2023 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS going with 941MB

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS going with 941MB

https://i.postimg.cc/CdTnpY5w/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-32.png

The globals can do well when they agree, especially with large envelope systems as this one should be. But to Kingarabian's point got to see it to believe it for something really strong, C5 monster types. There needs to be a period of quick RI to achieve potential. At some point, as do much El Ninos do, whether it's this one or in Sept/Oct you look for that monster.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT. Much more ACE comming for this basin.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the
basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF doesn't have TCG until 17N and as a result is much weaker. Although I like how far south the AEW question crosses Central America, the rate of consolidation ---> TCG shown by GFS tends to be questionable, which would reduce how much time it has over warm SSTs from the onset of TCG relative to what the GFS shows.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with yet another hurricane in the long-range:

[gatorcane]

El Niño really lighting up the EPAC:

[cycloneye]

2. Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while moving toward
the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western
portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Extratropical94]

Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 99E is up

[gatorcane]

GFS going with 933MB:

[Ntxw]

Pretty remarkable the consistency of nearly all the guidance (even ICON) of this sprawling upcoming system.

[Extratropical94]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro track:

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over Central America and the far eastern Pacific is
producing a large area of disturbed weather. Environmental
conditions are anticipated to be conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the
early or middle part of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

GFS turns this to Baja California but Euro does not do that.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like soon to be 90E is slowly getting organized south of CentralAmerica. If this does what GFS has been showing, it will be a powerful hurricane, but the track is not clear as GFS and CMC slam Baja California but Euro does not.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1690766424069828609

[Ntxw]

CMC does it too. Maybe we'll get recon on it since it has a chance to effect the states.

[gatorcane]

Wow