Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Frank2]

It's just the quiet June and July periods - lettuce see what happens in about a month or so...

Still, it is rare to not have anything at all form (not even a TD) during the period between early May and present (since some seasons do begin in early May)...

I'm not one of those "season over" people (a/k/a to some as "season cancel"), unless this were already mid-September, but it's wrong to compare this to '92, since each season is different...

At least Florida is having a pretty normal rainy season, which is good - that IS needed...

Frank

[Macrocane]

It's just the quiet June and July periods - lettuce see what happens in about a month or so...

Still, it is rare to not have anything at all form (not even a TD) during the period between early May and present (since some seasons do begin in early May)...

I'm not one of those "season over" people (a/k/a to some as "season cancel"), unless this were already mid-September, but it's wrong to compare this to '92, since each season is different...

At least Florida is having a pretty normal rainy season, which is good - that IS needed...

Frank

Yey we had TD-One in late May.

[KWT]

I think it is fair to say its a slow start to the season, in no way can we say season cancel, that would be insane but conditions look condusive for a slower season, even though the SST's are warming quite well and I suspect by August we will be above average as per normal, June came in at -0.15C, a rise of nearly 0.3C in a month!

[Pearl River]

I think people have been spoiled by early storms in the last several seasons. Many seasons have had storms not form until late July, early August like 92, 88,78, 69 and those are just a few examples. '97 had storms in June, July, skipped August and had only one storm in Sept. Each season is different.

[Macrocane]

I think people have been spoiled by early storms in the last several seasons. Many seasons have had storms not form until late July, early August like 92, 88,78, 69 and those are just a few examples. '97 had storms in June, July, skipped August and had only one storm in Sept. Each season is different.

Yes you're right. I prefer to have no storms in June and July than no storms in August.

[MGC]

Tropics were flat lined in 1992. Then, a monster named Andrew kicked some butt. I'd rather a season of weaker systems thank you....MGC

[HURRICANELONNY]

I SECOND THAT.........

[KWT]

Also 1961 is another great season to look at. First storm on the 20th of July,then nothing at all till very early September...that season we had Carla smash Texas and also Hattie which hammered Belize, in the end we had 7 majors, 6 of them occur after August...

[jinftl]

Given that no hurricanes and only 4 tropical storms have ever made landfall in south florida during the month of July, breathing a sigh of relief at a quiet July in the tropics would be just a bit premature!

[Sanibel]

If I were to "eye" the Atlantic right now I would say there would be no formation for at least ten days.


The reason I mentioned '92 is because every year the slow year that births a monster land-faller is mentioned on the board. All I was saying is the ducks appear to be lining up for that kind of year whether it happens or not.

[HURAKAN]

Nice tropical wave coming out of Africa.

[Sanibel]

That would be something if that CONUS Low about to exit the SE coast turned into a system.

[Category 5]

In the meantime we have Carlos in the EPAC, and 2 invests and a TD in the WPAC.

[Ptarmigan]

I think people have been spoiled by early storms in the last several seasons. Many seasons have had storms not form until late July, early August like 92, 88,78, 69 and those are just a few examples. '97 had storms in June, July, skipped August and had only one storm in Sept. Each season is different.

1978 had a sub-tropical storm that formed in January.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Ptarmigan]

Also 1961 is another great season to look at. First storm on the 20th of July,then nothing at all till very early September...that season we had Carla smash Texas and also Hattie which hammered Belize, in the end we had 7 majors, 6 of them occur after August...

1961 was very active. 11/8/7 with an ACE of 205. Here is a list of years with ACE above 100 from 1950 to 2009 and first storm formed in what month.

2005 248 28 15 7 June
1950 243 13 11 8 August
1995 228 19 11 5 June
2004 225 14 9 6 July
1961 205 11 8 7 July
1955 199 12 9 6 July
1998 182 14 10 3 July
1999 177 12 8 5 June
2003 175 16 7 3 April
1964 170 12 6 6 June
1996 166 13 9 6 June
1969 158 17 12 5 July
1980 147 11 9 2 August
1966 145 11 7 3 June
2008 145 16 8 5 May
1951 137 10 8 5 May
1989 135 11 7 2 June
1967 122 8 6 1 August
1958 121 10 7 5 June
1963 118 9 7 2 July
2000 116 14 8 3 August
1954 113 11 8 2 June
2001 106 15 9 4 June
1953 104 14 6 4 May
1988 103 12 5 3 August

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Notice that many active seasons are late starters, so I would not be willing to write this season off yet. Also, an active season is the number of major hurricanes that form, not just number of storms that form. 2007 had 15 storms that formed, but had an ACE of 72. Also, seasons with many Cape Verde hurricanes have higher ACE, like in 1980 and 2004.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe i should just re-name the the thread to "Season canceled talk" That way all this talk about the season being dead will make sense... I really did just make this thread for that day where the ITCZ was very east to west with almost no buckles in it, which at that point it looked like a "flat lined" heart monitor and made a joke how we need a defibrillator to get it going again. never meant at all the whole season was over. but hey its all good

by the way i just want some surf so i couple good storms out to sea would be nice and well if i get to chase one or two that would be great. either way, there is always next year. hehe

[FireBird]

Hey Aric Dunn, I had a really good laugh at your pic with the paddles...... Hilarious!
Gotta tell ya though - that ITCZ came back kickin'. We had a good wallop of thunderstorms yesterday along west coast, Trinidad. My street flooded as usual, and the clean-up is always smelly.
In my part of the sea, where TC's rarely pass, the ITCZ in combine with waves always does a number on us. So my tracking usually focuses on the thunderstorm activity that is likely to result in flooding so I could inform my family and friends early.
That said, I am curious about the lack of activity because I wonder where and when the repercussions will come. After all, we're running a closed circuit so somebody's gotta get it at some point ...........

[Sanibel]

Mild pulse detected in that wave around 33W. Models are picking it up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My gut, this is going to be a very low number season, most of it quite boring.


Just like 1992.

[jinftl]

Agree....first name storm in '92 wasn't until mid-August....and the season didn't make up with a high number of storms....total named storms = 7, hurricanes = 4, major hurricanes = 1

how bad could those numbers be?

My gut, this is going to be a very low number season, most of it quite boring.


Just like 1992.