TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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WxGuy1
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#321 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:08 am

jaxfladude wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:00Z GFS shifts further west
18Z GFS 138 hours
00Z GFS 174 hours


:eek: I DO NOT LIKE THAT SETUP AS GFS SEES IT!!! :eek:
In the words of Hurricane Girl: Holy Crap!!!
I hope that is shows a turn to the north followed by a turn more to the NE and out to sea after a scare and not a hit on the US East Coast........


That looks scary until you look at the upper-level winds progged by the middle part of next week: HERE is the GFS 300mb forecast valid for next Wednesday. I think it'll be very difficult for any storm of any appreciable strength to make landfall on the eastern US coast in the face of 50+kt southwesterly 300mb flow. That would rip the storm to shreds. Now, if Florence becomes an intense hurricane, it will act to modify the upper-level environment some, but 300mb flow even close to the forecast would significantly weak any storm. Of course, models are also indicating southwesterly upper-level flow over the western Atlantic off the eastern US coast by this weekend. It will be very difficult for the storm to not gain significant latitude.

I continue to stick by my forecast of a turn west of Bermuda, with most probable landfall (if it even makes landfall) on the Canada coast as a hybrid or fully extratropical cyclone. Now, this isn't entirely dismissing a US hit by a strong storm, but I still can't see any decent hurricane hitting the US with a deep trough and ULL digging into the eastern US by the middle of next week, bringing relatively strong southwesterly upper-level flow over the western Atlantic by that time.

Personally, I think the only appreciable chance of a hit to the US as a strong hurricane would be if it, for whatever reason, stays well south of the projected track (more into the southern Bahamas region and towards Florida), where flow aloft will be much more conducive to a significant tropical cyclone. How Florence could stay this far south is the question...
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#322 Postby ExBailbonds » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:12 am

clfenwi wrote:first post-eclipse look from GOES.

Image



pre eclispe (4:00 utc
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#323 Postby clfenwi » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:17 am

1. Re: ExBailbonds... that image is from 0645Z.

2. 06Z NHC guidance initialized with a heading of 295°, which is WNW.

WHXX01 KWBC 060657
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 0600 060906 1800 060907 0600 060907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 49.8W 19.3N 51.4W 20.4N 53.1W 21.4N 54.9W
BAMM 18.1N 49.8W 18.9N 51.4W 19.7N 52.9W 20.6N 54.4W
A98E 18.1N 49.8W 19.1N 51.9W 20.2N 53.9W 21.2N 56.1W
LBAR 18.1N 49.8W 19.2N 51.5W 20.5N 53.5W 21.9N 55.4W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 0600 060909 0600 060910 0600 060911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 56.8W 23.6N 61.0W 25.1N 64.5W 26.2N 66.9W
BAMM 21.3N 55.9W 23.0N 59.5W 25.4N 63.7W 27.1N 67.1W
A98E 22.1N 58.6W 23.5N 63.9W 24.0N 68.6W 21.0N 71.8W
LBAR 22.8N 57.6W 24.3N 62.4W 25.8N 66.1W 26.2N 68.4W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 87KTS 91KTS
DSHP 63KTS 76KTS 87KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 49.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 48.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 45.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM
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#324 Postby ExBailbonds » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:21 am

I stand corrected Sorry
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#325 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:12 am

Just for laughs...the A98E model is out to lunch! I know, what's new right, it's always out to lunch...But not normally this much!!! LOL

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
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#326 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:31 am

Looks like a fish...Or a whale just like this season.
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#327 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:00 am

The 5am disucssion talks about the trough/ULL in which they are having problems trying to time its development. In where this will turn. In also saying that the strength of this system has alot to do with how close/set up of the ULL. It could just as easly not ever become a hurricane if it gets to close. In 2006 go marching on!
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#328 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:21 am

That ULL does appear now to be moving West or SW though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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#329 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:55 am

Sure was quite a few folks here last night convinced of this westward or even SW movement, will be a bit surprised when they wake up looking for a significant shift in the track....
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#330 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:58 am

Image
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#331 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:03 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Sure was quite a few folks here last night convinced of this westward or even SW movement, will be a bit surprised when they wake up looking for a significant shift in the track....


I said it appeared to be doing the Wobble wars before we went into eclipse, what I do see off IR afterwards is that the system appears to have consolidated itself into one convection mass..
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#332 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:15 am

There was no "wobbling" going on. The "center" even now continues to be elongated and to the SW of the major convection.

What many were trying to do is the cardinal sin of tracking, a still as of yet fully developed system.

Using night-time imagery to track a "center."
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#333 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:25 am

^ Frankly the center is quite easy to track on IR this past night IMO. Right now its located smack in between the two convective masses (or maybe a lil SSW of the bigger one)
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#334 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:37 am

who here thinks that it is likly for Flo to make the recurve?
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#335 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:39 am

I'm not doubting a recurve, my only doubt is WHEN the recurve happens... GFS sure does seem to be getting further and further west on the recurves... and you will eventually get to the point where a recurve will make a landfall, FL, Carolinas, wherever...
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#336 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:46 am

I know we're getting close to the threshold of accuracy when it comes to the tropical models, but interestingly enough, they all show a sign of a bend to the west at the end of the run...

Image
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#337 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:48 am

I see recurve also. We shall see by late Fri or Sat as it approaches 30N 70-75w and the strength of the H5 and the Canadian high and the position of said highs. Right now Florence has first to get her act together. The one thing all the models are showing is a hurricane by 72 hrs. And this is going to be one big mother of a storm.
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#338 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:49 am

The end of those runs are what concern me... I'm very curious to see what the 12z runs will show, and whether or not this was an exception or the beginning of a trend..
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#339 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:53 am

One thing I will say...
Florence is taking off right now imo
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#340 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:56 am

Normandy wrote:One thing I will say...
Florence is taking off right now imo


Agreed!
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