Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[northjaxpro]

That storm complex has actually been moving sw from ne all afternoon. Line of storms blew through baton rouge around 2 then a shield of light rain developed behind it. This happened yesterday as well just not as intense. Will begin to die out in a couple of hours.

Actually CYCLONE MIKE, the area I referenced in my post above which flared up the past few hours flared entirely over water in the GOM. I am thinking you are referring to that big complex over land which flared up due to daytime heating and drifited southwest from Baton Rouge toward the LA coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Saved Satellite Loops.

Plenty of moisture to work with if shear can decrease enough this time.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I said earlier that it looked to be dying out but it is firing up even more storms and a lot more packed in. Will it last all night though is the question. Funny that the NHC has not even mentioned this as a possibility. They are the experts though and should be the forecast to follow.

[TheStormExpert]

I said earlier that it looked to be dying out but it is firing up even more storms and a lot more packed in. Will it last all night though is the question. Funny that the NHC has not even mentioned this as a possibility. They are the experts though and should be the forecast to follow.

The Atlantic overall is very hostile from shear to SAL/Dry Air to even too cold SST's. It's a wait and see situation IMO.

[Steve]

00 Nams do essentially nothing but stretch out the new front across the Gulf. No idea if the globals follow suit.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I said earlier that it looked to be dying out but it is firing up even more storms and a lot more packed in. Will it last all night though is the question. Funny that the NHC has not even mentioned this as a possibility. They are the experts though and should be the forecast to follow.

They haven't because there is no reason to do so. It's just a few storms that are weakening and nothing else. Storm Expert summed it up pretty nicely.

[tropicwatch]

Things are becoming much more hospitable in the northern GOM. I look for a lemon from the NHC at the next advisory.

[NDG]

0z GFS drops development.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Welp fellas this thing is not going to form if models are dropping it. Everyone have a good night and glad it is dying out or not forming.

[Hammy]

I have pretty low confidence that anything will develop from this trough, but I'd still wait for the full group of models to come out (and wait for a couple of runs) given that the GFS has practically failed to develop any of this year's storms until about 24 hours beforehand.

[Stormcenter]

If one or more models don't develop anything in the GOM then we should give the area no chance for development?
Doesn't that work both ways? So should I evacuate every time a model shows a cat.4 hurricane heading
my way in a week? Sorry but I'm not into that warm and fuzzy feeling about what models predict. They are
good some times they just as bad at other times. Just my opinion.

Welp fellas this thing is not going to form if models are dropping it. Everyone have a good night and glad it is dying out or not forming.

[NCSTORMMAN]

If one or more models don't develop anything in the GOM then we should give the area no chance for development?
Doesn't that work both ways? So should I evacuate every time a model shows a cat.4 hurricane heading
my way in a week? Sorry but I'm not into that warm and fuzzy feeling about what models predict. They are
good some times they just as bad at other times. Just my opinion.

Welp fellas this thing is not going to form if models are dropping it. Everyone have a good night and glad it is dying out or not forming.

Seen this before I got off and no I am not saying that exactly but without model support from most of the models rolling out now. No mentioning from the NHC about it and the area not being able to keep convection and spin up I would say chances are dying. It looked good earlier but that has happened all week in this area. Chill out man it was my opinion. We are all entitled to one whether you like it or not. I am no weatherman but I haven't seen any pro mets on board or the people that truly matter.

[tropicwatch]

I would not write off the northern gulf just yet. Movement of thuderstorms south of Panama City indicate a circulation, wind directions from buoys in the area also indication circulation, sustaining and building convection tonight and upper level winds are indicating an anitcylone, if conditions hold we might be seeing something begin.

Station 42039 (LLNR 141) - PENSACOLA - 115NM ESE of Pensacola, FL Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
Station SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg true )
Station PCBF1 - 8729210 - Panama City Beach, FL Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )

[NCSTORMMAN]

I do agree with one thing and the thing is spinning but NHC has ignored it so it makes me wonder why would they do that if something had a chance.

[Steve]

GFS is qpf (further west initially) and at least partial parameter for NAM. CMC has been the one showing a blob and energy. It shows an 1011mb initially on the panhandle at 1113 before retrograding for a day and a half then sort of puts more low pressure in the ne gulf. It's whatever. Maybe a slight break from some of the recent hot days for Gulf of Mexicans.

[NCSTORMMAN]

GFS is qpf (further west initially) and at least partial parameter for NAM. CMC has been the one showing a blob and energy. It shows an 1011mb initially on the panhandle at 1113 before retrograding for a day and a half then sort of puts more low pressure in the ne gulf. It's whatever. Maybe a slight break from some of the recent hot days for Gulf of Mexicans.

Until the NHC takes notice nothing to worry about especially without model support.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro shows nada!

[NDG]

This year the Euro is making the GFS look good close to home, it has forecasted more ghost storms than what the GFS has failed to forecast a storm. I am big time disappointed with the Euro, the UKMET is just as crazy if not crazier than the CMC and those of you who study the models closely and not biased cannot argue with my statement

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I agree with you NDG. The EURO has not performed well so far in this tropical season, but with the hostile conditions across most of the basin, there has been inconsistency amongst the other models as well. We will see how it goes with the models as we head into the meat of the tropical season.

[Steve]

GFS is qpf (further west initially) and at least partial parameter for NAM. CMC has been the one showing a blob and energy. It shows an 1011mb initially on the panhandle at 1113 before retrograding for a day and a half then sort of puts more low pressure in the ne gulf. It's whatever. Maybe a slight break from some of the recent hot days for Gulf of Mexicans.

Until the NHC takes notice nothing to worry about especially without model support.

I never said I was worried. I was reviewing what the models were doing. However, don't think there haven't been numerous times when S2K was out front on discussions ahead of anything official. Navy model sort of follows the GFS with a piece of energy pushing farther west toward the Texas coast. It doesn't amount to anything except some lower pressure. Also, watching the models can sometimes get you clues on how they evolve or how you need to adjust them for bias or what they are outputting.