2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GEFS was a little less enthusiastic.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT Code Red:

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This feature is soon expected to lead to the
development of an area of low pressure, where environmental
conditions appear favorable for further development. A tropical
depression is now likely to form by this weekend. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, moving
parallel to but not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature in the next day or two, where
environmental conditions appear favorable for further development. A
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but
not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Ntxw]

GFS and CMC are hinting at another long tracker past the 2nd system. Not much from the Euro on that one yet but worth noting.

[Yellow Evan]

Encouraging upper level setup + fits with +ENSO climatology.

[somethingfunny]

What's that thing over on the far west of this view, is that former TD 4-E or something else? I feel like I've seen lesser systems get named in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

What's that thing over on the far west of this view, is that former TD 4-E or something else? I feel like I've seen lesser systems get named in the Atlantic.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/979/IkaKMh.gif

Unofficial former TD.

[Kingarabian]

What's that thing over on the far west of this view, is that former TD 4-E or something else? I feel like I've seen lesser systems get named in the Atlantic.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/979/IkaKMh.gif

It had a robust LLC and sheared convection for like 48 hours and wasn't classified.

[Kingarabian]

Models coming in much weaker on that 30/70 system now that they show it moving NNW/NW off of the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate a broad area of low pressure has formed a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico in
association with a tropical wave. Although the shower and
thunderstorm activity with this disturbance remains disorganized,
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system during the next few days. A tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 97E is up.

[Yellow Evan]

[lilbump3000]

Impressive Mid-Level Ridging across the East-Central Pacific basin.

[Extratropical94]

Another one

1. Central Part of the Basin:
An area of low pressure could form by the end of the week several
hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development
of this system is possible next weekend while it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Central Part of the Basin:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico by the end of the week. Some slow development
of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Part of the Basin:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south or
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the
week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Two additional signals on 12z EPS.