T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

Media in South Florida already has this TD as their top story

http://cbs4.com/

[kenl01]

Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate..............

[HURRICANELONNY]

One thing you have to realize is the NHC relocated the center and I don't think as you look at the models that the coordinates @ F=0 in time equals the new location. The problem right now is the center is broad and until it gets it's act together will we know the true track.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[SouthFloridawx]

One thing you have to realize is the NHC relocated the center and I don't think as you look at the models that the coordinates @ F=0 in time equals the new location. The problem right now is the center is broad and until it gets it's act together will we know the true track.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

Yeah I saw that.. It was likely not initialized properly eventhough it's not much of a change ... 60 miles is 60 miles.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS ... 96 hours still essentially the same track as the 0Z - actually just a tiny bit north.

Where did u get your 12z gfs? Mines only at 90 h

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/

[Trugunzn]

THEREAFTER... THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FRACTURE... LEAVING
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND... TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM... AND IN ITS WAKE
GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND BY BUILDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN SHOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW A BLEND
OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS WILL BE USED...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml

[cinlfla]

Delete someone already posted the information

[storms in NC]

Don't mean to be dumb right now but I just can't think right. Haveing to deal with the flood and everything.
But any way is there a chance it would come here. The water is going down now. I have had no AC for 2 days. It would be the year of 1999 dennis then floyd. Now it would be TS Ernesto to TS Florence or hurricane. could some one give me a inside look here.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS - 132 hours continues weaker than the 0Z run, a tiny bit faster and more northerly.

Not enough difference to make much of a deal about. I'd call this run very consistant with the 0Z.

[MiamiensisWx]

Per 114 hours, it looks like the 12Z GFS is initializing the Mid-Atlantic and western Atlantic ridging anomalies much weaker than in the past few recent runs, with more dominant troughiness. Were this to verify, a more northerly landfall, if the Eastern Seaboard is impacted, may occur. Also, though, this run is also indicating a weaker system out of TD 6/Florence.

One thing to note is the absence of the positive anomaly heights over Canada in this new run. Unlike the past recent runs, this run, as of now, has the Canadian/Mid-Atlantic ridging anomaly much weaker. This is decidedly a variation from the consensus in it's other recent runs. Otherwise, in other respects, it is still somewhat consistent with the previous runs (0Z/06Z).

[MiamiensisWx]

GFS at 156 hours out... indicates weaker ridging and a more northerly turn near 62W vicinity...

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156m.gif

156 Hour creates a weakness in the ridge and an opportunity for this thing to scoot out. No whether GFS is underdoing the ridge remains to be seen.

[shaggy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_156m.gif

156 Hour creates a weakness in the ridge and an opportunity for this thing to scoot out. No whether GFS is underdoing the ridge remains to be seen.

if i remember correctly it seems in past NHC discussions they mention on numerous storms mostly in 04' when jeanne and the rest were approaching florida that the GFS showed them turning north but the NHC says the GFS often under does ridging?Is that a bias the GFS has often?

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_156m.gif

156 Hour creates a weakness in the ridge and an opportunity for this thing to scoot out. No whether GFS is underdoing the ridge remains to be seen.

The GFS has often tended to spuriously overamplify lows, creating weaker ridging more easily. This is the case with this run. Note how the run at 156 hours out shows signs of overamplifying the trough that is creating the weakness and weaker ridging. It also shows signs of developing a possible spurious, almost winter-type, deepening low at around 156 hours out. This run may be overamplifying the trough and weakness a bit.

[x-y-no]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_156m.gif

156 Hour creates a weakness in the ridge and an opportunity for this thing to scoot out. No whether GFS is underdoing the ridge remains to be seen.

Well, prior to Ernesto, I would have fairly confidently said that we know the GFS almost certainly underplays the ridge.

Now I'm not so sure. This may not be the GFS of years past ... (they do tweak the code, I believe)

[ConvergenceZone]

Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate..............

I have to agree with you there. For a tropical weather hobbyist, this is probably the most boring season I've had in the last several years, and no, this has nothing to do with the fact that they haven't affected land. The FEW storms that have formed have been the most pathetic systems I"ve seen and that's only if they develop...I'm still not sold on the idea of this depresson developing into a cane. It looks worse than it did yesterday, and the wave behind it looks worse as well. Will it ever end??? Or is this it???

[HURAKAN]

Not looking good right now.

[Stormavoider]

Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate..............

I have to agree with you there. For a tropical weather hobbyist, this is probably the most boring season I've had in the last several years, and no, this has nothing to do with the fact that they haven't affected land. The FEW storms that have formed have been the most pathetic systems I"ve seen and that's only if they develop...I'm still not sold on the idea of this depresson developing into a cane. It looks worse than it did yesterday, and the wave behind it looks worse as well. Will it ever end??? Or is this it???

May I suggest the Winter Weather forum.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=22

[theworld]

Anybody notice that TD6 sucking in moisture from the remnants of 98L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Is that a strong LLC developing there ?

Also looking like an eye popping out there where the L plot is. Don't know if it'll last, or is just some cloud openings, but its there.