Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Kingarabian]

Latest CMC develops this... In the EPAC

[N2FSU]

6z GFS shifts east again


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[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next several
days, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for
slow development by early next week when it moves across the central
and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

6z GFS shifts east again https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/14ffdd1573e3d91088c5237bae17d46e.jpg


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Ida Part 2?!?

Anyways, I’m guessing stable, dry air is the only inhibiting factor. I wish I knew how to post screenshots, but I just looked at the Deep Layer Wind Shear map and shear is minimal for most of the Caribbean, with a bubble of moderate shear between the Yucatán, Cuba, and Honduras.

[SFLcane]

Looking at the 850mb vort, it kind of looks to me like the main vort goes straight W into CA but then merges with another vort that somehow appears S of Jamaica before entering the gulf and exploding into a major. Seems pretty fishy to me.

If something does manage to get in the gulf though it'll be dangerous but I really can't trust the GFS right now considering how bad its been

Yeah that's what wxman was talking about earlier. Regardless, it shows a TexMex major on this run.

I still don't believe the GFS for a second. Modelcane.

[NDG]

The GFS is still all alone with the solution of another piece of energy following this TW after developing near Cuba past its 120 hr range forecast.
All models show this TW crashing into C.A. including the GFS.
Watch the GFS start dropping development once it starts getting within its 120 hr forecast

[SoupBone]

The GFS is still all alone with the solution of another piece of energy following this TW after developing near Cuba past its 120 hr range forecast.
All models show this TW crashing into C.A. including the GFS.
Watch the GFS start dropping development once it starts getting within its 120 hr forecast

If there is one certainty in all of this, it's that either the GFS is going to be crowned King, or it is going to spectacularly crash and look pretty pathetic in all of this.

[NDG]

The GFS is still all alone with the solution of another piece of energy following this TW after developing near Cuba past its 120 hr range forecast.
All models show this TW crashing into C.A. including the GFS.
Watch the GFS start dropping development once it starts getting within its 120 hr forecast

If there is one certainty in all of this, it's that either the GFS is going to be crowned King, or it is going to spectacularly crash and look pretty pathetic in all of this.

It already looks bad with this particular TW, just 4-5 days ago it was showing this TW developing into a TS in the eastern Caribbean.

[aspen]

The GFS is still all alone with the solution of another piece of energy following this TW after developing near Cuba past its 120 hr range forecast.
All models show this TW crashing into C.A. including the GFS.
Watch the GFS start dropping development once it starts getting within its 120 hr forecast

It’s suspiciously close to where the AOI will be in 5 days, so either this is the hardest it’s trying to cover up a phantom as a legit TC, or it’s going to be right for like the second time this season. The first time was showing Bonnie’s precursor at a lower latitude than the Euro.

[NDG]

Euro ensembles support for development continue to drop in the NW Caribbean/GOM.



I wouldn't call this good support by the GFS ensembles of its operational run.

[USTropics]

While the GFS has consistently show this system developing, it's entirely dependent on vorticity concentrating towards the NE near Jamaica in 120 hours as the mean wave axis crashes into Central America.


Meanwhile, the ECMWF has also been persistent (and most other global models sans the ICON for some runs) in not developing this area. Valid at the same forecast hour, the 00z ECMWF has the wave axis a bit further west and no vorticity associated anywhere in the central Caribbean.


A few reasons to be skeptical:
(1) this is a known area to have false positives in both the v16 GFS (operational) and v15 GFS (ensembles):


(2) The GFS is having issues resolving the trough off the east coast/subtropics. The ULL it spawns undercuts the ridging, and this seems to slow down the wave axis and favor vorticity on the northern flank. You can see this in the last 4 run trend:


Is it dynamically possible for this outcome to happen? Absolutely, but it requires a lot of moving pieces to occur simultaneously, and until other models forecast this I'm skeptical the GFS is exhibiting some biases here.

[SFLcane]

While the GFS has consistently show this system developing, it's entirely dependent on vorticity concentrating towards the NE near Jamaica in 120 hours as the mean wave axis crashes into Central America.
https://i.imgur.com/277AGKv.png

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has also been persistent (and most other global models sans the ICON for some runs) in not developing this area. Valid at the same forecast hour, the 00z ECMWF has the wave axis a bit further west and no vorticity associated anywhere in the central Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/OgpVHWV.png

A few reasons to be skeptical:
(1) this is a known area to have false positives in both the v16 GFS (operational) and v15 GFS (ensembles):
https://i.imgur.com/EZN2mCF.png

(2) The GFS is having issues resolving the trough off the east coast/subtropics. The ULL it spawns undercuts the ridging, and this seems to slow down the wave axis and favor vorticity on the northern flank. You can see this in the last 4 run trend:
https://i.imgur.com/nq5gKoC.gif

Is it dynamically possible for this outcome to happen? Absolutely, but it requires a lot of moving pieces to occur simultaneously, and until other models forecast this I'm skeptical the GFS is exhibiting some biases here.

GFS has been correcting some.

[wxman57]

Either the GFS is now the best model ever, developing this monster hurricane when no other model hints at it, or it's just another modelcane.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS is now developing the original vorticity in the EPAC. The second part that splits off and becomes a major in the GOM is still a big question.

[Tireman4]

Either the GFS is now the best model ever, developing this monster hurricane when no other model hints at it, or it's just another modelcane.

I will say this, either way ( or whatever becomes of any of this), it is a good time to make sure your supplies are in order, your kit is stocked and you have your plans in place. It is that time of the year.

[SoupBone]

The GFS is now developing the original vorticity in the EPAC. The second part that splits off and becomes a major in the GOM is still a big question.

From USTropics' post and from wxman, it's an area that is known to generate false alarm storms. I wonder if an EPAC system ends up happening when this is all said and done.

[cheezyWXguy]

While I will admit, I have seen the gfs spin up a lot of false storms in this manner of formation, I think I remember that Ida last year formed in a fairly similar way. If its solution actually does verify, I’m not even sure I could credit the model, so much as say the blind squirrel finally found another nut.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1563207049013387266




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563207900083806208




It would be insane if the crazy GFS runs verified.

[aspen]

Yet another GFS run with a Laura or Ida wannabe in the Gulf next week. Development starts just 4 days from now.

If this is a phantom, it sure is trying its hardest to convince us it’s not.

[ElectricStorm]

Mean Cat 4 on the 12z GFS, 937mb. Still looks pretty suspect though