Bermuda preparations,observations and web cams thread

[cycloneye]

Official track shifts west more closer to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

The latest advisory has the eye of Bertha psasing 120 nm ESE of Bermuda,again more closer.The 11 AM had it passing 146 nm.

HURRICANE BERTHA is a potential threat to Bermuda.

Current Position: 27.2N 60.8W approx. 372 nm SE of Bermuda

Recent Movement: NW or 315 degrees at 9 kt

Central Pressure: 980 mb / 28.93 in

Max Sustained Winds: 75kt gusts 90kt

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:

Date: 6 pm Sun, Jul 13, 2008. Distance: 120 nm to the ESE

http://www.weather.bm/tropical.asp


IMO,Bermuda will have a Hurricane watch tommorow morning.

[cycloneye]

A report from Bermuda:

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

A report from Bermuda:

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

Thanks Cycloneye. This part near the end is very interesting:
"I do believe the forming of Tropical Systems is influenced by the moon phase with full moon on July 18th"
Can any pro-mets confirm that as true?

[HURAKAN]

As far as I know, there is no correlation between TC formation and a Full Moon.

[senorpepr]

Bermuda Surface Plots

Updates every hour at :30

[hiflyer]

Whoa momma! So the 120600 psn is the last point heading towards BDA and then Bertha starts doing a s turn? Should make it interesting for the 66 thousand folks who share that 20 square miles of real estate perched on top of a seamount on an old coral reef 640 miles east of the next nearest land mass surrounded by 10 thousand foot deep oceans just off their beaches and a highest elevation of about 150 feet.

Even worse...they drive on the left!!!

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 112040
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

...LARGE EYE OF BERTHA LEISURELY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
EAST OF BERMUDA BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...29.1 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Another report from Bermuda posted at stormcarib.com

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

[senorpepr]

Bermuda Surface Plots

Updates every hour at :30

Charts will NOT be updated until further notice due to power outage.

[Chacor]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

[senorpepr]

Surface chart plots have resumed. (Thankfully power is back on after 8 1/2 hours)

[hiflyer]

Bermuda Max Z radar is up and hot...holds the eye nicely
http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp
Extended Products
Use guest for login and password
BDA radar up top
Max Z on top bar SRI is holding the edges as well

Controllable webcam with stream feed at
http://209.240.42.187:1024/home/homeJ.html
generally been left facing SE towards Bertha.

[cycloneye]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

...BERTHA REMAINS ADRIFT...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[senorpepr]

Surface chart plots have resumed. (Thankfully power is back on after 8 1/2 hours)

Argh... NOW the surface chart plots have resumed. (Power went out again, after only a few minutes. Hopefully we're back for good after 14 1/2 hours)

[msbee]

another Bermuda update from stormcarib.
all quiet so far.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

[Stephanie]

Bertha is a stubborn ol' gal!

I just remember what Fabian did to her in 2003. I had stayed at the Sonesta Resort on the southeastern side of Bermuda in 1999. I remember seeing on the website that they had to shut down for repairs. I just looked on a Bermuda website and on Sonesta's website as well and it looks like it's not there anymore??? Perhaps it was bought out by someone else. It was beautiful though.

[cycloneye]

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY SLOW
MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD
BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.

[HURAKAN]

Now closer:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA is a threat to Bermuda.

Current Position: 30.2N 63.0W approx. 158 nm SE of Bermuda

Recent Movement: NW or 320 degrees at 2 kt

Central Pressure: 988 mb / 29.17 in

Max Sustained Winds: 55kt gusts 65kt

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:

Date: 4 pm Mon, Jul 14, 2008. Distance: 58 nm to the E

http://www.weather.bm/