This area near the Bahamas is impressive

[tgenius]

The Miami Discussion says that we could have a shot of more widespread rain since were on the eastern side of the ULL.

I tend to find out that when they say we have a shot for rain... my anti-rain buffer kicks in around me in a 5 mile radius.

Miami got a decent amount of rain. Here in Kendall, we got 1.25 inches today,and about 2 inches in the last 2 days.. almost our entire June rainfall! The convection sure has died down now without the sunlight.

[boca]

So this ULL has a shot of turning warm core by tomorrow or is it just speculation. I read in the Miami NWS that it was supposed to fill in.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Possibly and the NHC said that the rain from this system will hit Florida, but the center of the ULL should move into the GOM, which might give this system some more time to develop.

[stormtruth]

Still stuck inland tonight -> http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg
Maybe tomorrow it will emerge in the Gulf.

[tailgater]

I am interested in an area of convection just south of Cuba that is
being fueled in part by this low pressure area (upper level low).
It has persisted for almost 24 hours...is it just storminess convection?
Could it develop seperately once the upper-level low moving
over Florida gets accelerated Northward? I'm just a small bit
concerned because it has been rather persistent:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

This area may deserve watching, it has maintained convection for quite a while, but pressures are high in this area.

[Ivanhater]

I am interested in an area of convection just south of Cuba that is
being fueled in part by this low pressure area (upper level low).
It has persisted for almost 24 hours...is it just storminess convection?
Could it develop seperately once the upper-level low moving
over Florida gets accelerated Northward? I'm just a small bit
concerned because it has been rather persistent:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

This area may deserve watching, it has maintained convection for quite a while, but pressures are high in this area.

This is an area worth watching, if it is still there tomorrow evening it will have my attention.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now the main convection is to the south of Cuba, though I'm not really sure if that is part of the ULL at all.

[clfenwi]

Right now the main convection is to the south of Cuba, though I'm not really sure if that is part of the ULL at all.

The 0205Z TWD describes that convection as part of an interaction between the ULL and the tropical wave that is passing to the south:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
SLOWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

[jabber]

Yeah I read that as well... Been dry all night. I was looking forward to some weather out of this.

The Miami Discussion says that we could have a shot of more widespread rain since were on the eastern side of the ULL.

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks like the ULL is starting to resuface in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[boca]

ULL is just south of Naples nearly stationary.

[Thunder44]

If you click for NWS fronts you see that a 1014mb surface low has been anaylized over Central Florida with a surface trough extending from that low into the SE GOM.

It's also mentioned in the morning discussion from TPC:

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE
UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. AN UPPER LOW IS
MOVING S OVER E TEXAS TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 29N96W WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N W OF 86W.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR TAMPA SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM OVER S
FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA.

The low will probably be picked up by a trough and move NE off the SE coast without developing into a tropical cyclone.

[HomesteadHoney]

Yeah I read that as well... Been dry all night. I was looking forward to some weather out of this.

The Miami Discussion says that we could have a shot of more widespread rain since were on the eastern side of the ULL.

Jabber, you should come south about 100 miles to Homestead. I have drained the pool three times since Monday, each time letting out at least two inches. Although not an official gauge, it is a good indicator of the rain that has been dumping on us. The lightning is abundant as the cells come slowly through with the rain lasting a long time! These are not the quick passing afternoon summer storms. They are just as strong at 4am.

The Weatherbug stations are not recording rainfall down here. I drove out to one close by, in the middle of a deluge, and found it did not record any rain for that day. Can someone reccommend a personal weather station? My birthday comes next month!

[Starburst]

The area near cuba looks to be rather intense looking today.

[brunota2003]

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES
TO EXTENDED ATTM BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW
ALONG THE COAST SUN INTO MON. ALREADY HAVE POPS FOR TUE AND WED
AFTN GIVEN RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH TEMPS RISING
AGAIN ALONG WITH LOW LVL MSTR.

Pretty interesting long term discussion there...that is from Morehead City, NC AFD...I will watch for further interesting updates throughout the coming couple of days...

[hiflyer]

thought last evening the ull might pop out at Naples and it did...owe myself a rum and coke! Looking at the sat pix see that the wave, mostly below Cuba, has caught up with the ULL....I think it is going to be interesting to watch the 'energy dance' between the two for the next few hours....

[TampaFl]

Yeah I read that as well... Been dry all night. I was looking forward to some weather out of this.

The Miami Discussion says that we could have a shot of more widespread rain since were on the eastern side of the ULL.

Jabber, you should come south about 100 miles to Homestead. I have drained the pool three times since Monday, each time letting out at least two inches. Although not an official gauge, it is a good indicator of the rain that has been dumping on us. The lightning is abundant as the cells come slowly through with the rain lasting a long time! These are not the quick passing afternoon summer storms. They are just as strong at 4am.

The Weatherbug stations are not recording rainfall down here. I drove out to one close by, in the middle of a deluge, and found it did not record any rain for that day. Can someone reccommend a personal weather station? My birthday comes next month!

This might help. S2K has a link about/for weather stations. Good luck & early happy birthday


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=32&sid=fa2393f8bb9e0f6cb6bb74b89d8b3df5



Robert

[Thunder44]

840
ABNT20 KNHC 061508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE AREA
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
-
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Convection is increasing with this ULL. Looks like another rainy day for Florida.

[Canelaw99]

Jabber, you should come south about 100 miles to Homestead. I have drained the pool three times since Monday, each time letting out at least two inches. Although not an official gauge, it is a good indicator of the rain that has been dumping on us. The lightning is abundant as the cells come slowly through with the rain lasting a long time! These are not the quick passing afternoon summer storms. They are just as strong at 4am.

My birthday comes next month!

I agree! We've had a ton of rain here the last couple of days. I think this is the first time I haven't had to water my orchids every other day in months, and I love it! I haven't heard how much we've gotten here either, though we were under that urban flood advisory midday yesterday...and, my birthday is next month also, so happy early bday fellow Auguster!!