Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

A new burst of convection over the center has formed indicating that Zeta is holding it's own.

[James]

Well, this is the Atlantic Ocean track summary but three days into 2006.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 040007
A. TROPICAL STORM ZETA (THIRTY)
B. 03/2331Z (139)
C. 23.4N/9
D. 42.7W/3
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS -03/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

47A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED 7NM FM NEAREST
DG AREA GIVING A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...BOTH MET AND
PT AGREE.

AODT: T4. (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI



Air Force sat estimates are at 3.0/3.0

[HURAKAN]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060104 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060104 0000 060104 1200 060105 0000 060105 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 42.5W 22.1N 42.1W 21.3N 41.2W 20.8N 38.8W
BAMM 22.9N 42.5W 22.4N 43.5W 22.2N 44.6W 22.9N 45.4W
A98E 22.9N 42.5W 22.8N 43.1W 22.8N 43.5W 22.9N 43.7W
LBAR 22.9N 42.5W 23.0N 42.4W 23.5N 42.6W 24.3N 42.8W
SHIP 55KTS 42KTS 23KTS 0KTS
DSHP 55KTS 42KTS 23KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060106 0000 060107 0000 060108 0000 060109 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 35.9W 18.5N 28.8W 18.5N 13.7W 24.7N 13.7E
BAMM 24.6N 45.6W 26.1N 47.4W 26.3N 52.4W 31.3N 53.6W
A98E 24.3N 43.9W 24.0N 44.4W 23.0N 46.9W 20.0N 52.2W
LBAR 25.6N 43.0W 27.0N 42.5W 27.1N 44.5W 26.9N 49.3W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 42.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 41.8W DIRM12 = 248DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 41.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM


NO CHANGE! 55 KNOTS - 994 MB

[WindRunner]

deleted, didn't need a third copy of the models

[Ivanhater]

wow, 3 people posting the same thing at the same time! it really is august! lol

[cycloneye]

wow, 3 people posting the same thing at the same time! it really is august! lol

Yes I posted but HURAKAN did it first and WindRunner was behind me all three posted by seconds of difference.But both WindRunner and me deleited our model posts.

[Ivanhater]

wow, 3 people posting the same thing at the same time! it really is august! lol

Yes I posted but HURAKAN did it first and WindRunner was behind me all three posted by seconds of difference.But both WindRunner and me deleited our model posts.

yes, the amazing thing is, that usually occurs in august or september because there are so many people on posting during the peak of hurricane season, im sure this doesnt happen much in january wow

[P.K.]

If this was August by the time three people had had time to post the models there would be a new page of posts to the thread. Sorry I didn't get to post them a 4th time.

[brunota2003]

65 MPH still, and a very ineresting discussion...:

Zeta is a tenacious cyclone and based on Dvorak classifications the
winds are at least 55 knots. The cloud pattern is impressive and
consists of an area of moderate convection near the center and a
cyclonically-curved convective band to the northeast. The outflow
remains established and there are no signs of strong shear. The
GFDL insists on making Zeta a hurricane as an upper-level sharp
trough approaches. This could be a case of trough interaction
aiding intensification. I will not be surprised if the GFDL
solution turns out to be correct. It has already beat ME a few
times. However...for the sake of continuity only...the intensity
forecast keeps Zeta with 55 or 50 knots for the next 24 to 36 hours
with a weakening thereafter.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 040230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006

...TENACIOUS ZETA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

Look how Avila starts the public advisorie with that header.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Simply unreal...wow...just wow...this active cycle....i think 1997 was
a crazy year for the WPAC...and 2005 for Atlantic is the crazy
year...wow....

[NCHurricane]

Code: Select all

The
GFDL insists on making Zeta a hurricane as an upper-level sharp
trough approaches. This could be a case of trough interaction
aiding intensification. I will not be surprised if the GFDL
solution turns out to be correct.

Wouldn't that be crazy? Go Zeta Go!

[senorpepr]

WTNT35 KNHC 040230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006

...TENACIOUS ZETA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

Look how Avila starts the public advisorie with that header.

Instead of Tenacious D... it's Tenacious Z!

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

Through 04/03Z, Zeta's ACE is 4.3900 x 10^4.

This makes 2005's total ACE 242.9124 x 10^4. The record is 243.

0.0876 x 10^4 from the record.

The next advisory on Zeta will secure 2005's lead.

[HURAKAN]

[Weather Watcher]

Check this out from Jeff Masters weather blog...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Hurricane Zeta what a name!!!

[mtm4319]

Looks to be a decrease in organization.