2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[pmang6]

Disgusting. Say goodbye to SSMIS.

https://i.imgur.com/q1jOXip.png

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

[Category5Kaiju]

Disgusting. Say goodbye to SSMIS.

https://i.imgur.com/q1jOXip.png

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

Yes, this is a big deal. SSMIS is one of the hallmark tools we use to detect RI and EWRCs. It helped us detect that Otis was about to go nuclear, for instance.

The reason why you're not seeing much discussion on this is that Storm2k is a strictly apolitical forum, and given the circumstances behind why SSMIS is being discontinued, we're pretty much forbidden to talk about or reference that here. Even if that is the case, I think it's still worth acknowledging that this is quite a major loss in the hurricane-tracking world, and hopefully we're able to continue the legacy of SSMIS in some other shape, tool, or form, whatever that may be, to ensure proper communication is upheld and that lives are as safe as they can be during an impending storm.

[weeniepatrol]

Disgusting. Say goodbye to SSMIS.

https://i.imgur.com/q1jOXip.png

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

Yes, this is a big deal. SSMIS is one of the hallmark tools we use to detect RI and EWRCs. It helped us detect that Otis was about to go nuclear, for instance.

The reason why you're not seeing much discussion on this is that Storm2k is a strictly apolitical forum, and given the circumstances behind why SSMIS is being discontinued, we're pretty much forbidden to talk about or reference that here. Even if that is the case, I think it's still worth acknowledging that this is quite a major loss in the hurricane-tracking world, and hopefully we're able to continue the legacy of SSMIS in some other shape, tool, or form, whatever that may be, to ensure proper communication is upheld and that lives are as safe as they can be during an impending storm.

The new WSF-M satellite has microwave instrumentation. But SSMIS was on three DMSP satellites (F16, F17, F18) so this represents a net loss of two satellite microwave instruments, when coverage was already sporadic and inconsistent. The next WSF-M satellite is not slated to launch until 2028.

[weeniepatrol]

Disgusting. Say goodbye to SSMIS.

https://i.imgur.com/q1jOXip.png

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

Possibly more like the wrong forum, due to the hardline no politics. I don’t want it to turn into it, but I did want to make sure people are aware of this happening. That’s all.

[chaser1]

Awww, a little budget cutting won't hurt anybody. I mean..... what's the worse that could happen?

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1939654028956205201



Looks like it'll remain hostile for development through July.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1939654028956205201



Looks like it'll remain hostile for development through July.

The amplification in phase 4/5 is what's showing up on the Euro hovmoller with the standing wave appearing in the MC region. While the CFS has trended more favorably VP-wise it still isn't ideal. I think the last week of July into the beginning of August is when it finally disappears, and that will perhaps be the time we'll see more substantial activity begin in the Atlantic. Of course that's not to say a well-timed CCKW couldn't kickstart something in the deep tropics, but for the foreseeable future I wouldn't expect anything particularly significant



EDIT: want to add that the CFS warms up ENSO quite a bit during July, which may be partly to blame for the more hostile conditions in the Atlantic throughout the month. Doesn't seem likely with a persistent EWB coming up. Granted if the EPAC keeps going and WPAC starts getting active as well that would hamper things regardless

[tolakram]

Disgusting. Say goodbye to SSMIS.

https://i.imgur.com/q1jOXip.png

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

Possibly more like the wrong forum, due to the hardline no politics. I don’t want it to turn into it, but I did want to make sure people are aware of this happening. That’s all.

I'll chime in, please do not comment on this.

First I appreciate the fact that most of you understand this is a non political forum. It's usually impossible to judge the accuracy of social media statements or if the poster is exaggerating, so the best course of action is to not discuss. There are other places on the web for these discussions, not here, and certainly if you are in the US and generally concerned you can contact your representatives and voice that concern.

No harm, no foul, and not directed at any individual poster.

So yes, these conversations are generally shut down and shut down quickly. Other than noting that a source of information we use is missing there's not a lot we can do about it, nor is there anything productive in talking bout how much we dislike it.

Thanks.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

July CanSIPS observations:
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1939854394612199745


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1939860320463274026

[cycloneye]

Mr Webb goes like 2013.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1939859692081082654

[WeatherBoy2000]

Mr Webb goes like 2013.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1939859692081082654

Could be another back-loaded year:

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1939826806988669322

[cycloneye]

Ben Noll has a grim picture for the North Atlantic basin for the next few weeks.

@BenNollWeather
Atmospheric conditions look rather hostile toward significant tropical development in the Atlantic during the weeks ahead, with dry, dusty, stable and sinking air.

Forcing patterns appear most conducive to tropical systems in the Pacific.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1940780569601908915

[verruckt]

Really surprised theres not more discussion around this. Perhaps the wrong thread, but isn't this a huge deal? Microwave is the only thing that gives a clear look at structure in sloppy/developing storms and during ERCs, no? Seems rather catastrophic.

Possibly more like the wrong forum, due to the hardline no politics. I don’t want it to turn into it, but I did want to make sure people are aware of this happening. That’s all.

I'll chime in, please do not comment on this.

First I appreciate the fact that most of you understand this is a non political forum. It's usually impossible to judge the accuracy of social media statements or if the poster is exaggerating, so the best course of action is to not discuss. There are other places on the web for these discussions, not here, and certainly if you are in the US and generally concerned you can contact your representatives and voice that concern.

