2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WeatherBoy2000
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:29 am

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#361 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Sat Jul 19, 2025 10:08 pm

StormWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:At the point where the GFS run goes into August where we would expect conditions to hint towards development in the MDR & SW Atlantic… So far no indication of the “switch flipping”…

Well the switch doesn’t traditionally flip until around or after August 20th, usually. When August 20th gets into range in the model runs, you can probably expect signals to start showing themselves most likely.


The eps/gefs is showing the basin becoming more favorable shear-wise heading into the August, even if they aren't showing much in the way of development. So far, there's nothing that strikes me out of the ordinary about how the season is progressing.
6 likes   

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#362 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jul 20, 2025 11:54 am

Models seem to be slowly backing off the son of 93L. Mental aggregate of models and ensembles suggests an open inverted trough to a tropical depression. I do see the one 6Z Euro member with a near hurricane strength landfall in SWLA.

Ensembles with hints of another 93L type risk either side of Florida and another MDR risk. I think from the wave that just crossed the Prime Meridian.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/movies/m7irn/m7irn_loop.html
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6409
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#363 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 20, 2025 12:15 pm

TomballEd wrote:Models seem to be slowly backing off the son of 93L. Mental aggregate of models and ensembles suggests an open inverted trough to a tropical depression. I do see the one 6Z Euro member with a near hurricane strength landfall in SWLA.

Ensembles with hints of another 93L type risk either side of Florida and another MDR risk. I think from the wave that just crossed the Prime Meridian.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/movies/m7irn/m7irn_loop.html


Unlike for 93L, which had a hurricane on several runs at this point (within as little as 3 days), the ICON is much weaker with the son of 93L.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

jaguars_22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 600
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Location: Victoria TX

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#364 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Jul 20, 2025 12:46 pm

Must be a lot of wind shear or dust in the gulf that’s preventing these systems from getting stronger!
0 likes   

Stratton23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2569
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
Location: Katy, Tx

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#365 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jul 20, 2025 1:18 pm

Still worth watching in the gulf next week, I still expect a lemon to be issued in the next day or two, this is the kind of setup in which development could occur just offshore of texas and models end up not seeing it before it happens( imelda, humberto are two good examples ) , ive seen this play out too many times, the curvature of the texas coast can aid in development, would i be surprised to see a TD or low end TS move into texas next week? No i would not
3 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2247
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#366 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Jul 20, 2025 4:34 pm

Posting euro ensembles to get an idea of spots to wathc.. Behind the lemon (the red lines are from the wave that would be EAST of the highlighted area on the outlook Potentially something north of Bermuda, and a very very small chance in the Gulf or off the SE still.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StormWeather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 265
Joined: Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:34 pm

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#367 Postby StormWeather » Sun Jul 20, 2025 6:18 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Posting euro ensembles to get an idea of spots to wathc.. Behind the lemon (the red lines are from the wave that would be EAST of the highlighted area on the outlook Potentially something north of Bermuda, and a very very small chance in the Gulf or off the SE still.

https://i.imgur.com/HpMiOpJ.png

18Z GFS has what looks like a small 1010 mb tiny cyclone going through the Lesser Antilles and weakening as it moves into the eastern Caribbean.
0 likes   
Just an average cyclone tracker

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Stormlover70
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 183
Age: 55
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2024 5:31 am
Location: New port richey

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#368 Postby Stormlover70 » Mon Jul 21, 2025 12:30 am

Too hostile for anything
0 likes   

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#369 Postby TomballEd » Mon Jul 21, 2025 11:44 am

Stratton23 wrote:Still worth watching in the gulf next week, I still expect a lemon to be issued in the next day or two, this is the kind of setup in which development could occur just offshore of texas and models end up not seeing it before it happens( imelda, humberto are two good examples ) , ive seen this play out too many times, the curvature of the texas coast can aid in development, would i be surprised to see a TD or low end TS move into texas next week? No i would not


A lemon seems possible but models have backed off even more. I don't expect development but I am hoping the weak inverted trough brings some rain late week/weekend. The upcoming week will be hot. That troughiness looks like it will persist, ensembles develop an occasional low either side of Florida.

Hints the MDR (not for 94L) may become less hostile in early August although I think there is a better chance of an EPac TC than an Atlantic TC through about August 5th.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2247
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#370 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Jul 21, 2025 12:24 pm

That wave east of 94L eventually winds up in the Gulf on the 12z gfs (goes over the keys August 1st into around mobile on the 3rd). I have to wonder when the happy hour GFS effect starts to kick in on some of these. (Right now it's nothing)
0 likes   

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#371 Postby TomballEd » Mon Jul 21, 2025 3:59 pm

BobHarlem wrote:That wave east of 94L eventually winds up in the Gulf on the 12z gfs (goes over the keys August 1st into around mobile on the 3rd). I have to wonder when the happy hour GFS effect starts to kick in on some of these. (Right now it's nothing)


Which is a sweet looking wave right now coming off Africa. Some GFS ensemble support for that wave. Some GFS (and even a little Euro ensembles) support for a system of non-tropical origin to develop either side of Florida at various times in the next 2 weeks. Is there a free image hosting site? Image and Imgur aren't working. I'd rather not pay. There is a free imgur which doesn't work. I tried adding an i to the URL

https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe <--Sweet looking wave test adding the letter i to url. [imgur]https://i.imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe[/imgur]
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1600
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#372 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jul 21, 2025 6:01 pm

