TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[Bgator]

Ptracker, i see what you see to...:/

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow if it took that track it would be a 40 mph tropical storm by the time it made it out.

[KWT]

Would that track not put Tampa into the firing line?
How much Cuba damages Ernesto could well depend on how strong it can gets over the next 24-36hrs and prehaps even more importantly how fast it re-curves.

[jhamps10]

I don't see the percise line from NHC, but yeah it looks like Tampa needs to get ready for a major hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe I was a little quick on saying this would be a 40 mph tropical storm. It has to do at how fast this thing goe's in where it crosses. If it cross over at central cuba where the mountains are in remains slow then it will be a 40 to 50 mph tropical storm. If it bombs into 100 mph hurricane in waits to cross at where charley did then different story.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if anything survives coming off of Cuba it will rapidly regenerate over our 89 degree waters just offshore of FL. The waters that made Charley strengthen so rapidly despite the forward speed of the storm. E will be over the warm waters twice as long as Charley was and in a great environment for strengthening. I fear this storm now.

[jhamps10]

yeah if this thing crosses cuba where Charley, umm Ivan I think crossed on the western tip, then we will FOR sure have at least a 100 mph cane and most likely a 125-130mph cane, but it all depends on where it crosses cuba.

[Normandy]

Gotta admit looking at the latest movement seems to be more northward...still don't see this being a S FL storm but the peninsula's chances are up.

[jhamps10]

plus I just got a look at the nhc maps, heads stright from just north of tampa, on a bee line for Jacksonville, still as a cane. Maybe we will get to see what charlie would have done had he kept on his course

[Normandy]

Looking at sat (ghcc IR) the center of Ernesto is clearly underneath the LCC and is rotating very strongly, and with new recon findings of increasing windspeed it is likely Ernesto becomes a hurricane before hitting Jamaica/Cuba.

Gotta raise the panhandles chances now, but I still cant see this hitting South Florida below where Charley hit.

[PTrackerLA]

NHC sure thinks just north of Tampa now. I'm shocked they made this big of a change. They are the pros after all so you gotta trust them. What a difference a day makes!

[Normandy]

^Yup this is wierd i would never have expected the storm to do this looking at the synoptics....gotta love hurricane season

[KWT]

The only reason why I have a seed of doubt about the models is that they usually have a habit of causing weaknesses in ridges far to oquickly, how many times in the past have we seen this?
Katrina was a prime example where the storm just kept on getting further and further west depsite what the models expected.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Very few people on the board right now and it is a Sun morning. -likely many Tampa Bay folks won't see this for a while. I am sure there will be a lot of suprise and panic in the area. It takes a minimum of 53 hours to evacuate pinellas county -with the roads in good shape. Right now nearly every bridge to the barrier islands is only 1/2 functional due to construction. This will be a nightmare if the models flop any more and the storm ends up here. We have to have the time to accomplish evacs. Pinellas County has the worst shelter space in the country for its citizenry...space for only 18,000. We have a population of over 680,000 in the county though. greater than 60% over the age of 60. high population in mobile homes and flood zones. very depressed/poor areas are 1/2 in flood zone and 1/2 on high land. pinellas county becomes 2 islands in the event of a major storm. the big plan is to have people go to the Tropicana Field as a last resort....sound familiar?

[Normandy]

WOW.
Run this loop for 30 frames and u can see that Ernesto is borderline exploding....recon just found some high winds.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir

[jhamps10]

Very few people on the board right now and it is a Sun morning. -likely many Tampa Bay folks won't see this for a while. I am sure there will be a lot of suprise and panic in the area. It takes a minimum of 53 hours to evacuate pinellas county -with the roads in good shape. Right now nearly every bridge to the barrier islands is only 1/2 functional due to construction. This will be a nightmare if the models flop any more and the storm ends up here. We have to have the time to accomplish evacs. Pinellas County has the worst shelter space in the country for its citizenry...space for only 18,000. We have a population of over 680,000 in the county though. greater than 60% over the age of 60. high population in mobile homes and flood zones. very depressed/poor areas are 1/2 in flood zone and 1/2 on high land. pinellas county becomes 2 islands in the event of a major storm. the big plan is to have people go to the Tropicana Field as a last resort....sound familiar?

Hopefully They are really paying attention to this in the EOC, the residents, espically if it take 50+ hours to evacuate. Plus hopefully tropicana field has a better roof.

[secretforecaster]

Link doesn't work.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

tropicana field leaks in normal rainfall.

[jhamps10]

tropicana field leaks in normal rainfall.

I wasn't being serious treasure, hince the crying emocion. I've seen it do that one time when the cards played the rays. This is a recipe for a disaster unless he changes course, which is highly likely the way this has gone. One thing I just now thought of, you say it takes 53 hours to evacuate pinellas, that would mean that evacs would have to start TOMORROW!