Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[Normandy]

BIG EYE coming

[Mac]

Linky???

[bostonseminole]

LINK


EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink -senorpepr

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 1 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 20.7N 164.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.1N 160.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT

[bostonseminole]

based on the above forecast, if it keeps same heading it would hit somewhere between Osaka & Tokyo, maybe around Nagoya.. we will see what later models bring

[Ptarmigan]

Brandon007 does have a point. The mediots on CNN and the news programs on TV all hype on Ernesto and now John. They completely ignore Ioke. It's not just Wake Island, either, although the complete submerging of an island is something that is at least somewhat newsworthy. Ioke is headed towards Japan. Every GFS run for the past few days call for a hit on Japan, and more than half smash right smack into Tokyo. How many people does Tokyo have? Is it the biggest city in the world? 25,000,000 people? Ioke may very well affect more people than Ernesto, John, Katrina, Rita, Isabel, Wilma, and Juan put together (unless you count the effect on gasoline prices). So I think the media should at least mention Ioke.

But right now the immediate threats are Ernesto and John, and I would certainly like to find out what is going to happen right near my home and at the place where I went to see a total eclipse of the Sun on 1991 July 11. I am more interested in Ernesto than anything else right now, but I still want to know about Ioke.

If Ioke hits Tokyo, that could be a real problem for them. It could be much worse than Katrina. I wonder how high storm surge could go in that area? Tokyo is considered the most vulnerable city in the world. They also have earthquakes to contend with.

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

ERC done

[bostonseminole]

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.5N 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.4N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.3N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.2N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.9N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.7N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 164.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z,
011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//

[bostonseminole]

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 49//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z TO 060000Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
145 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGE IS
BUILDING WESTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM,
EGRR, COAMPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON COAMPS.
C. STY 01C IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TO
MEDIUM TERM AS THE STORM ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT THE STORM FROM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TAU 72.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 312104Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
AND A 311912Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. STY 01C IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 96 AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 1 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 21.3N 163.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 030600UTC 24.9N 152.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 040600UTC 26.7N 148.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT

[P.K.]

100kts, 930hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 21.8N 162.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 23.6N 157.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 031200UTC 25.8N 152.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 041200UTC 27.8N 148.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT =

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

It's looking pretty ragged on its west side. I think it'll be on a weakening trend from here on out.

Even if it's not a cat-4 anymore (we'll find out on the next JTWC advisory), it's been almost 48 hours since I wrote this post below:

Isn't typhoon Ioke about to break that cat4/5 longevity record?

Going by the maps here and here, Ioke has been category 4 for 153 hours (advisories 9 through 11 equals 15 hours because it was downgraded at advisory 11A, and advisories 20 through 42 equals 138 hours). That's 6 days and 9 hours, with another 4 days as a cat 4 if the JTWC forecast holds.

In this topic, they found a typhoon that was analyzed as a cat-4-plus for what looks to be 27 advisories, which is 162 hours. Ioke just might break the record indeed.

It now seems reasonable to think that Ioke has been a cat 4+ for longer than any other cyclone in recorded history.

And uh... get ready Tokyo?

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0106.gif

[Jim Cantore]

Looks like we have an ERC going on?

[mtm4319]

Heat Content
Ioke has tracked from (roughly) 20N 165E to 22N 162E over the past 12 hours. Heat content is fairly low in this area; it will move into a slightly more favorable area later today, but goes back into the lower range for the rest of its track.

SSTs
Sea surface temps are high (28-29 degrees C all the way up to near Tokyo)

Depth of 26°C isotherm
Low to moderate. Ioke might be able to stay within the strip of green between 20-25N and 150-160E for a little while.

[WindRunner]

Possibly . . . but the eye is definately open to the W/S. The hole around the eye might just have been a little dry air entrainment from the NW that got wrapped up, as the NW quad has been having problems for the past couple of days. There is that nice closed band further out, so that probably indicates that our clear area is only a temporary thing and that Ioke will be restrengthening by T+24.



EDIT: WV image from appx. 3 hours after the above pass.

[P.K.]

Ioke spent an impressive 132 hours at 100kts or greater since passing into RSMC Tokyo's AOR.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 22.4N 161.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 24.0N 156.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 031800UTC 26.0N 151.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 041800UTC 28.0N 147.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT =

[CronkPSU]

have we heard from that french meterologist yet who stayed behind?

[WindRunner]

Not that I've seen, and the Wake Island station hasn't reported any since 08/31 15:18Z, as you can see here.

Anyway, the hole from earlier filled in, and NRL still has her as a 115kts/927mb Cat 4 and JTWC keeps her like that another 18 hours or so, so a record definately appears to be in hand for that. The real problem comes later in the forecast where Ioke is at 100kt (1-min) at about a day or so out from Tokyo . . . this'll turn out interesting if the GFS nailed this from 384hrs on in . . .

[Trugunzn]

looks like maybe a bigger eye about to form:

[senorpepr]

Pacific island evacuated ahead of storm
© 2006 The Associated Press

HONOLULU — The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, though French hurricane meteorologist Thomas Cavanaugh decided to stay on the tiny island for the purpose "of research and the common human trait of curiosity." The 72-year-old pro met has been through severe storms before, namely in Guam and Taiwan. His current location is a 24 ft concrete structure built after WW2, where Cavanaugh will conduct his research.

Ioke had winds of 160 mph and gusts up to 185 mph on Monday, Powell said. The storm was 560 miles southeast of Wake Island and on track for a direct hit, according to the forecast.

Wake Island is 2,300 miles west of Honolulu and 1,510 miles east of Guam. The storm is expected to strike at 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, or noon Thursday on the island.

___

Interesting... Unfortunately I must call attention to this until you provide a link. I can find that ever article... HOWEVER... the information that you boldfaced is NOT in the article. Therefore, until you prove otherwise, I must assume you are adding that information.

Furthermore, it is rather unlikely that an AP bulletin would use phrases such as "pro met".

Also, "Access to [Wake Island] is restricted, and all current activities on the island are managed by the United States Air Force, the United States Army, and Chugach McKinley, Inc., a civilian base operations and maintenance services company." It's rather odd how a "French hurricane specialist" (why would the French have a hurricane specialist doing research in the middle of the Pacific?) would make his way onto a restricted military installation when everyone was ordered to evacuate.

Just a reminder...

10. Intentional posting of false information is not permitted at all. We know people do like to joke around but we have to many people visiting this forum other than the regulars to permit this activity. If you are going to joke about something or copy information from another location you must clearly say so in words. We take this as a very serious offense and the penalties will be very serious as well.

Thanks,
senorpepr