2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[CyclonicFury]

Today marks 100 days until the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season!

[AnnularCane]

Today marks 100 days until the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season!

I don't know why, but the time seems to go faster after this milestone.

[cycloneye]

The latest readings of the sst anomalys from Coral Reef and OISST in MDR have been some decrease, but not a lot, and there is right now the +NAO.

[cycloneye]

The sea surface temparatures.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1760806293244178652

[Blown Away]

This map represents all hurricane tracks in the Atlantic Basin during years where there was a developing La Nina going into hurricane season and the strength was weak to moderate during ASO.
Years used (Very unscientific): 1898,1906, 1924, 1933, 1938, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1970, 2007 (I'm sure I missed a few).
The spray of storms is focused more west in the basin and is definitely in line with 2024 early season predictions and consistent IMO of stronger ridging and La Nina influence.
I assume adding the extra SST fuel and lower shear results in a very active season and there are a few representatives of this in the sample group.

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GpS2ZsyN/La-Nina-Years.jpg [/url]
This map represents all hurricane tracks in the Atlantic Basin during years where there was a developing La Nina going into hurricane season and the strength was weak to moderate during ASO.
Years used (Very unscientific): 1898,1906, 1924, 1933, 1938, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1970, 2007 (I'm sure I missed a few).
The spray of storms is focused more west in the basin and is definitely in line with 2024 early season predictions and consistent IMO of stronger ridging and La Nina influence.
I assume adding the extra SST fuel and lower shear results in a very active season and there are a few representatives of this in the sample group.

What I dont like at all is the very active Caribbean among those years mentioned.

[cycloneye]

As I posted yesterday, not a lot of a drop.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1761012386859729359

[DorkyMcDorkface]

As I posted yesterday, not a lot of a drop.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1761012386859729359

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1761185573480341747

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In case you're looking for a (nervous?) laugh: SSTs now subtracted from how they looked at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.

[mixedDanilo.E]

In case you're looking for a (nervous?) laugh: SSTs now subtracted from how they looked at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/290a2edf5059ab5a13a8f35ac426bd5ba0e91ccce567a2c6c842b818dce89281.gif

quite literally the exact opposite - incredible!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In case you're looking for a (nervous?) laugh: SSTs now subtracted from how they looked at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/290a2edf5059ab5a13a8f35ac426bd5ba0e91ccce567a2c6c842b818dce89281.gif

quite literally the exact opposite - incredible!

Yeah just about...

[Hurricane2022]

In case you're looking for a (nervous?) laugh: SSTs now subtracted from how they looked at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/290a2edf5059ab5a13a8f35ac426bd5ba0e91ccce567a2c6c842b818dce89281.gif

I think we need a "nervous laughing" Smilie ASAP. It would be very useful before and during this 2024 season.

[cycloneye]

In case you're looking for a (nervous?) laugh: SSTs now subtracted from how they looked at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/290a2edf5059ab5a13a8f35ac426bd5ba0e91ccce567a2c6c842b818dce89281.gif

quite literally the exact opposite - incredible!

Yeah just about...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3387b2d70141329b01b4656fb87072330a86290cb9b837939dbe05a23468f4df.gif

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

[Cpv17]

quite literally the exact opposite - incredible!

Yeah just about...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3387b2d70141329b01b4656fb87072330a86290cb9b837939dbe05a23468f4df.gif

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

[Hurricane2022]

Yeah just about...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3387b2d70141329b01b4656fb87072330a86290cb9b837939dbe05a23468f4df.gif

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

But it would be important to observe the situation there, since we don't know if we can have something strong there that could cause problems somewhere close to the USA or the Caribbean, like some systems similar to Irma and Isabel...
Sometimes they are little things that may seem insignificant but sooner or later they can end up being big enemies for us if we ignore them, even if it is for a brief moment, for example the aforementioned Irma. If I'm not mistaken, at the beginning of his life that guy seemed to pose no significant risk to Florida, Cuba... But time passed and the worse happened. It was horrible but it could have been even worse.

[NotSparta]

Yeah just about...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3387b2d70141329b01b4656fb87072330a86290cb9b837939dbe05a23468f4df.gif

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That's a big part of what controls how active the season is so it's not something to ignore

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah just about...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3387b2d70141329b01b4656fb87072330a86290cb9b837939dbe05a23468f4df.gif

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That area has the highest correlation with seasonal activity though.

[weeniepatrol]

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That area has the highest correlation with seasonal activity though.

To be fair, this early in the year, it does not.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1266107330417979392

[cycloneye]

Can I say those famouus words? "Season Cancelled"

[Cpv17]

Not only is the MDR very warm, but also the Caribbean and that is what worries me the most, as I and many members of S2K live in these neck of the woods.

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That's a big part of what controls how active the season is so it's not something to ignore

Yeah but if they form out there (depending on the steering, of course) a lot of those won’t impact land and your average person doesn’t give 2 cents about fish storms. Fish storms are for the true weather nerds to marvel over.