T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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shaggy
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#321 Postby shaggy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:40 am

boca wrote:If this storm develops I think it will take a Isabel track rather than a track towards the SE coast.My opinion because its already getting pulled more north.


isabel did hit the SE coast wasnt to bad of a storm for me i went thru the southern eyewall and it was really the weak side whereas 50 miles north had winds in the 90's.I just think this one looks to be a threat because of the "wording" it still has plenty of time for a full recurve.This may make people automatically say its a threat but it may be no threat at all!
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#322 Postby Duffy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:40 am

You know this is somewhat contriictory.....i mean we're here to track these storms and have some fun with them.
I am sorry folks, but to me there is no Drama, no Excitement in watching a Fish Storm.... Notice how quickly people stopped watching Debby when it become obvious it was going out to Sea
Its like we complain that nothing is out there.....but when something does devolop...we look for ways for it to Weaken or go out to Sea...in my opinion...yous can't have it both ways...either you like to Track Tropical Storms and accept what Mother Nature Gives us, or you don't...in my mind, there is no in between
Fish Storms are Boring...end of story!
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#323 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:41 am

The deep convection spread out and the circulation is more disorganized. Similar feature to underperforming Ernesto while he was in what was supposed to be prime conditions.
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#324 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:43 am

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#325 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:43 am

Sanibel wrote:The deep convection spread out and the circulation is more disorganized. Similar feature to underperforming Ernesto while he was in what was supposed to be prime conditions.


HAve you checked the quicksat yet? Because I beleive the cirulation is actually looking more better.
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#326 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:46 am

Anybody notice that TD6 sucking in moisture from the remnants of 98L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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#327 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:48 am

If you interpolate the latest GFDL it says Carolinas storm or Hatteras as a major (Hugo).
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#328 Postby theworld » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:49 am

Trugunzn wrote:Anybody notice that TD6 sucking in moisture from the remnants of 98L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


Is that a strong LLC developing there ?
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#329 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:50 am

Trugunzn wrote:Anybody notice that TD6 sucking in moisture from the remnants of 98L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


is that 98l to the southwest?
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#330 Postby Innotech » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:53 am

Duffy wrote:You know this is somewhat contriictory.....i mean we're here to track these storms and have some fun with them.
I am sorry folks, but to me there is no Drama, no Excitement in watching a Fish Storm.... Notice how quickly people stopped watching Debby when it become obvious it was going out to Sea
Its like we complain that nothing is out there.....but when something does devolop...we look for ways for it to Weaken or go out to Sea...in my opinion...yous can't have it both ways...either you like to Track Tropical Storms and accept what Mother Nature Gives us, or you don't...in my mind, there is no in between
Fish Storms are Boring...end of story!


That is entirely true. Everyone says they want every storm to be a fish, but that goes against the very nature of a tropical weather enthusiast. We WANT these storms to develop and threaten land, but perhaps in am uch weakened state. something to get the adrenaline flowing and the excitement going. If a storm doesnt threaten land, it simply isnt very fun to watch. Call it the dark side of human nature.
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#331 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:54 am

I think X98 is done for. I was high on 98 last night but it looks to me that the low has dissipated. TD6 finally won out....
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#332 Postby Zardoz » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:56 am

fact789 wrote:Is that 98l to the southwest?

Yes.
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#333 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:57 am

fact789 wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:Anybody notice that TD6 sucking in moisture from the remnants of 98L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


is that 98l to the southwest?


Yes, that's 98L southwest of TD 6, as I pointed out in my earlier post. It's one main reason TD 6 is slow to organize.
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#334 Postby gtsmith » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:00 am

Duffy wrote:You know this is somewhat contriictory.....i mean we're here to track these storms and have some fun with them.
I am sorry folks, but to me there is no Drama, no Excitement in watching a Fish Storm.... Notice how quickly people stopped watching Debby when it become obvious it was going out to Sea
Its like we complain that nothing is out there.....but when something does devolop...we look for ways for it to Weaken or go out to Sea...in my opinion...yous can't have it both ways...either you like to Track Tropical Storms and accept what Mother Nature Gives us, or you don't...in my mind, there is no in between
Fish Storms are Boring...end of story!


Perhaps the end of story for you. For those of us that enjoy watching and studying chaotic, dynamic systems in action every storm is of interest. Just because it's a fish does not mean it is without a lesson to learn or information to glean and perhaps improve our overall understanding of these systems, even if it proves out that we'll never fully understand them. If you're only looking for systems that threaten peoples lively-hood and lives and cause untold economic chaos then I feel very sad for you. Besides, it's easy to make that comment when you're up in the great state of maine and thousands of miles from any potential threat.
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#335 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:00 am

12z gfs just starting:

Image
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#336 Postby Zardoz » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:02 am

ROCK wrote:I think X98 is done for. I was high on 98 last night but it looks to me that the low has dissipated. TD6 finally won out....

Still some organization, but not like before. It needs to break free from TD6 to survive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#337 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:05 am

12Z run of the GFS is out to 66 hours so far. No significant difference in track from the 0Z run so far. It's a little weakre with the system, but not much and intensity doesn't mean much in the GFS runs anyway.

It does seem to be building the mid-level ridge a little stronger than the 0Z run did in the last few frames ... we'll see if that leads to a more westerly track later or not ...
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#338 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:07 am

x-y-no wrote:12Z run of the GFS is out to 66 hours so far. No significant difference in track from the 0Z run so far. It's a little weakre with the system, but not much and intensity doesn't mean much in the GFS runs anyway.

It does seem to be building the mid-level ridge a little stronger than the 0Z run did in the last few frames ... we'll see if that leads to a more westerly track later or not ...

Image
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#339 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:10 am

12Z GFS ... 96 hours still essentially the same track as the 0Z - actually just a tiny bit north.
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#340 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:12 am

x-y-no wrote:12Z GFS ... 96 hours still essentially the same track as the 0Z - actually just a tiny bit north.


Where did u get your 12z gfs? Mines only at 90 h
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