jaxfladude wrote:
I DO NOT LIKE THAT SETUP AS GFS SEES IT!!!
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In the words of Hurricane Girl: Holy Crap!!!
I hope that is shows a turn to the north followed by a turn more to the NE and out to sea after a scare and not a hit on the US East Coast........
That looks scary until you look at the upper-level winds progged by the middle part of next week: HERE is the GFS 300mb forecast valid for next Wednesday. I think it'll be very difficult for any storm of any appreciable strength to make landfall on the eastern US coast in the face of 50+kt southwesterly 300mb flow. That would rip the storm to shreds. Now, if Florence becomes an intense hurricane, it will act to modify the upper-level environment some, but 300mb flow even close to the forecast would significantly weak any storm. Of course, models are also indicating southwesterly upper-level flow over the western Atlantic off the eastern US coast by this weekend. It will be very difficult for the storm to not gain significant latitude.
I continue to stick by my forecast of a turn west of Bermuda, with most probable landfall (if it even makes landfall) on the Canada coast as a hybrid or fully extratropical cyclone. Now, this isn't entirely dismissing a US hit by a strong storm, but I still can't see any decent hurricane hitting the US with a deep trough and ULL digging into the eastern US by the middle of next week, bringing relatively strong southwesterly upper-level flow over the western Atlantic by that time.
Personally, I think the only appreciable chance of a hit to the US as a strong hurricane would be if it, for whatever reason, stays well south of the projected track (more into the southern Bahamas region and towards Florida), where flow aloft will be much more conducive to a significant tropical cyclone. How Florence could stay this far south is the question...