91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[terstorm1012]

I think the recon really needs to find the evidence too.

[drezee]

Did you ever get a response to your email?

Yes, Response #1


Hi ,

Let me try to give you an explanation. The National Hurricane Center tries its best to classify storms accurately and timely. Because a marginal-looking storm may not be well-defined on either satellite or surface observations, it's possible that a tropical cyclone could go undetected. It's also possible that opinions between forecasters may have differ about possible storm strengths. Unfortunately, meteorology can be a little subjective from time to time, especially if observational data is sparse.

I am not suggesting that in this case the NHC missed a storm, but that the forecaster who made the call may not have been able to give his reasoning clearly in the forums he is provided (weather discussions, weather outlooks, etc.)

I can assure you that tropical disturbances are closely monitored by NHC personnel, and if warranted, reconnaissance plans are sent out to investigate further.

Hopefully I have made some sense here.

Sincerely,

--
Christopher Juckins
Meteorologist / Webmaster
National Hurricane Center | http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Prediction Center | nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov

[drezee]

recon investigated that system as well... and they also were unable to find a closed circulation with it. I remember that one well as I was in the office that Saturday and Sunday. It was very close, but not 100% closed

True, recon flew into it earlier inthe day. Buoy closed it off only hours later while on the coast. and it was closed all the way up the coast...Tidewater and all. They did recieve a TS 2-min wind at one of the Tidewater buoys.

[Thunder44]

I think this is the end of the line for 91L.

No it's not. this thing is going to enhance the rainfall across the mid-Atlantic. Major flooding is expected in the Delaware and Susquehanna basins, with my local river, the Susquehanna expected to crest at 25 feet. It is comparable to the 1996 snowmelt floods and the 2004 Ivan floods. And since I'm in the floodplain, I'm preparing to evacuate tomorrow evening.

I mean for tropical cyclone development.

[drezee]

DUCN7 further up the coast:
2005 06 26 15 00 90 9.3 10.3 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1018.6 22.7 23.5 21.2 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 16 00 112 9.2 10.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1018.6 22.6 23.8 20.9 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 17 00 84 8.4 9.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1018.0 22.1 23.8 20.6 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 18 00 58 10.1 11.6 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1017.2 22.3 23.7 20.8 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 19 00 50 12.4 13.3 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.4 22.4 23.7 20.9 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 20 00 25 10.1 10.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.3 22.6 23.8 21.2 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 21 00 277 3.1 4.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.9 24.1 23.8 22.4 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 22 00 280 6.0 7.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.6 23.4 23.8 21.6 99.0 99.00

[drezee]

As it passed CLKN7: 10 kt N winds

2005 06 26 04 00 76 5.6 6.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1017.2 25.4 999.0 23.1 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 05 00 65 5.9 6.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1017.1 25.1 999.0 23.1 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 06 00 45 6.6 7.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.1 24.3 999.0 22.7 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 07 00 71 6.7 7.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.5 23.9 999.0 22.6 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 08 00 45 8.1 9.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.1 24.1 999.0 22.4 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 09 00 36 7.2 8.6 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.3 23.4 999.0 22.1 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 10 00 8 4.4 5.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.7 23.7 999.0 22.2 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 11 00 276 4.5 4.9 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.2 23.3 999.0 21.8 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 12 00 250 4.0 5.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.7 23.7 999.0 22.3 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 13 00 251 4.5 5.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.1 24.2 999.0 22.5 99.0 99.00
2005 06 26 14 00 223 3.2 4.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1016.8 24.7 999.0 22.7 99.0 99.00

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Damn thats all it need is north wind is it is right there. What can I say. If this thing can get off land back into the Atlatnic it might pull a Gaston.

[Thunder44]

You notice they said it didn't develop a closed circulation BEFORE landfall. That leaves the possibilty that it did manage to close off a circulation after it made landfall. But I don't think TPC wants to classify a tropical cyclone on land.

[drezee]

CLKN is cape lookout.

If you have a NE or N wind there, then the LLC is offshore

[NCHurricane]

Local met said at 6:00 that obs from the where the low came ashore had winds at 30-40mph, gusting to 45. It may have closed off after landfall, but not sure if it made it to TS.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[terstorm1012]

Damn thats all it need is north wind is it is right there. What can I say. If this thing can get off land back into the Atlatnic it might pull a Gaston.

It's not going into the Atlantic again. It's going to flood the mid-Atlantic.

[Jim Cantore]

mistake post

[Jim Cantore]

times up for it to become a TD, however I can clearly see the center on radar.

[Jim Cantore]

It's shape reminds me of Floyd coming up the coast........

[terstorm1012]

It's shape reminds me of Floyd coming up the coast........

the flooding will be considerably worse then Floyd's was in Pennsylvania. This is more an Ivan-like event for us.

[wxman57]

Is a radar signature not good enough for proof of a closed LLC?

No. The reason is that the Earth's surface is curved. As the radar beam eminates from the radar unit, it extends higher and higher above the surface. At a distance of around 150 miles, the radar is looking as high as 20,000 to 30,000 feet above the surface. Even withn a short distance from the radar, the beam is already thousands of feet above the ground. So radar will indicate a circulation center aloft in the mid levels but that doesn't mean there is a surface circulation.

On the surface plots, you can clearly see that there is no LLC near the Outer Banks of NC. Winds are straight from the south through the thunderstorm area. The center of the low is about 150 miles to the west - inland over central NC.

So this is simply an area of thunderstorms that may have produce a few pockets of 30-35 kt surface winds out over the water. But just about every tropical wave that crosses the Atlantic can produce such winds in squalls, so that's not a reason to name a wave a tropical storm (or an upper level low a TS). A TS must have a low-level circulation. Even though you may have seen a few winds out of the north at a couple of stations, I doubt they were indicative of an actual LLC. More likely, they were produced by downbursts associated with nearby thunderstorms and not related to a circulation at the surface.

Here's the latest surface analysis of the area.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/da ... fc_bwi.gif

[Stephanie]

It's shape reminds me of Floyd coming up the coast........

the flooding will be considerably worse then Floyd's was in Pennsylvania. This is more an Ivan-like event for us.

Yeah, good luck to you guys in Central & Eastern PA, MD, VA, NC and Western NY. There are flood warnings out for those areas in PA and Dr. Greg Forbes called it a "life-threatening" situation alittle while ago on TWC.

May was New England's month for flooding. It's the Mid Atlantic's turn now!

[terstorm1012]

It's shape reminds me of Floyd coming up the coast........

the flooding will be considerably worse then Floyd's was in Pennsylvania. This is more an Ivan-like event for us.

Yeah, good luck to you guys in Central & Eastern PA, MD, VA, NC and Western NY. There are flood warnings out for those areas in PA and Dr. Greg Forbes called it a "life-threatening" situation alittle while ago on TWC.

May was New England's month for flooding. It's the Mid Atlantic's turn now!

Life-threatening indeed. HArrisburg is now under a state of emergency and the floods crest is forecast to be higher then Ivan's was. Lower though then Agnes by about 8 feet, thank goodness.

[JamesFromMaine2]

91LINVEST.40kts-1011mb

you don't see a 40kts invest very often! lol

[wxman57]

91LINVEST.40kts-1011mb

you don't see a 40kts invest very often! lol

Surface pressures on the coast beneath the mid-level circulation are 1014-1017mb, not 1011 mb, though.