Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

#361 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:08 pm

Which area is the models developing, the area around 38W?

KWT · #362 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:10 pm

The thing that give this credit is the GFS was way to quick to take Bertha northwards and with Bertha looking like a fairly weak system past 120hrs looking at the offical forecast there probably won't be much northwards unless this develop fairly quickly from now on.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #363 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:12 pm

First the thing has to develop. In that is looking to be around at least 48-72 hours from now before the models even start. I would not even start to get excited intil a burst of convection forms. I will give this 30 percent chance of becoming a depression in the next 96 hours.

I would not take the gfs seriously personally out past 96 hours.

Aric Dunn · #364 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:13 pm

18z has a track similar to Georges

#365 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:15 pm

18Z Nogaps rolling in and continues to join the rest of the medium range models of potential development around 35W during the next 48. Given the strong and consistent model consensus I know feel confident that formation of a cyclone is close to iminent. Details and analysis later.

18Z Nogaps loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008071218

Extremeweatherguy · #366 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:18z has a track similar to Georges

You are right. If the 18z run were to verify exactly (which is doubtful), then the track would be eerily similar to that of Georges in 1998.

Ed Mahmoud · #367 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:25 pm

It had an obvious rotation (at what level, I don't know, but it seemed like at a fairly low level judging from the visible satellite) when we had visible satellite, and cloud tops near apparent center now cooling below -60ºC.

Has colder tops than Bertha. Well, it did until the last frame, when Bertha popped a cold one.

I can't see rotation on the IR, but I suspect it is still there.

I suspect if it had a floater, IR2 would show it. Resolution too low on full mid-Atlantic loop.

canegrl04 · #368 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:00 pm

So when is this going to be an invest?

#369 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:02 pm

8 PM Discussion about new wave with low:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 29W S OF 14N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
10N29W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE
SSMI/AMSRE ALSO INDICATES A BULGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW NW
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-32W

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #370 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:03 pm

canegrl04 wrote:So when is this going to be an invest?

Maybe midday on the 14th based on the models?

#371 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:04 pm

canegrl04 wrote:So when is this going to be an invest?

A nice big burst of convection would send it to investhood.

Aric Dunn · #372 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:08 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

the red circle being the area depicted in the discussion

the lower black circle is this one here
"AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-54W."

MiamiensisWx · #373 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:11 pm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Bingo!!! I made a good call on the introduction of the wave axis S of the Cape Verde islands... it's in the exact vicinity that I specified. Surface low development also occurred in the area as I anticipated.

I think the models were merely catching on to slower and more realistic development; that does not mean tropical cyclogenesis will not occur!

#374 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:12 pm

HURAKAN,you always bring us many fenomenal pics from all basins,and it would be important to see a closeup pic near the area of interest.

Aric Dunn · #375 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:18 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html

#376 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:59 pm

You can see in this far loop pic the rotation with that convection around 32w.

#377 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:05 pm

#378 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:09 pm

WV with two waves and low shown.

Aric Dunn · #379 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:14 pm

the wave shows up very well with clear turning going on.. the IR does not show it as well ... but with a surface reflection in place that whole mess that i circled earlier should come together as the wave at around 29w and 10n is moving faster than the area farther west and is already reaching that area ... so tomorrow is going to be interesting,.

canegrl04 · #380 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:04 pm

Looks like we have two players next week 8-)

Should be interesting days ahead

Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

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