2026 ENSO Updates

[Iceresistance]

The SOI does not cooperate.

https://i.imgur.com/yVqUCnt.jpeg

[url]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/url]

I already was aware of the noisiness of SOI rendering it unreliable in a lot of cases but Eric Webb really delves into it here:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2032814068407382070


We'll probably see the index eventually dip into negative territory as the event fully commits to the flip to +ENSO but the direction we're headed is pretty evident without analyzing SOI. Still questions to be answered regarding the flavor and what not, but unless we experience a 2014-esque type of failure I cannot envision anything weaker than a moderate-strong Niño.

The SOI index is about to get a lot more unreliable for a while because of Tropical Cyclone Narelle heading in the general direction of Darwin

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmQI2.png

[Kingarabian]

The SOI does not cooperate.

https://i.imgur.com/yVqUCnt.jpeg

[url]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/url]

I already was aware of the noisiness of SOI rendering it unreliable in a lot of cases but Eric Webb really delves into it here:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2032814068407382070


We'll probably see the index eventually dip into negative territory as the event fully commits to the flip to +ENSO but the direction we're headed is pretty evident without analyzing SOI. Still questions to be answered regarding the flavor and what not, but unless we experience a 2014-esque type of failure I cannot envision anything weaker than a moderate-strong Niño.

The SOI just needs to be used correctly. I agree the 30 day SOI is noisy. But 90 day is ENSO and is usually spot on regardless of ENSO flavor. 90 day SOI is +10 meaning that the atmosphere is still in -ENSO mode for now. Meaning the Walker circulation has remained strong over the past 3 months. Models and current obs still show this as being true with a sinking branch still over the dateline. However that is likely to change entering the summer and the 90 day SOI will likely tank by June. Especially if an actual El Nino is emerging which a lot of indicators show.

The SOI isn't predictive in the winter and spring but it can be very predictive by July. Meaning if it's July and the 90 day SOI is still +8 or higher a robust El Nino is not likely for JJA/JAS and neutral is more likely.

[cycloneye]

Will be different than 2023.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2034648178352386540

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Will be different than 2023.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2034648178352386540

Yeah even if the NATL warms a good bit, the more favorable Pacific configuration will likely prove a hindrance regardless.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2034630175204253994

[Iceresistance]

That GFS is insane, I wonder what if it keeps going with that forecast for the monster WWB


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmcce.png

[Ntxw]

Next downwelling KW will likely help the building warm waters at depth push east (new surge.) The surface is also coming in from the Costero event happening in the east. The next month or two will be emerging into warm ENSO.



You can see on the hovmollers diagrams each westerly wind event is progressively moving more eastward, despite calls of weaker than what the models were showing, didn't change the outcome of the ocean warming.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2034832119369703530

[cycloneye]

Boom. The westerlies are rolling.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the forecasts are ramping up for the upcoming WWB the next 7-10 days, occurring not just along the equator but well north of it as well indicative the extra-tropics are also playing a role. This is significant for El Nino growth and eventual coupling with the higher latitudes.

[Iceresistance]

Boom. The westerlies are rolling.

https://i.imgur.com/FkBHon2.png

Look at that WWB being modeled at the end of the run, that would be really crazy if it verifies.

[Ntxw]

Boom. The westerlies are rolling.

https://i.imgur.com/FkBHon2.png

Look at that WWB being modeled at the end of the run, that would be really crazy if it verifies.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2035000911085383821

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I wouldn't be surprised if the floor is as high as +1.5C at this rate. That was 2023's RONI peak (NDJ), mind you, and so far things are progressing to the point where this event could very well be stronger.

[Ntxw]

One thing to note when looking at WWBs movement, persistence, and mass is equally as important compared to actual wind values. While strong m/s wind speeds are nice to look at, longer term ENSO progression is more telling when it is persistent. It's not so much 2 steps forward 1 step back. We are not seeing resistance we would typically expect from a lower end event. This broader wind burst has been persistent for more than well over a month.



Once the body of warm water reaches the IDL, feedback mechanisms no doubt will keep the background forcing there and into the central Pacific.

[cycloneye]

We’re having a bigger WWB event at this time of the year than the 1997 or 1982 ninos and that says it all.

[StormWeather]

We’re having a bigger WWB event at this time of the year than the 1997 or 1982 ninos and that says it all.

So what does it all mean? Can you break it down?

[cycloneye]

We’re having a bigger WWB event at this time of the year than the 1997 or 1982 ninos and that says it all.

So what does it all mean? Can you break it down?

Is simple, a strong el niño is on tap for late summer and fall.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In late July of '24 we peaked at a record 17.15C in terms of avg global surface air temp. I think we could very well succeed that this year.

[Kingarabian]

One thing to note when looking at WWBs movement, persistence, and mass is equally as important compared to actual wind values. While strong m/s wind speeds are nice to look at, longer term ENSO progression is more telling when it is persistent. It's not so much 2 steps forward 1 step back. We are not seeing resistance we would typically expect from a lower end event. This broader wind burst has been persistent for more than well over a month.

https://i.imgur.com/ZY3pKtx.jpeg

Once the body of warm water reaches the IDL, feedback mechanisms no doubt will keep the background forcing there and into the central Pacific.

Also important that there are extended trade bursts over the IO.

[Yellow Evan]

Super Nino is probably in play if the modeled period of WWBs of ~20 knots verifies as shown by the GEFS and EPS. A WWB of that magnitude at least comes close to rivaling the legendary WWBs in the leadup to 1997 and 2015 El Nino. Most of those WWBs were aided by the development of a strong TC on either side of the equator (Cyclone Gavin in 1997 and Typhoon Maysak in 2015 are examples of such). If one of these WWBs sparks a notable TC, that would amplify the westerlies on the equatorial side of the storm and further elevate super Nino odds.

The positioning of this WWB north of the equator will also amplify an already strong +PMM as well. Via Ekman transport, said WWBs will also aid the warm pool that will surface in the eastern Pacific down the line.