Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
10 out of the 13 runs of the GFS have at least a tropical storm hitting the islands. Maybe the models will meet in the middle again with a weak TD.
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gatorcane
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
Moving really slow in Bahamas and gaining strength but now this is all long-range
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
SFLcane wrote:Mathew take 2 lol
was just going to say.. Mathew again.
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Fishing
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
SFLcane wrote:Mathew take 2 lol
Bite yo tongue !! Really glad this is long range....
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
My first absurd long range impact from a model since I moved to Raleigh. What a great day! 
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
glad to see the Canadian and UKMET drop this.
Development, while as I said is non zero, remains unlikely. TOO MUCH SAL. Just look at how fast this is moving. SAL OUTBREAK. If you have a strong low level jet, you have SAL. Worst case may be a Chantal from 2013
Development, while as I said is non zero, remains unlikely. TOO MUCH SAL. Just look at how fast this is moving. SAL OUTBREAK. If you have a strong low level jet, you have SAL. Worst case may be a Chantal from 2013
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
@TropicalTidbits
The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously favorable for tropical activity for this time of year. May have to watch the region mid-week.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884093388861132800
The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously favorable for tropical activity for this time of year. May have to watch the region mid-week.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884093388861132800
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
and an we please change the misleading thread title? This is not a strong wave
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gatorcane
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
A lot of GFS ensemble support. I count 17 GFS ensembles there:
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
@EricBlake12
Large scale stability is just tough in the July tropical Atlantic even in the favorable years. Always danger lurking
Large scale stability is just tough in the July tropical Atlantic even in the favorable years. Always danger lurking
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
Well guess who is back. Euro 96hr has the vorticity again.
Last edited by blp on Sun Jul 09, 2017 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
blp wrote:Well guess who is back. Euro 96hr has the vorticity again.
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Weather150
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Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
Very weak from the Euro. It's more realistic compared to the past runs, where it showed no wave when it was obvious the wave could maintain a defined vort as it tracks across the MDR.
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
SFLcane wrote:Ecmwf not showing much.
It has it very far south almost crashes in CA. If it was further north like the GFS it would develop. At least it is showing it now again.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
blp wrote:SFLcane wrote:Ecmwf not showing much.
It has it very far south almost crashes in CA. If it was further north like the GFS it would develop. At least it is showing it now again.
Southern position due to it being weak.
Like I said before, the GFS Parallel is a good mean between the OP GFS and the OP Euro.
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TheStormExpert
Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSE of CV Islands
Alyono wrote:and an we please change the misleading thread title? This is not a strong wave
What to you is considered a strong TW? Btw I'd say development chances are at or near 50/50 right now.
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