No harm, no foul, and not directed at any individual poster.

So yes, these conversations are generally shut down and shut down quickly. Other than noting that a source of information we use is missing there's not a lot we can do about it, nor is there anything productive in talking bout how much we dislike it.

Thanks.

I know you said please don't comment on this, but being somewhat close to this, there's nothing political about it.

It's strictly cybersecurity related. No one will see or hear full details about that, but at the end of the day (and anyone close to meteorology knows this) a lot of systems the US uses are wildly out of date. Some of which present massive risks.

Edit: It's not tied to funding issues either. It's simply an age and risk thing.

The full announcement is here https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/messages ... _0345.html which states:

IMPORTANT UPDATE: ESPC received Forwarded email from SOCC sent by the Deputy Director of the Office of Satellite and Product Operations reporting:



On June 30th, FNMOC had planned to decommission the DMSP ingest system in Monterey to mitigate a significant cybersecurity risk to the High-Performance Computing environment. However, late on Friday, June 27th, CNMOC received a request from Dr. Germain with NASA to postpone the removal and to continue processing and distributing DMSP data through July 31st.

In response, FNMOC has coordinated with CNMOC and is ready to continue processing the DMSP downloads received via N-Wave and share processed files via current systems and circuits. We ask that OSPO and the DMSP program acknowledge the change in date and the intent to continue regular scheduling, downloading, and distribution of DMSP data to FNMOC. An update service advisory will be sent and FNMOC now expects to decommission DMSP processing no later than July 31st.

[gib]

I know you said please don't comment on this, but being somewhat close to this, there's nothing political about it.

It's strictly cybersecurity related. No one will see or hear full details about that, but at the end of the day (and anyone close to meteorology knows this) a lot of systems the US uses are wildly out of date. Some of which present massive risks.

Edit: It's not tied to funding issues either. It's simply an age and risk thing.

The full announcement is here https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/messages ... _0345.html

If I'm not mistaken (and please correct me if I'm wrong!), SSMIS offers data which no other current product offers – it's irreplaceable right now. Given the importance of the data, is there a plan to supersede the old, insecure system with a new, secure one?

[Nimbus]

I'm still checking the gulf buoys for pressure drops and wind directions.
So let me get this straight, they were flying over Texas with a passive military platform and they received signals from extra terrestrials that might be a security issue if made public?

Insert figure of your favorite naked aliens here

[verruckt]

I know you said please don't comment on this, but being somewhat close to this, there's nothing political about it.

It's strictly cybersecurity related. No one will see or hear full details about that, but at the end of the day (and anyone close to meteorology knows this) a lot of systems the US uses are wildly out of date. Some of which present massive risks.

Edit: It's not tied to funding issues either. It's simply an age and risk thing.

The full announcement is here https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/messages ... _0345.html

If I'm not mistaken (and please correct me if I'm wrong!), SSMIS offers data which no other current product offers – it's irreplaceable right now. Given the importance of the data, is there a plan to supersede the old, insecure system with a new, secure one?

Nope... no plans I'm aware of or congressional support. I believe congress actually killed funding for DMSP (the defense weather satellite the SSMIS instrument flies on) in 2015. That's another story in and of itself, but the short of it is DMSP was a failing program rife with failures. This was something coming for a long time, and the people using the data just stuck their head in the sand and formulated no alternatives.

The only equivalent instrument I'm aware of is the Japanese AMSR2 that flies on the GCOM satellite.

There's also WSF-M buuuuut I don't believe feeds are available for that (another defense satellite).

[Category5Kaiju]

Per some of the more recent GFS/CMC/Euro runs (subject to change anytime in the near future of course), it looks like models have trended quite a bit less bullish on the future EPAC storms that they were initially predicting, and there also doesn't seem to be a whole lot predicted to go on in the WPAC (maybe some relatively weak storms here and there) for the next upcoming several weeks.

While no significant burst in activity is expected to happen in the Atlantic yet, I wonder if assuming the aforementioned trends hold that this may indicate a sign that the EPAC will finally quiet down after its strong early-season activity, indirectly paving the path for the Atlantic to really wake up at some point later this month.

[LarryWx]

Today the new monthly Euro seasonal outlook was released for August and beyond in the ATL basin. Compared to the prior monthly forecast, which was near the avg for the active period 1993-2015 for # of TS+/# of H and very slightly above the avg ACE, the new one is very slightly less active with very slightly below the 1993-2015 avg for # of TS+/# of H and right at the active period’s ACE avg.

The distribution of storms is similar to the prior forecast, which again suggests less activity from the NE Caribbean to Bahamas/FL/SE US/E Gulf vs last year’s horrendous season. It suggests near to very slightly below the active 1993-2015 activity in those regions. So, that wouldn’t mean quiet but instead less active than a terrible year. Fingers crossed this will be right, especially for FL/SE US, because another year like 2024 could be a real disaster for especially FL’s home insurance industry.

[cycloneye]

The Saharan air layer continues to be present in the MDR and is normal for july to have these outbreaks.

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1941877420774064178

[Teban54]

Chantal 2025 was named yesterday, July 5. The last iteration of the same name, Chantal 2019, didn't form until August 20.

It's kind of surprising that, despite the impression of an inactive start of the season (especially 2 weeks ago), we're still running ahead of 2019.

As a reminder, 2019 ended above average in both NS counts (18) and ACE (132). The following storm was Dorian.