GOM Hurricane soon?

[SFLcane]

18z gfs run is lowering pressures in the sw caribbean and along with the euro model both seem to have a pretty favorable upper level pattern next week. This is certainly something to keep an eye on since the european model has been pretty consistent with some type of tropical genesis in the sw/nw caribbean sea.

[MGC]

Yes, it will be an interesting week with two waves transversing the Caribbean. Only time will tell if any one of them developes.....MGC

[Brent]

Odds going up per NHC

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ronjon]

Say it ain't so - nightmare scenario from 00Z ECM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010062100!!/

[wxman22]

Euro shows worse case scenario thank goodness this is still a long ways way

[LaBreeze]

Which model was showing the possibility of this "system" going to Texas? Or has this changed?

[Ivanhater]

Holy crap

[Brent]

at the 0z Euro.

[Ivanhater]

Longrange canadian...exact same as Euro

[Brent]

This image should say it all.

[KWT]

950!!!

What on earth is the ECM playing at, that being said conditions would be very favourable if the ECM run is right and thus a hurricane would be possible in the E.Gulf.

ECM creates a Major hurricane, unreal!

system seem to stem from from the wave at 20% right now as it moves into the W.Caribbean so its quite a possible evolution to need watching.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L soon?

[ronjon]

Latest 06Z GFS still shows no signs of development - I'll get more concerned when we have both the Euro and GFS on board for development. The Euro has had some notable false alarms in the past.

[KWT]

If it presists Hurakan then its quite possible they will, but its got to last a little longer I feel before we get an invest out of this.

Still the whole of the S.Caribbean once again is quite unstable if anything does develop then the conditions in the Caribbean won't be at all bad.

[ronjon]

First VIS on caribbean wave.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[Thunder44]

I would rely a little more on the ensembles this far out. The 0z Euro Ensemble Mean is little more consistent than the OP run with a much weaker system heading for either South TX or Northern Mexico. It keeps enough 500mb riding in the Northern GOM in place to keep whatever might develop, from turning northward.



Loop:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[KWT]

The ensembles are only going to give a general idea though, they haven't got quite the same resolution so on average they will have a weaker system.

[perk]

Which model was showing the possibility of this "system" going to Texas? Or has this changed?

The Euro showed a system much further south Texas/Mexico yesterday.

[KWT]

Interesting to see that the CMC/ECM are so similar into the longer ranges, what sort of synoptic set-up does the 06z GFS have?

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,interesting wording.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN