed tropical shower. I'll take this for our tropical experience this year.

[tolakram]

No doubt there's a surface low of some sort.

[ROCK]

yep there is a LLC there and as soon as it gets back over the water, I expect it to fire off some convection...no model support really....CMC sees it breifly before it gets scooped up out to sea...

[ROCK]

FYI, we are under the dead center. Blue sky surrounded by beautiful tropical clouds. Winds ssw around 20. Dew point around 75 temp around 80 (same as water temp). Perfect day, except for the occasional much needed tropical shower. I'll take this for our tropical experience this year.

your in the eye!!

[drezee]

I am surprised no one is on this. This could pop. An outflow channel is setting up...

[poof121]

I am surprised no one is on this. This could pop. An outflow channel is setting up...

Wonder if it'll be on the next TWO at 2 pm EDT...

[HurricaneBelle]

Joe Bastardi on Twitter:

Earth to NOAA. Take a look at the NC coast
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Spiraling TSTORMS with an eye features that has looped in from off the water.. Asleep at the switch.. this is now warm core

It really does look to be tightening up on radar as it approaches Hatteras from the NNW.

[tolakram]

Back over water.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15



Notice the eddy/circulation to the east.

Radar:

[tolakram]

NWS Discussion:

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
vertically stacked low just inland of Outer Banks is drifting S with
banded convection and small eye-like feature on radar. This feature
will continue to produce scattered-broken convective activity into early
afternoon...and raised probability of precipitation to likely for southern Outer Banks. Latest model
data continues to indicate low eventually lifting NE late afternoon into
evening as upper level energy drops in and pushes out upper low. Some
adjustment to cloud cover and maximum temperatures Outer Banks...otherwise kept chance
probability of precipitation for scattered convective coverage middle to late afternoon.

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
upper low will get pulled into approaching upper level trough early
tonight as surface low weakens. ...

[Cyclone1]

Well, it doesn't look especially like a tropical storm, but if I saw that on my local radar, I'd certainly be intrigued by it. I think they should give us atleast a 97L.

[HurricaneBelle]

Latest from Hatteras:

Temperature 71 F (22 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.81 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
Pressure tendency falling rapidly

[xironman]

Back over water.

Barely, Pamlico Sound is super shallow.

[tolakram]

Looks to me like dewpoints dropped as the center passed. Probably still non-tropical. Would be nice to have a pro opinion.

Regardless it appears it only has, at most, a day left.

[KWT]

Hmmm looks non tropical to me still as well, also you can clearly see either a main depression or a secondary depression which is certainly an interesting feature.

[drezee]

I am surprised no one is on this. This could pop. An outflow channel is setting up...

On further analysis, it is still embedded in the upper low.

[drezee]

but it is warm-core...check out the pressure fall of 2.4mb at hatteras and rise in temp and dewpoint on passage...

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHSE.html

Ladies and gentlemen we have a warm core system...

[ROCK]

but it is warm-core...check out the pressure fall of 2.4mb at hatteras and rise in temp and dewpoint on passage...

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHSE.html

Ladies and gentlemen we have a warm core system...

I agree....but since its moving out soon maybe the NHC will ignore it....