Euro/Models develops African wave

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian



Edit: Beat me to it Luis

[BigA]

12Z NOGAPS also closes off a weak low to the east southeast of the Lesser Antilles near the end of the run.




I tend to think shear is too high for much of anything anytime soon. As my name is Alex, I'd be a bit disappointed if my namesake storm is a feeble, sheared tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

I found interesting this discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE SEEN OVR THE ERN ATLC ONE ALONG 35W AND
ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE ALONG 25W. AN 1134Z ASCAT PASS THIS
MORNING SHOWED A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
ALONG 35W AND A WINDSAT PASS AROUND 0738Z SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH THE ONE ALONG 25W. ALTHOUGH JUNE TC CLIMATOLOGY
IS STRONGLY AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES IN THIS PART OF THE ATLC
THE EXPECTATIONS OF A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ME LOOKING AT
THIS PART OF THE ATLC EARLIER THAN I WOULD NORMALLY DO. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 35W. WHILE
THE WAVE LACKS SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION AND HAVE NOT PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A DISTURBANCE THE ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A REALLY NICE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH. GIVEN THE LACK
OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE ATLC AND WARM SSTS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AT ALONG 50W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN ATLC.

[cycloneye]

This is the most agressive run by GFS on this wave so far,although is the 18z. I always wait for the 00z and 12z because those are the most complete runs as those have more data.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps

[wx247]

Hmmm... quite a few models latching onto this it seems, at least in some form. Time to watch now...

[ColdFusion]

[cycloneye]

[BigA]

18z WRF will have a go with this one

[Aquawind]

This is the most agressive run by GFS on this wave so far,although is the 18z. I always wait for the 00z and 12z because those are the most complete runs as those have more data.

Exactly and tonights 00z and the 12z runs could be very interesting..Circulation is a key component (lol) and the San Juan NWS mentions it even..

[cycloneye]

New ASCAT data shows what may be a LLC forming around 33W.The pass was made at 8:09 PM EDT or 0:09 UTC time.

[Aquawind]

Looks to be the half a LLC..even if elongate it's close..also pretty far south. I can understand why the models might be picking up on it..for now.

[cycloneye]

A weak low pressure has been added to the 06z surface analysis.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1042.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-38W. THE WAVE IS
ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
06N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-36W.

[Emmett_Brown]

IR satellite pic shows growing blob near 35W...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Looks to be the half a LLC..even if elongate it's close..also pretty far south. I can understand why the models might be picking up on it..for now.

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.

Right now it is under the influence of a large upper anti-cyclone which is bringing the wave light Southerly shear really helping to allow the convection to build out and fan out to the north. But the concentration of convection is way south folks and I actually can't really see what the few models see on this system.

There is large swath of strong SW shear out ahead of it starting around 50W and models keep this shear there for quite a while, at least through the next week. The shear in the Caribbean is quite hostile as well. The models that do something with it are just not good at forecasting tropical cyclonegenesis. The Euro really doesn't develop it looking at the latest runs.

I highly doubt this becomes a named system anytime soon. Likely another tropical wave that traverses through the Atlantic that flares up from time-to-time. Probably will flare up when it gets east of the Lesser Antilles as it encounters the SW shear.

[cycloneye]

This might be a invest today or tommorow and nothing more,but if it is only that,is a telling sign that things will be very active in the MDR when the meat of the season arrives.

[xironman]

Just coming into the picture with convergence and divergence


Vorticity in the area as well, though it is way south

Shear 96 hours out, if it stays a low runner then it is not so bad.

No sign of the desert conditions that have plagued the last few chances

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[KatDaddy]

It looking a little better than this morning. Could this be the first of the season??????.........time will tell.