Possible GOM/Caribbean development

[brunota2003]

Looks like the convergence is just north of the flare up. What is the upper level divergence and the wind shear doing?

[boca]

The upper flow takes this system up towards Florida. I'm watching this closely now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

[cycloneye]

Looks like the convergence is just north of the flare up. What is the upper level divergence and the wind shear doing?

Shear is dropping

[boca]

Looks like the convergence is just north of the flare up. What is the upper level divergence and the wind shear doing?

Shear is dropping

Do you have a link to that shear map?

[brunota2003]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

Click "Shear Tendency"

[wxman57]

Shear may be dropping, but it's still high in the region and it increases as the disturbance moves NE:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

By the time it enters the Gulf, wind shear is in the 40 kt range, with 50 kts across Florida. So it's chances of development decrease significantly as it moves northward. That bright red on the map posted above is a jet core moving across the central to southern Gulf and Florida. Very strong winds aloft.

[boca]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&time

Click "Shear Tendency"

thank you

[Blown Away]

Kinda looks like the broad circulation is still over the Yucatan coast? That blob of convection has maintained for the past few hours!

[cycloneye]

57,do you see this being tagged as invest later today?

[JonathanBelles]

57,do you see this being tagged as invest later today?

I wish it had never been undeclared as an invest.

[wxman57]

57,do you see this being tagged as invest later today?

I plotted surface obs in the area and see no sign of a surface circulation. Pressures in the region are not too low - about 1012 mb - and they don't appear to be falling yet. The farther it moves NE, the greater the shear. I identified it on our discussion this morning but said the main threat was some heavy rain across the FL peninsula tomorrow night and Wednesday. It's only chance of development would be where it is now, and wind shear is in the 20kt range there. Probably 10% chance of development or less. If that blob of storms persists, then NHC may give it a slight chance of development and declare an invest just to check model guidance. However, the BAMs won't be the models to use for such a system. Probably not GFDL or HWRF either. The global dynamic models would handle it better most likely (GFS, Euro, and Canadian for track). Upper-level flow looks fairly well set in its path, so a track across south Florida (for the storms) looks likely.

[boca]

57,do you see this being tagged as invest later today?

I plotted surface obs in the area and see no sign of a surface circulation. Pressures in the region are not too low - about 1012 mb - and they don't appear to be falling yet. The farther it moves NE, the greater the shear. I identified it on our discussion this morning but said the main threat was some heavy rain across the FL peninsula tomorrow night and Wednesday. It's only chance of development would be where it is now, and wind shear is in the 20kt range there. Probably 10% chance of development or less. If that blob of storms persists, then NHC may give it a slight chance of development and declare an invest just to check model guidance. However, the BAMs won't be the models to use for such a system. Probably not GFDL or HWRF either. The global dynamic models would handle it better most likely (GFS, Euro, and Canadian for track). Upper-level flow looks fairly well set in its path, so a track across south Florida (for the storms) looks likely.

Wxman57 a couple of days ago you said this would move across eastern Cuba.Did the steering flow change since then?

[brunota2003]

The nearest buoy (from NDBC) is Station 42056, and it is NE of the convection. Right now, the winds are from the East at 13.6 knots and the pressure is rising. This will be the buoy to watch, as it is the only one in the general area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Blown Away]

This area sure does have the satellite appearance of a developing system.

[Blown Away]

Recently a "low" tag has been placed on this area!!

[Aquawind]

This area sure does have the satellite appearance of a developing system.

Yep..With some persistance and the fact it is not trying to go into the shear and more with it eventualy..it looks like the wet GFS for SoFla does sound reasonable.. The shear in the GOM does look to be an issue alright. If this pops I would be surprised but, if we are to have a hyper-active season funny things like this happen.

[thetruesms]

Every time I read through this thread to catch up on it, and start thinking of what I want to post, wxman always comes along and posts more or less exactly what I want to discuss

Our blob is in a spot where it looks to have a (very small) window before it'll get torn apart heading towards that jet streak. I'll be watching it closely, but more just for rain chances for FL than any serious tropical development.

[curtadams]

It certainly looks good, but no model is doing anything with it in the gulf/Caribbean, even CMC. I can only recall one time where an invest was put up without model support. I'm sure there are others, but it's pretty rare.

[ronjon]

Yes Curt the model support has been rather weak but only in the sense of how strong the disturbance becomes. Over the last few days, CMC and GFS have been forecasting a weak low developing out of Agatha's remnants with the local FL NWS offices including it in their long range discussions yesterday (see my posts from yesterday). The last dynamic model runs of the GFDL and HWRF for Agatha actually latched onto the same trend. If a 1010 mb low has been identified on the trough, then I think the GFS may be accurately portraying whats going on. I agree with the forum METs though, and I think why the models keep it weak, that shear will utimately inhibit formation of a stronger system.

[boca]

I think the rainbow sat view looks cool.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html