TomballEd wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:That wave east of 94L eventually winds up in the Gulf on the 12z gfs (goes over the keys August 1st into around mobile on the 3rd). I have to wonder when the happy hour GFS effect starts to kick in on some of these. (Right now it's nothing)


Which is a sweet looking wave right now coming off Africa. Some GFS ensemble support for that wave. Some GFS (and even a little Euro ensembles) support for a system of non-tropical origin to develop either side of Florida at various times in the next 2 weeks. Is there a free image hosting site? Image and Imgur aren't working. I'd rather not pay. There is a free imgur which doesn't work. I tried adding an i to the URL

https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe <--Sweet looking wave test adding the letter i to url. https://i.imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe

:37:
Image
1 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#373 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 21, 2025 7:13 pm

It’s always annoying this time of year when the GFS continues pumping out EPAC systems and the Atlantic is crickets! :D
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4134
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#374 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 21, 2025 7:23 pm

Blown Away wrote:It’s always annoying this time of year when the GFS continues pumping out EPAC systems and the Atlantic is crickets! :D


Hence why my usual go-to model website is the ECMWF ensembles one: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks

GFS sometimes has a bias of being overzealous with EPAC convection/activity. I mean, it may very well be onto something here, but strong EPAC storm after strong EPAC storm is more of a "I'll wait until I see strong evidence of it otherwise" under these kinds of circumstances
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6409
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#375 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 21, 2025 7:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:It’s always annoying this time of year when the GFS continues pumping out EPAC systems and the Atlantic is crickets! :D


EPAC ACE climo is still 3-4 times that of the ATL in late July and early August.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#376 Postby TomballEd » Mon Jul 21, 2025 9:17 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:That wave east of 94L eventually winds up in the Gulf on the 12z gfs (goes over the keys August 1st into around mobile on the 3rd). I have to wonder when the happy hour GFS effect starts to kick in on some of these. (Right now it's nothing)


Which is a sweet looking wave right now coming off Africa. Some GFS ensemble support for that wave. Some GFS (and even a little Euro ensembles) support for a system of non-tropical origin to develop either side of Florida at various times in the next 2 weeks. Is there a free image hosting site? Image and Imgur aren't working. I'd rather not pay. There is a free imgur which doesn't work. I tried adding an i to the URL

https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe <--Sweet looking wave test adding the letter i to url. https://i.imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe

:37:
https://i.imgur.com/U90iR1T.png


So the letter 'i' has to be part of the url and free imgur doesn't provide it? I used giphy last summer until it was time to pay. I need to ask my wife if I can pay for image/gif hosting and a PPV weather model that shows the Euro before 3:30 am/pm CDT (when WxNerds ECENS are already becoming available). It exists, people quote Euro runs over an hour before I can see it.
0 likes   

hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 217
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#377 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Jul 21, 2025 9:32 pm

Watch the one coming into the gulf this week I think we see a depression or weak tropical storm
0 likes   

Stratton23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2569
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
Location: Katy, Tx

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#378 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Jul 21, 2025 9:48 pm

If their is any “ development in the gulf” later this week, its going to come from the upper low near the bahamas as it moves west into the gulf and interacts with the remnants of 93L , environment doesnt look that favorable, but cant rule out a weak depressiong/ mariginal TS forming just offshore of whats expected to be a texas “ landfall”, worth watching with a casual eye just in case, models dont always get these things right
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1600
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#379 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jul 21, 2025 10:10 pm

TomballEd wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
Which is a sweet looking wave right now coming off Africa. Some GFS ensemble support for that wave. Some GFS (and even a little Euro ensembles) support for a system of non-tropical origin to develop either side of Florida at various times in the next 2 weeks. Is there a free image hosting site? Image and Imgur aren't working. I'd rather not pay. There is a free imgur which doesn't work. I tried adding an i to the URL

https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe <--Sweet looking wave test adding the letter i to url. https://i.imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe

:37:
https://i.imgur.com/U90iR1T.png


So the letter 'i' has to be part of the url and free imgur doesn't provide it? I used giphy last summer until it was time to pay. I need to ask my wife if I can pay for image/gif hosting and a PPV weather model that shows the Euro before 3:30 am/pm CDT (when WxNerds ECENS are already becoming available). It exists, people quote Euro runs over an hour before I can see it.

I'm using free imgur on google
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

TomballEd
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 792
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#380 Postby TomballEd » Mon Jul 21, 2025 11:25 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote: :37:
https://i.imgur.com/U90iR1T.png


So the letter 'i' has to be part of the url and free imgur doesn't provide it? I used giphy last summer until it was time to pay. I need to ask my wife if I can pay for image/gif hosting and a PPV weather model that shows the Euro before 3:30 am/pm CDT (when WxNerds ECENS are already becoming available). It exists, people quote Euro runs over an hour before I can see it.

I'm using free imgur on google


Imgur on Google? This is what I tried to post earlier. Other than the letter i not in the URL, I think I'm doing it right.
[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe[/imgur]
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: fllawyer, Sciencerocks and 47 guests