Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

quandary · #381 Postby **quandary** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:28 am

Yes, I concur that Epsilon is pulsing up again. Of course, we've been so ecstatic about our chances for snow tomorrow that I haven't been paying attention to it. Hopefully, Epsilon will continue to last for many more days and produce ACE energy. It doesn't look to be hurting anyone or have much of a shot to if it curves away from the Azores.

quandary · #382 Postby **quandary** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:29 am

Of course, I could be made to eat my words (and some crow) if Epsilon goes into the Carribean and becomes a major. But at least then we would strip 1950 of its title as most majors in a season and also highest ACE.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #383 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:41 am

Wik took down the ACE rating on the storms. That was was interesting to me. What is the current rating on this storm? COME ON BECOME MAJOR!!!

JamesFromMaine2 · #384 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:00 am

here are the latest T numbers:

05/0545 UTC 34.0N 36.6W T4.0/4.5 EPSILON

DoctorHurricane2003 · #385 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:18 am

This storm is nuts

#386 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:40 am

WHXX01 KWBC 050651
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051205 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051205 0600 051205 1800 051206 0600 051206 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.9N 36.7W 34.4N 34.0W 34.3N 32.1W 33.4N 32.0W
BAMM 33.9N 36.7W 33.6N 34.8W 32.8N 33.5W 31.7N 34.0W
A98E 33.9N 36.7W 33.3N 34.8W 33.2N 32.7W 33.5N 31.8W
LBAR 33.9N 36.7W 33.7N 34.4W 33.2N 32.2W 32.3N 30.7W
SHIP 65KTS 58KTS 49KTS 42KTS
DSHP 65KTS 58KTS 49KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051207 0600 051208 0600 051209 0600 051210 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.3N 33.7W 29.2N 38.4W 21.5N 40.2W 15.4N 39.3W
BAMM 30.7N 36.3W 28.1N 41.5W 22.6N 44.3W 18.5N 46.8W
A98E 33.1N 32.6W 29.2N 33.7W 24.4N 34.7W 21.1N 32.8W
LBAR 30.8N 30.5W 28.3N 28.9W 28.3N 29.5W 28.9N 28.6W
SHIP 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.9N LONCUR = 36.7W DIRCUR = 110DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 38.8W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 34.4N LONM24 = 41.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 986MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

WindRunner · #387 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:20 am

Is anyone else watching this thing leave the floater view? It's a little annoying, the SE part with the corroding eyewall will be gone from view shortly.

#388 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:23 am

WindRunner wrote:Is anyone else watching this thing leave the floater view? It's a little annoying, the SE part with the corroding eyewall will be gone from view shortly.

For sure they will change the position later today.

#389 Postby **dizzyfish** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:32 am

Morning everyone,

Just when I thought it was safe not to pay close attention to the tropics.........we finished putting up the outside lights yesterday and come in to hear the local FOX news saying Epsilon is a hurricane again and might go into the caribbean. :eek:

I almost fell over. I took it with a grain of salt because FOX always hypes things up. This moring it looks like most of the models dissipate Ep - but it looks as if a low forms in the gulf....... Gotta make you scratch your head. The guys at NHC must be going crazy.

bombarderoazul · #390 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:07 am

What better way to end the season than with a December Hurricane!

The little hurricane that could! and did!

#391 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:18 am

Can someone explain to me where, how, the nhc gets the info on Epsilon. Can a hurricane hunter plane go into Epsilon or is it too far away? I would think that with the strange way its acting researchers would want some accurate info of why its acting this way. Are the present estimates and info fairly accurate as to the status of Epsilon? Thanks.

bombarderoazul · #392 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:28 am

Since this might be the last Huraken of the season I think they should send a plane to check it out, instead of trying to guess why this storm is so strange. But, since the storm is not a threat to any land, I doubt they will send a plane to check it out.

#393 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:47 am

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051205 1200 051206 0000 051206 1200 051207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 35.5W 34.2N 33.1W 33.6N 32.1W 32.5N 33.1W
BAMM 33.8N 35.5W 33.3N 34.4W 32.3N 34.7W 31.2N 36.6W
A98E 33.8N 35.5W 33.6N 33.6W 33.4N 32.4W 33.3N 32.6W
LBAR 33.8N 35.5W 33.9N 33.1W 33.1N 31.1W 32.4N 29.9W
SHIP 65KTS 58KTS 49KTS 42KTS
DSHP 65KTS 58KTS 49KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051207 1200 051208 1200 051209 1200 051210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 35.7W 26.2N 39.8W 18.7N 42.0W 14.8N 43.2W
BAMM 30.3N 39.5W 27.3N 43.5W 23.7N 45.5W 21.0N 47.1W
A98E 32.4N 34.3W 27.6N 34.3W 23.0N 33.5W 19.6N 31.2W
LBAR 31.1N 29.8W 29.1N 29.9W 27.7N 30.7W 25.2N 28.5W
SHIP 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 102DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 986MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

12:00z Models are unchanged in intensity still at 65kts.

Weatherfreak14 · #394 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:18 am

Could this be a threat to the bahamas and the islands? Hopefully this will dissipate but it is still breathing right now.

#395 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:22 am

#396 Postby **sponger** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:45 am

Wow! I disapear for a weekend of football and drinking and we still have a hurricane and now forecast to head south and west! I dont give it a chance of affecting land, but this is a freaky season.

Go Noles!

#397 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:21 am

#398 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:23 am

This looks well interesting.

#399 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:28 am

They moved the focus of the floater more to the south.Still looks good after being so long in cool waters but as another member pointed out this system originated within a cold core system so it can survive a long time in cool waters.

#400 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:39 am

I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY
MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS
AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

:uarrow:

Quote from Avila at discussion at 10 AM EST and below from the public advisory.He has a sense of humor that is good to see from them.

HURRICANE EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...FUTURE INTENSITY
UNCERTAIN...

:uarrow:

From the public advisory header.

Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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