Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Just a thought, but what if what we have been seeing on the Para isn't as crazy as we think it is? Perhaps the same movement but much less dramatic. I could definitely see this getting pulled NW, N, and then NNE out of the Caribbean. Then after that the ridge fills in somewhat and it gets turned back to the NW for a while before the next front comes in and sweeps it out. Instead of a Z shape coming out of the Caribbean, it would be more of a backwards S.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I can continue to enjoy the rest of my birthday! Wake me up if things get ominous again!

Thank you!!

[underthwx]

At this point I can continue to enjoy the rest of my birthday! Wake me up if things get ominous again!

Thank you!!

Happy birthday!

[gatorcane]

If this system doesn’t end up impacting the US/Florida, it might just be the last opportunity, at least for anything else significant this season (fingers crossed), looks like a major front showing up on the long-range Euro:

[TheStormExpert]

Instead of days of our lives S2K should be..

“ As the models turn ”

Relax folks models will continue to flip flop for a few more days until something forms. GEFS can and I bet will shift westward again. Some of these posts are predictable depending whether some models go east or west.

Sounds like a good soap opera to me!

Another idea is “As The Tropics Churn”

[SFLcane]

Gfs para joins the gfs now taking this through the Bahamas.

[boca]

At this point I can continue to enjoy the rest of my birthday! Wake me up if things get ominous again!

Thank you!!

The Storm Expert Happy Birthday

[tomatkins]

If this system doesn’t end up impacting the US/Florida, it might just be the last opportunity, at least for anything else significant this season (fingers crossed), looks like a major front showing up on the long-range Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/8ckvhxms/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh120-240.gif

Definitely. Climatology says that November landfalls are almost non-existent, and given that the models arent really showing any activity in the Caribbean after this storm, thats what we would be talking about.

[underthwx]

Instead of days of our lives S2K should be..

“ As the models turn ”

Relax folks models will continue to flip flop for a few more days until something forms. GEFS can and I bet will shift westward again. Some of these posts are predictable depending whether some models go east or west.

Sounds like a good soap opera to me!

Or...a 2k classic hit station....come on baby light my gyre....sorry....I'm watching the Doors movie....

[ronjon]

12z Euro has a broad 1006 mb low in the NE GOM next saturday am. Can't tell if its from the western Caribbean system or not with low resolution and 24 hr frames.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS has a pretty devastating impact to New England if it were to occur.

[toad strangler]

If this system doesn’t end up impacting the US/Florida, it might just be the last opportunity, at least for anything else significant this season (fingers crossed), looks like a major front showing up on the long-range Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/8ckvhxms/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh120-240.gif

Definitely. Climatology says that November landfalls are almost non-existent, and given that the models arent really showing any activity in the Caribbean after this storm, thats what we would be talking about.

I believe there have been just 2 landfalls of a hurricane anywhere in the CONUS in November since 1851. The most recent being Cat 2 Kate in 1985. The other was in 1935 un named as a Cat 2. Both hit FL from completely different directions.

[underthwx]

Instead of days of our lives S2K should be..

“ As the models turn ”

Relax folks models will continue to flip flop for a few more days until something forms. GEFS can and I bet will shift westward again. Some of these posts are predictable depending whether some models go east or west.

Sounds like a good soap opera to me!

Another idea is “As The Tropics Churn”

Lol

[psyclone]

Florida (peninsula) is on the verge of pulling off the ultimate dodge job wrt tc hits. When one considers the number of tropical systems that passed over or near the western tip of Cuba this is all the more remarkable.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro develops only a 1006mb very broad low and brings it into the FL Big Bend region next Saturday morning.

[TheStormExpert]

If this system doesn’t end up impacting the US/Florida, it might just be the last opportunity, at least for anything else significant this season (fingers crossed), looks like a major front showing up on the long-range Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/8ckvhxms/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh120-240.gif

Definitely. Climatology says that November landfalls are almost non-existent, and given that the models arent really showing any activity in the Caribbean after this storm, thats what we would be talking about.

In two weeks the odds of something striking the U.S. drop drastically. We’re almost there, I can see light at the end of the tunnel!

[gatorcane]

Almost there but one more hurdle still with this SW Caribbean system. Models could shift back west easily. We are still in the long-range. Happy bday TheStormExpert!

[SFLcane]

To think this storm is 8 days away per some GEFS ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1317156767432847367

[SFLcane]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

[TheStormExpert]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

I thought the development process begins early-mid next week?