98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[JonathanBelles]

NRL TCFA

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/98L.INVEST/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

[Frank2]

We'd best hope that nothing forms - if we think gas prices are high now, wait until those northern Gulf oil platforms are shut for many days - then we'll see those $5 - $7 a gallon prices that CNN warned of last year...

Frank

[JonathanBelles]

oo never thought about that

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251230Z JUL 06//
WTNT 21 KNGU 251300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
050 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 97.0W TO 27.5N 96.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 96.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS CUR­
RENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY. DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALONG THE COASTAL REGION VICINITY OF
THE LOW CENTER. WIND SHEAR IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SHORT TO MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 84F(29C) ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF
MEXICO WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORE­
CAST IS NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 261300Z.

[JonathanBelles]

quasi-stationary???

will that rain make it to florida or is it a west GOm rainmaker only?

[Cyclenall]

Well since this has a TCFA to it, I'm giving 98L a 50% chance at becoming a Tropical Depression. It was at 20% last night but the TCFA always rises the chances.

First % chance of Invest 98L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 50%
Tropical Storm: 35%
Hurricane: 1%
Major Hurricane: 0.1%
Category 4: 0.001%
Category 5: Near 0%

[HURAKAN]

That TCFA was issued hours ago. Around 10:30 AM EDT.

[f5]

This doesn't even look like a monster Kat on the other hand was a mean as as it gets

[Derek Ortt]

TCFA was issued at 1300 UTC, 2 hours before the NHC TWO

Also, I would like to know how they got their low center. I do not see anything where they have their center. There is an MLC east of Brownsville; however

[GalvestonDuck]

One of you storm-repellants must be on the island today because everytime it looks like a severe band is moving onshore, it dissipates. Aside from some gusts this morning and one torrential downpour, I haven't had to endure much yet on the east end. On the west end, it was a bit more active earlier, but I still don't see much there on radar.

I hope everyone to the west, north, and east is doing okay.

[jasons2k]

Hmmm, well I've been looking at the radar loops and satellites I just don't see any defined circulation yet in the named area. It's a mess. You can clearly see the LLC west of Browsville on the loops from this morning, but in the last few frames it looks like the LLC there is breaking down and falling apart.

It looks like some circulation is trying to wrap near 26.6 and 96.6, which is quite a bit far north and is probably just a short-term vortex. However, that location is fairly close the radar site (55 NM) so it might be in the lower levels. Maybe a pro met could calculate the height of the beam from 55 nm out, but I dunno off the top of my head....

[mvtrucking]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251230Z JUL 06//
WTNT 21 KNGU 251300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
050 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 97.0W TO 27.5N 96.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 96.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS CUR­
RENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY. DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALONG THE COASTAL REGION VICINITY OF
THE LOW CENTER. WIND SHEAR IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SHORT TO MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 84F(29C) ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF
MEXICO WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORE­
CAST IS NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 261300Z.

North Northeast system movement?

[jasons2k]

Also, I would like to know how they got their low center. I do not see anything where they have their center. There is an MLC east of Brownsville; however

I agree - I don't see anything there either.

Is the center I am seeing at 26.6 and 96.6 the MLC you are referring to? It looks to me a MLC due east of Brownsville like you are saying but something else NW of there.

[TS Zack]

New Orleans is about to get into some heavy rainfall. If this boundary stalls, uh oh!

[Derek Ortt]

I'veonly seen something east of Brownsville today, moving to the north

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 251700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT TUE 25 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A NOAA P3 WILL
DEPART KMCF 27/1200Z FOR A GULF MAPPING MISSION

Derek,you who haved flyed in these NOAA P3 planes,what does this means,when they say Gulf Mapping?

[Johnny]

That's one heck of a wave we've got out there people.

[Stormcenter]

We'd best hope that nothing forms - if we think gas prices are high now, wait until those northern Gulf oil platforms are shut for many days - then we'll see those $5 - $7 a gallon prices that CNN warned of last year...

Frank

Agree!!!!

[Frank2]

The Navy mentioned Tampico earlier, but, the LLC is now SE of Brownsville - my guess is that the NHC will mention the possibility of a depression forming in their TWO of this afternoon.

Frank

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's one heck of a wave we've got out there people.

Just imagine if this "center" was 100 miles east. We would probably be looking at a strong TS right now.