2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing widespread disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the wave, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the
central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Ntxw]

Looks like another long-tracker signal is on the horizon. EPAC could be near 100 ACE by month's end or sooner.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like another long-tracker signal is on the horizon. EPAC could be near 100 ACE by month's end or sooner.

CMC agrees but the Euro and GFS are a bit pessimistic. That being said, global models are pretty horrible right now so it's possible we see another long tracker.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Yellow Evan Looks like the basin will be busy in the next 2 weeks.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the weekend or early next week while it
moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the central portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system during the next several days
as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far
western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week
offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Ntxw]

The orange is potential for long tracker, making Hawaiian direction on the Euro. Fernanda is the next name.

[Yellow Evan]

There have been 3 signals on ensembles for a bit now. UL flow for all three appears divergent at first glance. Global models still need to play catch up a bit before I become confident in intensity of any of the systems.

[Ntxw]

Tragic event in Lahaina, Hawaii. Whether indirectly or not, the pattern that yielded the passing of Hurricane Dora has proven both costly and deadly to the US anyway.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend or early next week
while it moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the central
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system during the next several days
while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far
western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week
offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward at about 15 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next several days while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward at about 15 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next several days while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The NHC site is not working. Where did you got the TWO from?

[Extratropical94]

The NHC site is not working. Where did you got the TWO from?

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ab/ ... two.ep.txt

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ab/ ... two.ep.txt

[gatorcane]

Wow GFS going nuts with this one

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 10
to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin and into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Invest 98E is up

[Ntxw]

So outside of 98E the models generally agree that a CA->Mexican coast hugger type large, sprawling system should form. Much like Eugene, will take some RI. But it is a fairly robust signal from the globals. Being El Nino, been waiting for one of these parallel to coast tracks to blow up something really strong i.e. a Linda, Rick, or Patricia ilk.

[cycloneye]

So outside of 98E the models generally agree that a CA->Mexican coast hugger type large, sprawling system should form. Much like Eugene, will take some RI. But it is a fairly robust signal from the globals. Being El Nino, been waiting for one of these parallel to coast tracks to blow up something really strong i.e. a Linda, Rick, or Patricia ilk.

However, looks like this time it will not curve into Mexico like Patricia.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to really like this Mexico coast hugger and brings it down into the 940s mbs

[cycloneye]

2. Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development
of this system is possible during the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Ntxw]

73+ units of ACE so far. Could see anywhere from 2-4 hurricanes at least in the next couple of weeks. El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

A large sprawling strong system off of the coast of Mexico... Have to see it to believe it.