Which ones will be the big ones for 2010?

[brunota2003]

Fiona, Hermine, Igor, and Lisa. FL/TX/NC/LA as the main U.S. based threat areas this hurricane season (most likely in that order).

If you're state order goes along with your name order, then I have a request that you change Igor's location.

I know I'm in SC and not NC, but I'm close to the border, and while I might welcome some rain from a distant brush from someone offshore, I don't want anything named Igor anywhere close to me!

No, the state order is more dealing with who I believe has the greatest chances of landfall. Florida, Texas, and NC will most likely record at least one a piece, with LA being a roughly 50/50 shot (not backed by any really sound science, since I'm not a trained scientist).

Though you never know, one could hit Florida, then SC/NC (a la Charley in 2004), so maybe you'll get Princess Fiona instead!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Earl and Karl

And wowza - Hurricaneman with the doomsday cane into metro sofla. I shudder to think of the damage numbers.

[Old-TimeCane]

so maybe you'll get Princess Fiona instead!

OK, thanks. I think I can handle her.

Most of them around here tend to hit up in the Cape Fear area, but it's close enough to give us a bad day. I go up there just to hang out for a couple hours sometimes.

[neospaceblue]

Total: 15/11/7
Tropical Storms: 15
Category 1: 11
Category 2: 9
Category 3: 7
Category 4: 5
Category 5: 2

Tropical Storm Alex (June 10 - June 14)
Forms off the Florida coast, moves out to sea.
(Peak intensity: 60kts / 994mb)

Hurricane Bonnie (July 2 - July 9)
Early July fish-spinner.
(Peak intensity: 85kts / 974mb)

Hurricane Colin (July 14 - July 20)
Forms in mid-July north of Haiti, briefly reaches hurricane strength near the Bahamas, weakens to a tropical storm before striking Florida, dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Peak intensity: 65kts / 989mb)
(Landfall intensity: 55kts / 992mb)

Hurricane Danielle (August 2 - August 15)
Long-lasting Cape Verde hurricane. Remains far from land.
(Peak intensity: 115kts / 935mb)

Hurricane Earl (August 8 - August 12)
Formed off the Delmarva Peninsula, rapidly intensifies to a hurricane before heading into the North Atlantic.
(Peak intensity: 65kts / 997mb)

Tropical Storm Fiona (August 14 - August 17)
Short-lived tropical storm in the Caribbean.
(Peak intensity: 35kts / 1004mb)

Hurricane Gaston (August 20 - August 27)
Powerful Category 5 hurricane. Formed north of the Leeward Islands, reaches Category 3 intensity near the Turks and Caicos and Category 5 intensity in the Bahamas. Undergoes a miraculous rapid weakening before making landfall in Florida as a Category 3.
(Peak intensity: 140kts / 915mb)
(Landfall in Florida: 105kts / 942mb)

Hurricane Hermine (August 26 - September 4)
Category 3 fish-spinner
(Peak intensity: 110kts / 954mb)

Hurricane Igor (August 30 - September 10)
Long-lived major hurricane. Forms in the Cape Verde area, moves through Caribbean as a Category 4, makes landfall in the Honduras, before moving into the Gulf and making landfall in Mississippi as a Category 3.
(Peak intensity: 125kts / 938mb)
(Central America landfall: 115kts / 945mb)
(Mississippi landfall: 110kts / 949mb)

Hurricane Julia (September 7 - September 16)
Fish-spinner. Briefly threatens the mid-Atlantic before recurving.
(Peak intensity: 95kts / 965mb)

Hurricane Karl (September 15 - September 28)
Forms in Gulf of Panama and rapidly intensifies to a Category 5. Maintains this intensity until landfall very near where Igor struck two weeks prior. Moves into Gulf and briefly reaches Category 5 a second time before striking just north of Tampa as a Category 3 and makes another landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina before heading into the open Atlantic.
(Peak intensity: 160kts / 885mb)
(Central America landfall: 160kts / 885mb)
(Florida landfall: 110kts / 931mb)
(Outer Banks landfall: 90kts / 959mb)

Tropical Storm Lisa (October 5 - October 9)
Short-lived tropical storm that makes landfall in Mexico.
(Peak intensity: 40kts / 999mb)
(Mexico landfall: 40kts / 999mb)

Hurricane Matthew (October 19 - October 25; October 29 - October 31)
Unusual late year Cape Verde storm. Reaches Category 3 intensity before being ripped apart by shear. Regenerates in the western Caribbean and dissipates again in the Gulf of Mexico.
(First peak: 110kts / 945mb)
(Second peak: 35kts / 1006mb)

Hurricane Nicole (November 5 - November 12)
Powerful November hurricane. Forms in similar area as Karl and moves northeast striking Cuba as a strong Category 4 and the Bahamas as a Category 2.
(Peak intensity: 130kts / 925mb)
(Cuba landfall: 125kts / 928mb)
(Bahamas: 95kts / 964mb)

Tropical Storm Otto (November 18 - November 20)
Short-lived tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic.
(Peak intensity: 35kts / 998mb)

[KWT]

These predictions are very interesting, I'll give it a stab and put up my thoughts with a map of the season as well...

