Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[JonathanBelles]

I dont think there is a winding down trend in our future. I believe that in a week or two, we will see it ramp up once again in the carib, CV's, and near dying cold fronts.

[Isadora]

to Dr. gray: some active september huh? looks like theres nothing out there... 17 named storms? phoeey... i believe that josephine would be the last... what a very overhyped season...

[KWT]

Very careful going over the top with a slight quiet spell, we still have a cool neutral Pacific which is acting more like a La nina so I fully exppect the season will linger on longer then normal, probably could get 7 storms from here though that is indeed possibly on thee high side of what to expect.

Isadora...overhyped?
We've had sooo many landfalling systems, 6 US landfalling storms in a row (thats got to be close to a record!) 2 top end cat-4's with 3 category-2s hitting the US.
Sure its no 04/05 but its still been a pretty active and eventful season even if it ended right now....which I honestly highly doubt.

[Category 5]

Very careful going over the top with a slight quiet spell, we still have a cool neutral Pacific which is acting more like a La nina so I fully exppect the season will linger on longer then normal, probably could get 7 storms from here though that is indeed possibly on thee high side of what to expect.

Isadora...overhyped?
We've had sooo many landfalling systems, 6 US landfalling storms in a row (thats got to be close to a record!) 2 top end cat-4's with 3 category-2s hitting the US.
Sure its no 04/05 but its still been a pretty active and eventful season even if it ended right now....which I honestly highly doubt.

I agree, even if a super El Nino appeared out of thin air and shut it down, this will still be looked as a historic year. Alot of people have died and incredible amounts of damage have been done, and IMO will have 4-6 storms to go.

[Bocadude85]

Dont forget that there is another peak in mid october

[Sanibel]

Don't look now but look at the Caribbean!

[DanKellFla]

It would be so so nice, but I'm still going to keep some extra gas in the garage.

[Ptarmigan]

I want the 2008 Hurricane Season to end NOW. I've had it after Ike. I know it is not over yet. Every season, even the most active will have lulls.

[Rod Hagen]

see viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102568 for the results last time someone made a prediction like this, Blown_away!

Cheers

Rod

[Ptarmigan]

Dont forget that there is another peak in mid october

Hurricane Wilma formed in mid October of 2005. That month had seven storms forming the most in 2005.

[Blown Away]

see viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102568 for the results last time someone made a prediction like this, Blown_away!
Cheers

Rod

Ed made his Texas Season Over prediction in mid August which I thought was premature, making a prediction the season is winding down during mid/late September is little different IMO. BTW, still think we will get 7/4/2 before November 30?

[Jim Hughes]

I want the 2008 Hurricane Season to end NOW. I've had it after Ike. I know it is not over yet. Every season, even the most active will have lulls.

Not exactly to this extent though. I posted this data /comments elsewhere yesterday.


Many people have probably noticed how somewhat quirky 2008 has been as you have researched past years in hopes of finding some similar analog patterns. And it looks like this years ATL tropical season is living up to this years reputation. At least when you consider the recent formation lull during the most active part of the season. And we already know that it's going to be an above average season.

So I quickly went back and looked over some past years this morning just to see how rare it is to see a formation lull like this between 9/3-9/22 during active years. The answer ? It's never happened before if you go back to 1900. At least not during the years of when the seasonal ACE total was 100 or higher.

I went ahead and listed all the seasonal numbers from 1988 onwards below. But then I only listed the years from 1900 that had a season total ACE of at least 100. The numbers represent all the systems that formed between 9/3-22 ( TD/Hurricane/ Majors.)

You also must remember that the numbers represent the final peak of the storm so a system could have formed on 9/22 and then gone on to be a major afterwards. So it would show up as a major below but part of this would have occurred outside the 9/22 window.

I believe the thing that stands out the most is the average since 1998. The current number is not that different than 1995 & 1996 but that was the early part of the transition period as we entered into a positive AMO /heightened level.

But if you only consider 9/3-22 average since 1998 it is 4.5/2.4/1.4. So this current formation behavior is considerably different then what we have been witnessing during the prior decade.


