Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SoupBone]

So far, the GFS looks to be sending a major into the TexMex region again, actually into northern Mexico after it makes landfall. It's shown this solution once or twice already.

[SoupBone]

So I'm a little more concerned now because it looks like the GFS ensembles show up today with a lot more member support, and quite a few heading into the gulf now too. When the GFS was alone, I didn't think much of it. Waiting on the Euro now.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[FireRat]

The GFS is now developing the original vorticity in the EPAC. The second part that splits off and becomes a major in the GOM is still a big question.

From USTropics' post and from wxman, it's an area that is known to generate false alarm storms. I wonder if an EPAC system ends up happening when this is all said and done.

Yea who knows, maybe the EPAC will keep stealing the Atlantic's thunder.

Might actually be the most plausible scenario considering how things have been so far this season.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS is most likely wrong but it is incredible that the GFS is still insisiting on development in a little under 120 hours. I haven't been paying much attention to each GFS run so I was wondering if development is moving up in time because if it isn't then it is likely a phantom.

[lsuhurricane]

The GFS is most likely wrong but it is incredible that the GFS is still insisiting on development in a little under 120 hours. I haven't been paying much attention to each GFS run so I was wondering if development is moving up in time because if it isn't then it is likely a phantom.

Development is at 110 hrs per the latest GFS run. Thats getting mighty close. It has not delayed in the slightest. What a test of the ole GFS!

[SoupBone]

The Euro still shows nothing, pretty much a complete opposite to the GFS at this point.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro now eventually develops in the EPAC, just off of Mexico.

[SoupBone]

12z Euro now eventually develops in the EPAC, just off of Mexico.

Unreal. I guess I'll go watch the Euro ensembles now, maybe they'll send it to Hawaii.

[SoupBone]

I'm going to bump this just to ask, does the lack of wxman today mean he's working hard right now (not good) or that he took the day off and is biking in Houston right now?

[BobHarlem]

Not as strong as on the previous run, but a bit further north, but then bends further west later. On the east side near Puerto Rico is the east atlantic wave, which it's not developing at all again...

[Nimbus]

Not as strong as on the previous run, but a bit further north. On the east side near Puerto Rico is the east atlantic wave, which it's not developing at all again...

https://i.imgur.com/cmDdFoR.png

https://i.imgur.com/51hFgRU.png

This model run is valid September 4th and the wave we have been tracking in the current location is somewhat weaker. The BOC buoy has been showing rising pressure trends since Wednesday. There was some thought it might merge or get picked up by the tail end of the front but that wouldn't take 9 days.

[SoupBone]

Not as strong as on the previous run, but a bit further north. On the east side near Puerto Rico is the east atlantic wave, which it's not developing at all again...

https://i.imgur.com/cmDdFoR.png

https://i.imgur.com/51hFgRU.png

That landfall I'm pretty sure is a little further south than the last run. Truly in Mexico and not a TexMex solution.

[Astromanía]

We all here will be very thankful if a system decides to come towards us, we really need the rain

[SoupBone]

So the GFS ensembles for the most part line up with the GFS path but not intensity obviously. But most members show a Mexico or south Texas landfall with only a few north of that.

[SoupBone]

Looks like the GFS is finally caving to the ensembles with a hurricane headed into Mexico. Let's see if that starts a trend.

[SoupBone]

And the GFS ensembles send most of the members into extreme southern Mexico. I can't really tell if it's the same system but some look like they make it into the EPAC.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS will not give up on this wave

[USTropics]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/1013026798981890118/unknown.png

GFS will not give up on this wave

It's starting to slowly back off in the last few runs. Vorticity is now consolidating near Yucatan peninsula (instead of near Jamaica) and we can see in the last 6 runs the trend has been delayed strengthening and a further SW displaced system:


The most likely outcome has always been for the mean wave axis to crash into Central America (along with the vort maxima). Given the ensemble trend below, I anticipate the GFS model suite later today will drop this system entirely (perhaps a few more runs with BOC systems before gradually correcting to the other global models):

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS trend graphic for the past 7 days, focused on next Sunday, Sept. 4. With each run, it's like pulling the handle of a slot machine to see what pops up. GFS is still the only model forecasting any development in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf. It also doesn't develop the wave in the Tropical Atlantic that all the other models are developing.