IMO we have 16/9/4..but importantly the US gets a big hit from all 4 of those majors, though no mega landfalls (cat-4/5s)...at least not for the US in my ideas...but it'd still be a very destructive season with an even spread, and a fairly luckluster CV season bar one of the biggies...

[CrazyC83]

Earl and Karl

And wowza - Hurricaneman with the doomsday cane into metro sofla. I shudder to think of the damage numbers.

It seems everyone has Igor as a doomsday storm in one way or another - in my prediction, it is doomsday for Hispaniola (especially Haiti)...I sure hope to God that doesn't happen though, since the death toll would surely be well into the thousands.

Until late October, my prediction keeps the US coast clean with only a couple minor tropical storms...but Nicole changes that.

[KWT]

Crazy, my Igor only makes it to cat-1 in the Leeward islands before outflow shear from Hermine smashes the system.

My season has a very busy few months for much of the US coast, with a lot of action from AL through to NC. First few months of the season isn't too bad, but from August onwards, in my prediction it'd certainly be vying 04 and 08 for 2nd worse US LF year.

FWIW I have a big hit for DR from Karl which would not be pleasent thats for sure, which moves on WNW to rake the Keys before hitting central Texas coast at 120mph.

[Macrocane]

These are some statistics of this poll:

Alex 0 votes
Bonnie 1
Colin 4
Danielle 4
Earl 6
Fiona 7
Gaston 8
Hermine 2
Igor 11
Julia 4
Karl 6
Lisa 2
Matthew 1
Nicole 4
Otto 1
Paula 1
Richard 1
Shary 1
Tomas 0
Virgine 0
Walter 0

If our prediction verifies the top 5 most destructive storms of this season will be:
1. Igor
2. Gaston
3. Fiona
4. Earl
5. Karl

For the people that made a complete description of the season I've only took into account the names that they described as destructive storms. I will post un update when we have more votes.

[KWT]

Here is my prediction for the 2010 season, I've done a map of the tracks as well for you all to see:


http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/6846/emerchart2.jpg


Tropical Storm Alex (June 24 - June 28)
Peak intensity: 55kts / 995mbs

Tropical Storm Bonnie (July 17th - July 20th)
Peak intensity: 60kts / 994mbs
1st landfall: 60kts / 994mbs

Tropical Storm Colin (July 26th - July 29th)
Peak intensity: 45kts / 1001mbs
1st Landfall: 40kts / 1002mbs

Hurricane Danielle (August 3rd - August 10th)
Peak intensity: 90kts / 972mbs

Hurricane Earl (August 9th - August 15th)
Peak intensity: 70kts / 984mbs

Hurricane Fiona (August 21st - August 30th)
Peak intensity: 110kts / 945mbs
1st direct hit: 100kts / 952mbs
1st landfall: 110kts / 947mbs
2nd landfall: 105kts / 957mbs

Tropical storm Gaston (August 25th - September 1st)
Peak intensity: 60kts / 990mbs
1st direct hit: 35kts / 1008mbs

Hurricane Hermine (August 27th - September 15th)
Peak intensity: 125kts / 933mbs
1st Direct hit: 115kts / 940mbs
1st landfall: 95kts / 956mbs
2nd landfall: 60kts / 985mbs

Hurricane Igor (September 1st - September 5th
Peak intensity: 75kts / 980mbs
1st direct hit: 75kts / 980mbs

Tropical Storm Julia (September 14th - September 16th
Peak intensity: 45kts / 1000mbs
1st landfall: 45kts / 1000mbs

Hurricane Karl (September 14th - September 30th)
Peak intensity: 130kts / 929mbs
1st direct hit: 100kts / 976mbs
1st Landfall: 130kts / 930mbs
2nd direct hit: 100kts / 955mbs
2nd landfall: 105kts / 946mbs

Tropical Storm Lisa (September 21th - September 28th)
Peak intensity: 45kts / 1002mbs

Hurricane Matthew (September 29th - October 13th)
Peak intensity: 145kts / 911mbs
1st direct hit: 45kts / 995mbs
1st landfall: 135kts / 920mbs
2nd landfall: 115kts / 943mbs
3rd landfall: 65kts / 983mbs

Tropical Storm Nicole (October 20th - October 22nd)
Peak intensity: 60kts / 989mbs
1st Landfall: 60kts / 989mbs

Hurricane Otto (October 25th - November 2nd)
Peak intensity: 85kts / 973mbs
1st Landfall: 80kts / 975mbs
2nd Landfall: 65kts / 975mbs
1st Direct hit: 40kts / 990mbs

Tropical Storm Paula (November 7th - November 10th)
Peak intensity: 45kts / 994mbs

[HouTXmetro]

KWT that Carla like track would devastate most of the Texas coast.