2007: 5/1/1
2006: 3/2/2
2005: 4/4/1
2004: 4/3/2
2003: 3/1/1
2002: 8/4/2
2001: 4/3/1
2000: 5/3/1
1999: 4/2/2
1998: 5/3/1
1997: 1/1/1
1996: 1/1/1
1995 2/1/1
1994: 2/0/0
1993: 3/3/0
1992: 3/2/0
1991: 3/1/1
1990: 2/2/0
1989: 2/1/1
1988: 5/3/2


1980: 4/2/1
1969: 4/4/2
1967: 4/3/1
1964: 3/2/2
1963: 3/2/0
1961: 4/3/3
1958: 3/2/1
1955: 4/4/3
1954: 1/1/0
1953: 3/2/2
1951: 1/0/0
1950: 1/1/1
1948: 2/2/2
1947: 3/1/1
1936: 4/2/1
1933: 3/3/1
1932: 2/0/0
1926: 4/3/2
1916: 3/2/1
1915 2/1/1
1906: 3/2/1
1903: 3/2/0

[Steve]

>>i believe that josephine would be the last

I believe you would be incorrect.

[Ed Mahmoud]

see viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102568 for the results last time someone made a prediction like this, Blown_away!
Cheers

Rod

Ed made his Texas Season Over prediction in mid August which I thought was premature, making a prediction the season is winding down during mid/late September is little different IMO. BTW, still think we will get 7/4/2 before November 30?

I didn't make that prediction in late August because the Texas season is normally over in August. Plenty of September storms in Texas. I made that prediction because a persistent October like pattern (not October temps, an August sun angle doesn't let that happen) with entrenched Westerlies had set up. Then we had a single break in the persistent Westerlies at an inopportune time. A fluke. The Giants beating the Pats. Buster Douglas KOing Mike Tyson. Appy State beating the Wolverines in the Big House.

Lots of storms in October from Louisiana Eastward, in the history books. 1 hurricane in six decades in Texas in October.

[DanKellFla]

see viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102568 for the results last time someone made a prediction like this, Blown_away!
Cheers

Rod

Ed made his Texas Season Over prediction in mid August which I thought was premature, making a prediction the season is winding down during mid/late September is little different IMO. BTW, still think we will get 7/4/2 before November 30?

I didn't make that prediction in late August because the Texas season is normally over in August. Plenty of September storms in Texas. I made that prediction because a persistent October like pattern (not October temps, an August sun angle doesn't let that happen) with entrenched Westerlies had set up. Then we had a single break in the persistent Westerlies at an inopportune time. A fluke. The Giants beating the Pats. Buster Douglas KOing Mike Tyson. Appy State beating the Wolverines in the Big House.

Lots of storms in October from Louisiana Eastward, in the history books. 1 hurricane in six decades in Texas in October.

He's right. This year is full of flukes. Just look at the Cubs.

[ConvergenceZone]

This year is pretty much over. May be another named storm or 2, but based upon what I'm seeing out in the Atlantic and elsewhere, looks like this season has decided to call it quits early.....Storms will be moving across the USA soon as Fall sets in... Looks like this will end up being a short, but very intense season......no complaints here about an early ending.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This year is pretty much over. May be another named storm or 2, but based upon what I'm seeing out in the Atlantic and elsewhere, looks like this season has decided to call it quits early.....Storms will be moving across the USA soon as Fall sets in... Looks like this will end up being a short, but very intense season......no complaints here about an early ending.

93L is looking a little sickly, but I'm smelling STS Kyle in less than 12 hours from 94L, and October hasn't even begun.

[Category 5]

This year is pretty much over. May be another named storm or 2, but based upon what I'm seeing out in the Atlantic and elsewhere, looks like this season has decided to call it quits early.....Storms will be moving across the USA soon as Fall sets in... Looks like this will end up being a short, but very intense season......no complaints here about an early ending.

This post has crow written all over it.

[ConvergenceZone]

This year is pretty much over. May be another named storm or 2, but based upon what I'm seeing out in the Atlantic and elsewhere, looks like this season has decided to call it quits early.....Storms will be moving across the USA soon as Fall sets in... Looks like this will end up being a short, but very intense season......no complaints here about an early ending.

This post has crow written all over it.

that's what I was told last year and I ended up being right
also, remember I said 1 or 2 named storms are possible, which will probably
occur in October before everything shuts down completely.

I don't know why some people find it so hard to believe that the season can end early. It's done that before in the past
and it can easily do that again

[Category 5]

This year is pretty much over. May be another named storm or 2, but based upon what I'm seeing out in the Atlantic and elsewhere, looks like this season has decided to call it quits early.....Storms will be moving across the USA soon as Fall sets in... Looks like this will end up being a short, but very intense season......no complaints here about an early ending.

This post has crow written all over it.

that's what I was told last year and I ended up being right
also, remember I said 1 or 2 named storms are possible, which will probably
occur in October before everything shuts down completely.

I don't know why some people find it so hard to believe that the season can end early. It's done that before in the past
and it can easily do that again

Yes but you're saying this in late September. Don't be like Ed, don't jump the gun.