T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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gatorcane
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#321 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 am

CapeVerdeWave excellent discussion. I think the NHC does not want to preclude the fact that it could be a US threat.
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#322 Postby cinlfla » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Here is an interesting snippet from the 11AM EST discussion highlighted in bold. As the center (LLC), based on the broad circulation, may have relocated to the south-southwest of the main convective area on this visible loop, which may indicate a more southerly track possibly through the middle term, it is interesting to note this (highlighted)...

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS.
THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.


In terms of a possible Eastern Seaboard landfall zone, it may well depend on the timing of this mid-level trough approaching the eastern United States that is progged by some of the model guidance to erode the western extent of where the Bermuda-Azores High merges with the Canadian ridging. If the trough pulls out faster or is as weak as it may possibly be, the ridging may possibly build back in and possibly result in a longer west-northwest or westward motion of Florence. This is supported by the possible south-southwest relocation of the LLC as well. The forward motion of Florence and the timing/intensity of the trough will be critical, as well as the strength of the ridging.


This is going to get interesting, this is better then a suspense novel.
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#323 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:The kicker is this shift will put Florence closer to 25/75


No model takes Florence as far west as 75W at this time.
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#324 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:57 am

gatorcane wrote:there is something wrong - the forecast track has it moving WNW over the next 24 hours but the advisory says it will move West over the next 24 hours....


I think the direction of movement advisory may be wrong. It's 290 degrees on the marine advisory. I think that's WNW or very close to that. Either way it's moving north of due west.
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#325 Postby cinlfla » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:58 am

Thunder44 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:there is something wrong - the forecast track has it moving WNW over the next 24 hours but the advisory says it will move West over the next 24 hours....


I think the direction of movement advisory may be wrong. It's 290 degrees on the marine advisory. I think that's WNW or very close to that.



Well if I'm tracking the right center its moving more westerly to my eyes.
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#326 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:58 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Here is an interesting snippet from the 11AM EST discussion highlighted in bold. As the center (LLC), based on the broad circulation, may have relocated to the south-southwest of the main convective area on this visible loop, which may indicate a more southerly track possibly through the middle term, it is interesting to note this (highlighted)...

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS.
THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.


In terms of a possible Eastern Seaboard landfall zone, it may well depend on the timing of this mid-level trough approaching the eastern United States that is progged by some of the model guidance to erode the western extent of where the Bermuda-Azores High merges with the Canadian ridging. If the trough pulls out faster or is as weak as it may possibly be, the ridging may possibly build back in and possibly result in a longer west-northwest or westward motion of Florence. This is supported by the possible south-southwest relocation of the LLC as well. The forward motion of Florence and the timing/intensity of the trough will be critical, as well as the strength of the ridging.


I agree, and this could be what the NHC is trying to get a handle on now. I posted something simililar earlier regarding the Canadian high. Going to be a tough forecast for all until late in the week and upper air data is added to the GFS.
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#327 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:00 am

sma10 wrote:Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board. :wink:


Was that REALLY necessary?
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#328 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:00 am

...one more thing as usual weaker in the next 24 hours is not good. The low level easterlies will be the main steering feature as refelcted in the NHC discussion/forecast...
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#329 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:00 am

Exactly sma10 - It's obvious we are looking at some kind of pull-up near the east coast.
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#330 Postby caribepr » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:01 am

sma10 wrote:Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board. ;)


Hopefully the recurve will happen BEFORE 65W and some of us won't be depressed at all 8-)
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#331 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:02 am

"Easterlies" not "westerlies"

Winds are named for the direction they come from.
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#332 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:04 am

Can someone update the thread title to TS Florence (I don't know how to do that...)?
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#333 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:04 am

CVWave, excellent discussion. The timing and parallel of the recurve really is going to be dependent on the location and future motion of the Azores/Bermuda High.

If that high retrogrades to the west at all....we'll see some trouble next week up the coast.
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#334 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:04 am

anybody think that maybe the NHC has showed a slight recurve at the end to not scare people in Florida. If they did not show the slight recurve people along the SE Coast of Florida would be getting a bit anxious.

The current track is safe because it shows no East Coast threat yet.
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#335 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:04 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
sma10 wrote:Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board. :wink:


Was that REALLY necessary?

I think one looses credibility when they forecast definite scenarios. I like to err on the side of caution and post about short term movement up to 3-4 days. I have found that if a ameture such as myself tries to go out on a limb past that time frame there really is no point as I don't know a lot of the dynamics of forecasting large synoptics such as shortwave's and ridges.

I will say this in the short term meaning 2-3 days worth.

Looking at the circulation it is more organized than I thought it would be this morning. Since there is little convection a more westerly course is fairly evident till it can get organized. It is obvious that at some point this is going to strengthen. Remaining in the low level flow it should begin to speed up even more.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#336 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 am

Shouldn't the title be changed to TS Florence now?
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#337 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:06 am

Sanibel wrote:"Easterlies" not "westerlies"

Winds are named for the direction they come from.


Oops, I fixed that, good catch
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#338 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:07 am

AnnularCane wrote:Shouldn't the title be changed to TS Florence now?


I guess Luis isn't here yet. :D
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#339 Postby cinlfla » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:08 am

caribepr wrote:
sma10 wrote:Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board. ;)


Hopefully the recurve will happen BEFORE 65W and some of us won't be depressed at all 8-)


It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.
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#340 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:10 am

cinlfla wrote:
caribepr wrote:
sma10 wrote:Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board. ;)


Hopefully the recurve will happen BEFORE 65W and some of us won't be depressed at all 8-)


It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.


An early recurve also puts Florence into Bermuda...
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