Wave in Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Some curvature seen at ASCAT graphic.

[srainhoutx]

Bear watching IMHO. While normally I would not pay much attention to CV development this early, in this hyper active season it is warranted.

[drezee]

Where is wxman57 when you need him? People have tropical hopes and dreams that need to be dashed...Clock is ticking...

[gatorcane]

Where is wxman57 when you need him? People have tropical hopes and dreams that need to be dashed...Clock is ticking...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would guess Wxman has little interest in this area and neither do I. Certainly, a nice area of convection indeed -- however it is not unusual to have these types of seemingly impressive areas of convection develop this early in the hurricane season especially this close to Africa, only to poof within 24 hours. SSTs are running warmer than normal, and there seems to be a nice upper anticyclone out ahead of it at 200MB located at about 10N and 30W as analyzed by the 18Z GFS. That said, SAL is also out ahead of it and SSTs do actually cool some as it heads west towards the middle of the MDR along and just below 10N where this area will traverse. There is no model support after checking the various global models and it is in a non-climatologically favored areas, not to mention it is below 10N embedded within the ITCZ. So at this time I am giving this just about a 0% chance of development.

[cycloneye]

Bear watching IMHO. While normally I would not pay much attention to CV development this early, in this hyper active season it is warranted.

[shortwave]

fantastic sat pics!! this one still embedded with the itcz. close to the right flavor though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... a preview of the season to come, don't expect more from this wave

[cycloneye]

Closer view of latest image at 0130 UTC June 3.

[somethingfunny]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



(Bears not watching)

[KWT]

Convection slowly weakening now, but it was still a nice little preview of what is to come later in the season thats for sure!

[cycloneye]

Convection slowly weakening now, but it was still a nice little preview of what is to come later in the season thats for sure!

I agree.This was the first salvo of things to come later

[Steve H.]

Also notice central atlantic blob watching in a bulge in the ITCZ at approx. 8N/48W. High pressure building to its north.

[KWT]

Wave has now totally poofed, but it got to 25W before this process occured which is a good start...does show we aren't quite there yet, which isn't all that surprising given its early June!

[Ivanhater]

The thunderstorms may have dissipated for now, but the wave itself is still trucking along and may spark something in the Caribbean or Epac.

[cycloneye]

Wave axis around 22W.Plenty of dust to the north and west.

[KWT]

The thunderstorms may have dissipated for now, but the wave itself is still trucking along and may spark something in the Caribbean or Epac.

Yeah I suspect given its latitude its perfect material for the EPAC.

It'd be interesting to see a system like Hurricane 2 of 1933 which pretty much formed on the coast of SA and moved into the far south of the Caribbean in late June.

[johngaltfla]

Convection slowly weakening now, but it was still a nice little preview of what is to come later in the season thats for sure!

I agree.This was the first salvo of things to come later

What blew my mind was the storm that hit Oman. IF that's a hint of what the CV season could look like as the ITZ fires up, WOW!

[KWT]

The ECM shows a wave in the Caribbean in about 7-8 days time, wonder if its this system thats currently in the E.atlantic?

[cycloneye]

Guess what peeps,the wave I have been following is still alive and well with a weak turning.By the way,its forecast to bring very bad weather to the NE Caribbean a week from today as the AFD of San Juan says.

[wx247]

ENSEMBLES SHOW TROF
FILLING/WEAKENING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH GFS INDICATING A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE BY NEXT THU.

Is this what you are referring to Luis?