Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

MiamiensisWx · #381 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:55 pm

Looking very, very disorganized now and highly sheared!

WindRunner · #382 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 8:09 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:Honestly... I hate to see zeta go

Yeah, it's actually given me something kinda exciting to look forward to when I get home every day.

mike815 · #383 Postby **mike815** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:39 pm

yeah ill miss u zeta i really wanted that record broken. :cry:

mtm4319 · #384 Postby **mtm4319** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:41 am

mike815 wrote:yeah ill miss u zeta i really wanted that record broken.

Which record are you referring to? The ACE record was broken this morning.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #385 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:27 am

mtm4319 wrote:
mike815 wrote:yeah ill miss u zeta i really wanted that record broken.

Which record are you referring to? The ACE record was broken this morning.

I believe he was refering to the longest lasting storm to extend between two years.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #386 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:04 am

This really sucks...Come on Zeta :cry:

Coredesat · #387 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:25 am

The clouds around the center are starting to erode away. Looks like this is it for Zeta. At this rate, it may not be around at 4 AM.

05/0545 UTC 21.9N 46.6W T1.0/2.0 ZETA

Coredesat · #388 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:32 am

It's over:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060105 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060105 0600 060105 1800 060106 0600 060106 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.9N 46.7W 22.9N 44.4W 24.2N 43.2W 24.8N 43.6W
BAMM 21.9N 46.7W 22.7N 47.7W 23.6N 48.5W 23.8N 49.6W
A98E 21.9N 46.7W 22.3N 48.3W 22.7N 49.1W 22.6N 50.0W
LBAR 21.9N 46.7W 22.7N 46.7W 23.8N 46.2W 25.1N 45.8W
SHIP 30KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060107 0600 060108 0600 060109 0600 060110 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 24.3N 44.9W 20.8N 49.9W 17.2N 54.2W 15.0N 57.8W
BAMM 23.7N 51.4W 24.5N 56.2W 27.5N 58.4W 29.2N 57.2W
A98E 21.7N 51.3W 22.6N 54.8W 24.2N 58.0W 25.3N 60.1W
LBAR 26.1N 47.0W 26.2N 51.7W 28.3N 54.3W 24.7N 54.8W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.7N LONM12 = 44.6W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 42.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#389 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:10 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 050830
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED
MORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL
CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96
HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE
A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP
OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

#390 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:39 am

05/1145 UTC 22.1N 47.3W T1.0/1.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean

It's probable that the last advisorie will be at 10 AM EST.

I never thought that I would be making a thread like this in the last days of December and going to a new year in January with many pages as normally during hurricane season they are made.

Coredesat · #391 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 8:53 am

Zeta's still got some life left in it - 12z models take it back up to 35 kt, and no wonder - convection in the eastern half of the circulation is really kicking back up.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060105 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060105 1200 060106 0000 060106 1200 060107 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 47.3W 23.4N 44.9W 24.4N 44.0W 24.2N 44.8W
BAMM 22.2N 47.3W 23.5N 47.8W 24.2N 48.3W 24.3N 49.7W
A98E 22.2N 47.3W 23.1N 47.9W 24.0N 48.1W 24.2N 48.7W
LBAR 22.2N 47.3W 23.6N 46.9W 24.5N 46.5W 25.5N 46.2W
SHIP 35KTS 29KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 29KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060107 1200 060108 1200 060109 1200 060110 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.1N 46.6W 19.5N 51.8W 17.2N 56.2W 17.4N 59.6W
BAMM 24.1N 52.0W 26.3N 56.6W 31.6N 54.0W 32.9N 44.8W
A98E 23.4N 50.4W 26.1N 53.7W 28.4N 54.5W 31.0N 46.4W
LBAR 26.3N 47.6W 26.9N 52.8W 26.5N 53.8W 26.1N 54.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 47.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.7N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 43.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

mike815 · #392 Postby **mike815** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:36 am

Zeta is a Tropical Storm again. GO ZETA GO! i thought it was all over last night. ITS ALIVE!

#393 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 10:54 am

#394 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:18 pm

TRYING TO BURST BACK TO LIFE!

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #395 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:59 pm

These subtropical systems are highly tenacious with thresholds
in sub-optimal sst and shear conditions,

Margie · #396 Postby **Margie** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:35 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:These subtropical systems are highly tenacious with thresholds
in sub-optimal sst and shear conditions,

Agreed...mid-level shear is very low now, and this trough, like the last one, is aiding intensification as well. High-level shear is ripping off the tops of the convection though.

This trough is fracturing as well...it is stronger, and Zeta is moving more north now, so it is likely that the high shear will finish her, but I suppose there is a chance she could survive the trough, which is moving very quickly, and survive just a day or two longer. Apparently long enough, as of today I believe, to set another record.

#397 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:59 pm

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060105 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060105 1800 060106 0600 060106 1800 060107 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 47.9W 23.6N 45.7W 23.8N 45.6W 23.2N 46.9W
BAMM 22.7N 47.9W 23.7N 48.1W 23.8N 49.0W 23.5N 50.9W
A98E 22.7N 47.9W 23.3N 48.7W 23.8N 49.2W 23.8N 50.2W
LBAR 22.7N 47.9W 23.6N 47.7W 24.2N 47.7W 24.8N 48.5W
SHIP 35KTS 29KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 29KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060107 1800 060108 1800 060109 1800 060110 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.7N 49.0W 18.2N 53.2W 15.4N 56.4W 14.8N 58.3W
BAMM 23.3N 53.4W 25.2N 57.1W 27.8N 56.9W 27.8N 56.8W
A98E 23.2N 52.4W 26.9N 54.3W 30.2N 53.0W 31.2N 45.0W
LBAR 25.0N 50.8W 24.5N 53.7W 21.3N 54.8W 19.0N 52.7W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.9N LONM12 = 46.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 44.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SAME INTENSITY, 35 KNOTS, PRESSURE UP TO 1007 MB!!!

Astro_man92 · #398 Postby **Astro_man92** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:24 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Zeta reminds me of franklin now!

GO ZETA!!! :team:

Astro_man92 · #399 Postby **Astro_man92** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:30 pm

Water Vapor

YAY! 8-)

it looks like Zeta has another wave of dry air and shear coming but I hope it will survive through it

#400 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:27 pm

30kts

WHXX01 KWBC 060024
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060106 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060106 0000 060106 1200 060107 0000 060107 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 48.4W 22.9N 46.5W 22.0N 47.0W 20.6N 48.5W
BAMM 23.0N 48.4W 23.4N 48.8W 23.1N 50.2W 22.6N 52.4W
A98E 23.0N 48.4W 23.5N 49.1W 23.9N 49.6W 23.9N 50.8W
LBAR 23.0N 48.4W 23.8N 48.2W 24.0N 48.7W 24.0N 50.3W
SHIP 30KTS 23KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 23KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060108 0000 060109 0000 060110 0000 060111 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 50.4W 14.8N 53.1W 11.7N 54.9W 10.4N 56.5W
BAMM 22.9N 54.7W 25.2N 58.3W 28.3N 57.8W 28.0N 58.6W
A98E 23.6N 53.0W 27.6N 54.8W 31.4N 52.6W 33.5N 41.3W
LBAR 23.8N 52.5W 22.5N 55.6W 19.1N 53.9W 16.5N 53.2W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 48.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 47.3W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 45.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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