TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[jhamps10]

Look at what recon just found.....

SXXX50 KNHC 270733
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 28 KNHC
0723. 1646N 07256W 01458 5014 229 019 198 158 022 01479 0000000000
0724 1648N 07255W 01462 5019 243 021 206 150 024 01478 0000000000
0724. 1649N 07254W 01477 5025 251 026 218 154 027 01486 0000000000
0725 1651N 07253W 01442 5033 264 025 236 144 028 01444 0000000000
0725. 1653N 07253W 01530 5042 296 042 260 118 046 01523 0000000000
0726 1654N 07252W 01503 5061 256 030 232 156 036 01476 0000000000
0726. 1656N 07251W 01481 5076 208 015 220 160 020 01439 0000000000
0727 1657N 07251W 01463 5072 161 026 206 172 029 01425 0000000000
0727. 1659N 07250W 01448 5062 144 044 192 172 050 01421 0000000000
0728 1701N 07250W 01460 5047 138 051 180 180 054 01448 0000000000
0728. 1703N 07249W 01471 5035 150 062 174 174 065 01471 0000000000
0729 1704N 07247W 01513 5023 137 069 156 156 069 01525 0000000000
0729. 1705N 07246W 01520 5019 120 063 146 146 065 01535 0000000100
0730 1706N 07245W 01562 5024 105 067 128 128 075 01573 0000000100
0730. 1707N 07244W 01551 5027 100 076 132 132 077 01559 0000000100
0731 1708N 07243W 01477 5032 098 070 138 138 075 01479 0000000100
0731. 1709N 07243W 01461 5027 100 063 142 142 065 01468 0000000100
0732 1711N 07242W 01461 5019 099 070 140 140 071 01477 0000000100
0732. 1712N 07242W 01474 5014 102 071 138 138 072 01495 0000000100
0733 1713N 07241W 01480 5013 096 076 136 136 078 01502 0000000100

[Wx_Warrior]

layman's terms please

[SouthFloridawx]

layman's terms please

Hurricane very soon.

[jhamps10]

basically they just found a wind speed of between 70-75 MPH AT THE SURFACE

[calculatedrisk]

78 kts flight level 1500 meters = 78 * .8 = 62 kts surface winds.

CAT 1 is 64 to 82 kts, so Ernesto is almost a Hurricane.

[Bailey1777]

Thunder44 said the winds were suspect though. Had a 1 in the last line.

[jhamps10]

did the weather not get the 2AM advisory, since they STILL have the 11PM advisory.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I believe (and not 100% sure) that the weather channel goes into a loop broadcast from 1am to 5am in some locations unless major something is happening, in which case they call in for 24/7 live support.

I know we have been in the loop for the last few hours.

[jhamps10]

ok if that is so, they why do they have the current satellite? And their radars of a tornado watch in indiana is current.

[Wx_Warrior]

cant believe ol slow poke ernie hasn't already garnered 'cane status

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I knew once this thing slown down in allowed that tutt to back. That this thing would go. Watch this thing become a cane for 5am. In maybe 80 knots with in 24 hours.


Just getting my self on record!

[Bgator]

Hey guys, i have a question. It looks to me like the three large areas of convection are parting in the center (this is so lamens terms right now but deal with me lol), is it possible that the center of circulation is relocating there because...i dunno, just a very interesting site.

Also, with what i've seen so far it does look like at least the convection is tracking more Northwesterly, however, that could just be because of shear and the LLC may still be moving WNW. Anyone elses take on this?

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

For the splitting i do not know, yet the NW motion i defenitly see with maybe a small NNW jog for like 2 frames, thats all...so the models may be on to something!

[PTrackerLA]

Just woke up to check up on things and wow the models have shifted east big-time. Can't believe Ernesto might hit the western Florida coast. And to think, yesterday at this time we all thought Texas!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

just like your local news, they record bits and pieces along with live broadcasts. I think the tropical stuff is looped at :50. Their "links" are digital, and may be reloading automatically behind the green screen. Since the 2am advisory is a new link location, it isn't linked automatically to the same site address as the floater image is. -my guess anyway

[PTrackerLA]

Eastern Gulf storm, won't make landfall west of the Panhandle IMO. Definately looks to be heading NW right now as well.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Mr. Lyons may have a cot set up in a closet there tonite! -and for the duration. This is when he makes his money! If he isn't broadcasting, he is analyzing or creating his reports for websites, radio stations, affiliate broadcasts, etc. Lots of coffee I'm sure!

[jhamps10]

Mr. Lyons may have a cot set up in a closet there tonite! -and for the duration. This is when he makes his money! If he isn't broadcasting, he is analyzing or creating his reports for websites, radio stations, affiliate broadcasts, etc. Lots of coffee I'm sure!

Actually I have not even seen him on at all the entire evening. It's been the met in charge of the brodcast.

[Bgator]

I keep staring at those sat loops and i see a defenite NW move looks like its trying to head for SW tip of Haiti and maybe EXTREME east cuba, if extrapolated....and Recon does show a NW movement between fixes...

[PTrackerLA]

I apologize if I sound crazy, I just woke from sleeping to check on things...

I'm starting to wonder if Ernesto will even make it into the gulf. Watching the latest images from the GHCC site, Ernesto is clearly heading NW right now if not NNW. Whether this is a temporary trend or just an illusion from shear I don't know given that it's night time. Ok now back to bed, carry on!

[clfenwi]

Recon showed quite a northward bump between the first and second fixes. Smoothing this out using the last fix from the previous mission yields a 9 hour average motion of 7 knots direction 302° , which is a WNW heading.

CORRECTED