95L Invest Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NWS tampa bay said strong ridge through middle of next week, so I think this storm will likely not be a fish.

Maybe Frances repeat? Too early to tell...but that's my speculation. The models continue to underest. the ridge past 2 seasons.

[WeatherEmperor]

NWS tampa bay said strong ridge through middle of next week, so I think this storm will likely not be a fish.

Maybe Frances repeat? Too early to tell...but that's my speculation

Frances repeat? oh boy dont go there.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Even NHC doesn't know the exact reasons for the Bermuda High's position...

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Ortt, don't see it getting into the weakness. If anything, it looks like it will be a close call with the NE Islands, especially if a slow developer.

[Anonymous]

NWS tampa bay said strong ridge through middle of next week, so I think this storm will likely not be a fish.

Maybe Frances repeat? Too early to tell...but that's my speculation

Frances repeat? oh boy dont go there.

<RICKY>

Actually, I was speaking with Matt Carrier last night, and he too mentioned the *potential* for a Frances-type track. Trough misses, system pulls northwest...ridge builds, it shoots west.

[WeatherEmperor]

NWS tampa bay said strong ridge through middle of next week, so I think this storm will likely not be a fish.

Maybe Frances repeat? Too early to tell...but that's my speculation

Frances repeat? oh boy dont go there.

<RICKY>

Actually, I was speaking with Matt Carrier last night, and he too mentioned the *potential* for a Frances-type track. Trough misses, system pulls northwest...ridge builds, it shoots west.

oh i know. my fault. i was just messin around. Frances last year was a bit scary cause I remember how Floyd scared south florida in 1999 but didnt do much of anything so Frances scared me too. Fortunately not too much damage here but my uncle had his entire roof blown off in Boca Raton. ouch.

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

CMC May be catching on to this Ridge rebuilding issue too..Look at the 12Z

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

Ouch. This most likely will be a big event in the next week or two. Whether its an East Coaster(most likely) or a FL event remains to be seen. Btw Naso im looking forward for your video update on this.

[cycloneye]

EASTERN ATLANTIC 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N32W MOVING
WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND
36W IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE AROUND THIS CIRCULATION
FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. ITCZ SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND
44W.



2:05 Special Feature Discussion of 95L.

[gkrangers]

Ouch. This most likely will be a big event in the next week or two. Whether its an East Coaster(most likely) or a FL event remains to be seen. Btw Naso im looking forward for your video update on this.

Its just as likely it recurves, too...its really too early to speculate on one scenario..

[cycloneye]

04/1700 UTC 12.5N 33.3W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Anonymous]

Ouch. This most likely will be a big event in the next week or two. Whether its an East Coaster(most likely) or a FL event remains to be seen. Btw Naso im looking forward for your video update on this.

Actually, I would tend (WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY EARLY AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN) to think that this would be more likely for Florida. An Andrew-type or a Frances-type track could indeed occur (NOT SAYING IT WILL BE AS STRONG BY ANY MEANS)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ouch. This most likely will be a big event in the next week or two. Whether its an East Coaster(most likely) or a FL event remains to be seen. Btw Naso im looking forward for your video update on this.

Actually, I would tend (WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY EARLY AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN) to think that this would be more likely for Florida. An Andrew-type or a Frances-type track could indeed occur (NOT SAYING IT WILL BE AS STRONG BY ANY MEANS)

Wahts your thoughts man? I mean on your explanation?

[drezee]

Large Area of Influence and the preceding tail is a common trait of long track major hurricanes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it will be a very busy week of tracking and monitoring for the next week, but monitoring is what I love about weather.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Model plots shifting further left. Not sure what the Yellow Plot Model is doing...

[mahicks]

It's a fish, no its a threat, no its a TD, no its TS, No its a______________
(Fill in the Blank.)

I have NEVER seen this much back and forth over an Invest......Ever.

I PRAY that we start this thread fresh when it becomes a TD. Since last night, the pages of the thread doubled, but the quality of most of the posts halved

[deltadog03]

i would think everyone from the GOM to eastern seaboard needs too watch this developing system....not just the east coast

[Ivanhater]

its just got that shape for developing quickly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Durning the last few years the models been doing that. Watch it do a Emily or Dennis.