New disturbance emerging from Africa

[lester]

Whoa... hello.

Activity? In my Atlantic? It's more likely than you think.

<_< >_>

[wx247]

If this holds together, I wonder how long until we get an Invest?

[cycloneye]

Impressive wave so far.Someone said the word invest? If this keeps up for 12 more hours,99L will be up.

[Blown Away]

Wow that is impressive! What latitude is the low? Nice way to kick off the 2009 season w/ a Cape Verde storm!!! I'm feeling this will be Ana in a few days!!

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Wow that is impressive! What latitude is the low?

13-14ºN. I know it's early but climatology tells you that if a TC develops in the EATL at that latitude it's most likely a fish.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Wow that is impressive! What latitude is the low?

13-14ºN. I know it's early but climatology tells you that if a TC develops in the EATL at that latitude it's most likely a fish.

Your right, development in E Atlantic usually means fish. Unrelated to this disturbance, today was the first day this summer that I've noticed a nice E wind, maybe the Bermuda High is going to start being a bully in the Atlantic!

[Stormcenter]

F I S H

[LaBreeze]

Let's not rush things. We've got to see if this system survives for quite a few more hours (maybe days?). I'll admit, it does look like the best disturbance to come out of Africa this year, but we could see a "Code Blue" on this thing or a "FISH." It may be something to watch in the near future I suppose.

[Hyperstorm]

I will bet anything this system will become an invest VERY shortly.

A powerful tropical low has emerged Africa with impressive bursts of convection occurring over water. The system could be called a tropical depression or storm if it were in the Western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. However, the NHC will be conservative, as they usually are, with a system that is far from land. That being said, they won't be able to deny for long that this system is showing signs of significant organization. Don't be at all surprised if we're talking about a tropical depression or storm at this time tomorrow night. Wow! This goes to show you that the tropics can change in a moment's time!

Watch for continued building convection...something we have not seen in a system coming off Africa this year...

[LaBreeze]

Yes, the tropics can and do change at the drop of a hat. But does this system have the depth that it needs?

[Sanibel]

The last wave looked good after leaving Africa but got eaten alive by dry conditions.

[LaBreeze]

Exactly. The "Dry Air Monster" lurks off of the African coast in the Atlantic this year. He's hungry or so it seems.

[Hyperstorm]

The system definitely has the depth. It's the conditions that will determine its fate. At the current time it is fighting anything that can weaken it. The very strong building convection over the low to mid level circulation (and OVER water) is the most important factor that is determining success.

All we need is a few more hours of persistence and we'll see a code yellow or orange. Bet on it...

[hurricanetrack]

Those dry conditions are gone- at least no where near this. 99L huh? Wow, we are up to 99....did not realize that. Shows how quiet it really has been.

The 00z GFS has two of them out there in a week. One at a fairly low latitude as well. So, if these two develop, what the GFS is showing as of the latest run, then what does that mean for the forecasts of the MDR being out of comission this season? I guess let's first see if two MDR storms really manifest themselves, if not, then oh well. But wow, what if we do get Ana and Bill within the next week and both in the MDR. I guess only TSR saw that coming? We shall see.

[Hyperstorm]

No tropical wave so far this year has yet to do what this system is doing...and that is developing very intense and expanding convection right off the coast. Most definitely, it has that important feature which is a strong circulation.

Watch the 2 am or 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook for potential development...

[Hyperstorm]

Those dry conditions are gone- at least no where near this. 99L huh? Wow, we are up to 99....did not realize that. Shows how quiet it really has been.

The 00z GFS has two of them out there in a week. One at a fairly low latitude as well. So, if these two develop, what the GFS is showing as of the latest run, then what does that mean for the forecasts of the MDR being out of comission this season? I guess let's first see if two MDR storms really manifest themselves, if not, then oh well. But wow, what if we do get Ana and Bill within the next week and both in the MDR. I guess only TSR saw that coming? We shall see.

Exactly. It is rare to see a Cape Verde system trying to develop in the far east this early in the year...More so in what is called an El Nino year. I think this season will see several systems develop in the MDR if the current hostility in the very western Atlantic continues as this is the area (believe it or not) that has the best conditions for development.

[Night Tide]

Looks pretty impressive at the moment, but I'll wait until the professional mets weigh in, before I run to wal mart, and start buying batteries, and canned food.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LATEST
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE WELL DEFINED LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING E OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

[Stormcenter]

It can become Cat. 5 for all I care as long as it ends up a fish and based on what I'm seeing if this
"were" to develop more the likely that's what it would end up being. JMHO

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN